Whats your secret?

[Michael Parisi]

What are the best indicators of a horses likeliness to win and where do you think the best correlations are between the best horse and the worse horse?

 

[YO-YO]

Confusing question…well at least to me.That’s why I don’t always bet the race, but I always look for the top horse on E-Ponies.  So give me an “atta boy” for trying.

[Bri]

To many variables and they change every race and each race is different. All I can say from experience is once you have made a decision go with your gut and dont change it unless something obvious like a scratch happens. Trust your gut. I mean after you use what ever strategy works for you and you make a decision then trust your gut and dont change it at the last min on a whim. Trust you and live with the outcome.

[jacked]

1st thru 3rd, how would you rank speed , class , and pace ratings ? Thanks.

[LongshotWhisperer]

It depends on the distance whether you use speed or pace as an indicator.  For example according to the book “Modern Pace Handicapping”  6 furlong and route races over 1 1/16 you want to use pace.  The rest are better facilitated by speed.  Dropping in class is always best if the times of the race merit a true indicator of class (5f  :55-:57; 6f 1:07-1:08; 6.5f 1:14-1:18; 7f 1:20-1:22; 8f 1:33-1:35; 1 1/16 1:39-1:42; 1 1/8  1:47-1:49; 1 1/4 1:57-1:59) I don’t care what the horse’s odds are if they meet these indicators.  So once I have a contender I look at the quarter times of their last race especially if it is close to the same distance of today’s race.  HINT: if the one of the horse’s fractional quarter time is the same as the leaders then you have a real contender to blow away the competition.  Also, when it comes to dirt races you want early pace whereas turf races do better with late pace.

[LongshotWhisperer]

HINT: if one of the horse’s fractional quarter time is the same as the leaders then you have a real contender to blow away the competition.

 

I need to point out that this quarter time is one of the top three quarter times.  Usually, in most races you have 4 quarter times.  So in Sprints you usually are looking at the 2nd quarter time.  For Routes you are most likely looking at the 3rd quarter time.

[turf]

OLD “post” but “What are the best indicators ”    no no no  What is the best indicator.

>

>

“post’ get the pun

[LongshotWhisperer]

This process can be time consuming although I have written a piece of BASIC software that does the calculations for me.  So you want to pick and choose your race that will given you the best return for your investment.  In most cases, I like MAIDEN races usually in the 6.5-8 furlong distance.  Run on the TURF and even BETTER if limited to FILLY/MARE races.  This combination reaps the GREATEST likelihood of a LONGSHOT winning.  I have mathmatical formulas that can tell you how much of your bankroll to wager based on win/lose percentage and average odds payout.  Another formula that will tell you how long it will take to DOUBLE your WINNINGS and another one that lets you bet every horse in the race as long as ONE CONDITION is met.

[jacked]

What are your formulas ?

[jacked]

What are your formulas?

[LongshotWhisperer]

Some of this is really old stuff so I have to review/search my old files to find it.  I posted a lot of this stuff before on E-Ponies but that was years ago before the E-Ponies system crashed and everyone had to start anew.  This is the bankroll (percentage system) and I will post more once I find the files:

 

The Kelly Criterion

The most common way to manage a bankroll is to pick a percentage of your bankroll you’d like to wager on each bet. The optimal method of doing this is known as the Kelly Criterion. The idea behind the Kelly Criterion is to maximize the speed at which your bankroll will increase while keeping your risk of ruin (the danger of losing your entire bankroll) as low as possible.

Calculating your Kelly Criterion is not too difficult. First, when making a bet, take your chance of winning that bet and multiply it by the odds you’re receiving. Then, take that number and subtract your chance of losing the bet. Finally, take the result of that step and multiply it by the odds again. The number you get is the amount of your

Here’s a pretty simple example. Imagine you believe you have a 50% chance to win a money line bet that offers you 3-2 odds (+150). First, we multiple the chance of winning by the odds:

.5 * 1.5 = .75

Next, we take .75 and subtract our chance of losing – 50%, or .5.

.75 – .50 = .25

Finally, we divide .25 by 1.5 (the odds on the bet), and get .167, or 16.7%. This is the percentage of our bankroll we should bet on this particular game.

However, it’s probably best to bet less than what the Kelly Criterion says you should bet. This is mainly because we tend to overestimate our chances of winning any given bet. For instance, while you might think that you have a 50% chance of winning the bet in the above example, the odds are that your actual edge isn’t nearly that big. It’s best to play it safe and bet less than what the Kelly Criterion suggests. While betting too much can be disastrous and even lead to losing your whole bankroll, the worst that can happen from playing it safe is that your bankroll grows somewhat more slowly – and in bad times, it can be the difference between saving your bankroll and going broke.

 

[LongshotWhisperer]

This portion will discuss betting on every horse in a race as long as one condition is met.  It also includes a simplified example of what percentage of the bankroll you should bet.  I still have to find the article on determining how long it will take to double your money which is based upon THE RULE OF 72 (Stock Market Calculation)

 

HORSE RACE MONEY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS CORRECTED

HORSE RACING MONEY MANAGEMENT

Let’s say you have four horses you want to play in a race and you would like to make $100 (or any amount) should one of your four horses win. This can be used for any number of horses in a race as long as STEP 3 condition is met (the total for all horses cannot be equal or over 1.00).

STEP 1 take all of the horses odds and subtract 1.00 from each one

HORSE ODDS NEW ODDS VALUE

A 10/1 becomes 9/1

B 5/1 becomes 4/1

C 10/1 becomes 9/1

D 20/1 becomes 19/1

STEP 2 Divide NEW ODDS VALUE into 1.00

A 1/9 = .11

B 1/4 = .25

C 1/9 = .11

D 1/19 = .05

STEP 3 total (add) the results from STEP 2

.11+.25+.11+.05 = .52

IMPORTANT Result from STEP 3 must be less than 1.00

STEP 4 subtract value from STEP 3 from 1.00

1.00-.52 = .48

STEP 5 Determine amount of money you want to win (I.E. $100)

STEP 6 Take result from STEP 4 and divide into value from STEP 5 (Amount you want to win I.E. $100)

$100/.48 = $208 This is the amount you will need to win in order to make $100 profit. Your wagers will total $108 dollars as shown in STEP 7

STEP 7 Take result from STEP 6 ($208) and multiply it by the value of STEP 2 … this will tell you how much to wager on each of the horses ( ABCD)

HORSE A $208 X .11 = $23.00

HORSE B $208 X .25 = $52.00

HORSE C $208 X .11 = $23.00

HORSE D $208 X .05 = $10.00

TOTALS $23+ $52 + $23 + $10 = $108

STEP 8 IF HORSE A WINS $23 X ODDS = $207 ($23 X 9 = 207)

STEP 9 subtract total wagers of $108 from winnings $207 and you get a return/profit of $99. You can do the same for the other HORSES B, C, D and you will see that the return will be in the neighborhood of $100 (if the winning horse goes off at more than the specified odds you will be pleasantly surprised!)

HORSE RACING MONEY MANAGEMENT 2

The following formula will tell you how much of your Bankroll to invest each time based upon the PERCENT WIN (W%) and the AVERAGE PAYOFF (AP). What is nice about this is that the amount will fluctuate depending on your success (win percentage) and the payoff values.

WA = wager amount

((W%) X (AP)) – ((WA) X 100) / ((100 X (AP)) – (WA))

%W = WINS / TOTAL HORSES BET

This will determine the percentage amount of money from your BANKROLL to wager on each of your choices. REMEMBER this value will fluctuate as your WIN PERCENTAGE and AVERAGE PAYOFF may change as a result of each bet/wager made.

EXAMPLE Let’s say you win 40 times out of 100 tries. 40/100 = .40 or 40%

And your AVERAGE PAYOFF (AP) IS $10.00

Your WAGER AMOUNT (WA) is $2.00

So your calculation would look like this

(40 (%W) X $10.00 (AP)) – ($2.00 (WA) X 100) / (100 X ($10.00 (AP) – $2.00(WA)))

So we would end up with $400-$200 / $800 = .25 or 25 % (percent) of your BANKROLL can be wagered on your next selection!

[LongshotWhisperer]

The following discusses the parameters of determining what you need to do in order to earn a certain amount/annual income.  It also references the RULE OF 72.

 

At Bet-Won.com our goal is not only to provide winners to our visitors but to provide you with valuable
information you can use to help you at the racetrack.

The following is our original horse betting money management we published about 5-6 years ago. The basic
principals worked them, and they still work today.

Here it is for you absolutely free of charge, the original bet-won horse betting money management system.

Bet-Won Horse Betting  Money Management System

Have you ever applied for a job and not discuss salary? Imagine this conversation, “Well, shall we discuss
salary Mr.Applicant?” Then say, “Who cares how you much I make, as long as I get paid!”

Seems ridiculous doesn’t it? Then why do most people go to the track or casino with no idea of how much
money they plan on winning?

Most people go with the idea of losing all their money, or hitting “the big one.” But just what is the
big one? And how much would be enough before you pack it in and go home?

How many times have you hit 2-3 even 4 winners at the track and still go home busted? Sadly it happens
to many patrons. The reason? No plan.

With this simple plan outlined in Bet-Won, you could make all the cash you want. Just be realistic. Here
are the basic rules to follow:

Your bankroll must never include money for rent, food, or other necessities. It must be the money you have
available for wagering, be it $100 or $10,000. Don’t mess with it.

Make a long-term profit goal using the Rule of 72 to decide how to double your bankroll and to determine
your annual income from Bet-Won.

Learn to accept small profits over a long time period. DO NOT GO OVER YOUR HEAD!

Don’t’ revise your bankroll unless you hit your target.

This is vital. After you play the number of races you’d planned – GO HOME! If not, you will totally defeat
the purpose of this system. If you must stick around and bet, use your “fun money”. But never mess with your
bankroll.

Reaching Your Goals Effortlessly

It doesn’t matter which system you decide to use, the Bet-Won money management system guarantees your
profits. Get a Wall Streeters control over your money. Tell Lady Luck to get lost; you won’t rely on her
anymore. Using Bet-Won is like having your own money machine. Stop complaining about crooked Jockeys,
trainers who use the “juice”, strange photo finishes and hokey inquiries. Those things won’t affect you.

How to Determine Your Annual Salary

Look at the big picture first. How much money do you want to win at the races this year? And how much time
can you dedicate to it? As an example, let’s say you want to earn $36,000 in cash.

Divide $36,000 by 52 weeks. That’s $692.31 per week. Remember, some weeks you may make more, or less, but
things seem to average out. Then we go further by dividing the number of racing cards your track runs per
week. Let’s say, 6. So that’s $115.38 per visit to the track to make $36,000 per year. But what about
winning streaks and losing streaks? We’re not dead yet. We’ve got that covered.

Let’s say the handicapping system we use (Bet-Won for this example) has a 36% win average. We take the total
number of cards per week (6) and multiply it by the number of races we’ll bet (7) then multiply weeks in
the year (52). That’s 2,184 [the total number of races we’ll bet on]. Then we take 36% of that figure 786
[the number of winners we’ll have in the year]. Divide $36,000 by 786 or $45.80. So that means we need to
profit $46 per winner to be ahead $36,000. This includes all the winning and losing streaks…not bad huh?
But it gets much, much better!

So we’ve eliminated the risks of losing streaks getting us in a tizzy, and causing us to over bet or
overcompensate. Seems pretty easy right?

As a working example, say day 1 you lose $60 with no winners. With a DPM of $41, the next day your DPM must
start at $101 until you have a winner. Then it goes back to $41. This is why we never bet horses under 5/2,
we’d go busted quick. But at 5/2 or higher (using our Wall Street money management technique), your losses
are much less and easily handled by a 95%+ leverage with your bankroll!

You’ve researched the numbers; you KNOW that these numbers repeat with surety. So guess what YOU CAN’T LOSE. In the long run, the number comes in and you cover your losses PLUS show a profit. Plus we’ll show you how to hedge against long losing streaks and yet barely tap into your bankroll. How fantastic is that?

Test Example

You want to make $20,000 this year, and your handicapping system (not Bet-Won) picks 34% winners playing
all 9 races per card. Your track is open 5 days a week.

How much will you need to profit per winning bet to make that $20,000?

Answer: $25.13 profit per winner

If you don’t understand how to get that figure, here’s how.

Number of Races Per Card: 9

Number of Card per Week:  5

Total number of races: 45

Number of weeks in year: 52

Total races per year: 2,340

34% winners: 796

$20,000 / 796: 25.125

How much of a bankroll would you need to start out on $20,000 per annum? Well, that would be whatever $25.13
is 5% of. So multiply 25.13 times 100 and divide by 5.

DPM = 25.13

Times = 100 (percent)

Total = 2513

Divided by 5 (or 5 percent) = $502.60

So you’d need about a $510 bankroll to get started.

How To Place A Wager

Don’t be foolish, they might say. Everyone knows how to make a bet right? Just go to the teller and say,

Unlike the lottery or casino games, horse racing odds are constantly changing due to the amount of money
being put into the pari-mutuel pools at different times. Someone making a huge bet could lower the odds
dramatically. Now let’s say there are 3 horses, 35-1, 5/2 and 6/5 odds. How do you know what the probable
payout of each will be? It’s actually quite easy, multiply the odds times 2, then add 2.

So at 35-1 a $2 wager will get you $72.00 back, or a $70 profit. At 5/2 it’s a little tricky. First divide 5
by 2, and get 2.5 multiply by 2 (5) and add 2 (7). So a 5/2 horse will pay back $7 or $5 profit. OK so 6/5
is 6 divided by 5 (1.2) times 2 (2.4) plus 2 ($4.40).

Now let’s put this knowledge into action. Assume we have established our DPM at $25 per day (or really per
win). Our choice play for the day is the number 5. It’s now post time. We wait until about 5 minutes left to
post before we make our calculations (there’s late money in every race, just look at the lines to place a
bet!). OK 5 minutes to post and our choice is 9/2 odds or 4.5-1. We divide $25 by 4.5, and we get 5.555.
Round it off and we are to wager $6 on the #5 horse to win.

Well, bad luck we lose. So now we take the $6 we just wagered and add it to our DPM until we win. So now our
DPM is $31. This assures we make profit and cover all losses. Remember our system guarantees that we will
eventually win.

Next race, the #5 horse goes to post at 17-1, so we divide $31 by 17 and get 1.82. We wager $2 to win on
the #5 horse. Drat! Another loser. We’re down $8.

Third possible race. The #5 horse goes to post at 4/5 odds. Whoa that’s way below 5-1. In fact it’s less
than even money. Skip the race and get a hot dog.

Fourth possible race. The #5 horse is 9-1. So we divide $33 (25 + 8) by 9. We get 3.666. So we bet $4 to win
on the #5. Heidi ho! A winner. At 9-1 the horse pays $21.80 (can range from $20.00-$21.80). We get back
$43.60. So our total bets so far have been $12. Our profit $31.60, we beat our estimate by 6.60.

You see it really is that easy. As long as we avoid low priced horses. (If you must bet the lower priced
animals, 4-1 would be the absolute lowest odds. Anything lower and your just throwing money away, because
at even money, you need to win 50% of your bets just to get even!)

Handle Your Money With Wall Street Efficiency and Your Success Is Guaranteed!

But here’s the literally cherry on top of the ice cream! You will now learn how to professionally manage
your bankroll like a Wall Streeter manages his futures money. It’s so darn simple but the wild part about
it is IT WORKS!

What I’m talking about it the Rule of 72. This is a time tested technique people have used for years to
project the value of their investments. It tells you how long it will be before any investment you make will
double in value. This gives you absolute POWER over winning and losing streaks because you will be able to
cut your risk to pennies on the dollar – all the while compounding your bankroll up and up and up.

Here’s how you do it. First you decide how long you want it to be until your original bankroll doubles in
value. The longer you allow – the less your risk. So if you are patient your success can be assured, not
hoped for!

In this example I’ll use 3 months – I want my bankroll to double every 3 months. And I’m willing to take all
my winnings and put them back into my bankroll so by compounding I can double my already doubled bankroll
every 3 months. Wow that’s a mouthful!

Ok – I start with a small $500 bankroll. I want it to double every 3 months. So I divide 72 by 3. I get 24.
I need to earn 24% per month of compounded interest to double my $500 in 3 months. Next I figure out what
24% of $500 is. And that’s $120. So I need to make $120 in my first month and add it to my bankroll.

I plan on going to the track 5 days a week for 4 weeks that’s a total of 20 times in the month. So I divide
$120 by 20 and I get $6. I need to earn a measly $6 a day to double my money in 3 months! That’s only 1.2%
per day on my money. In other words I have to use the Bet-Won Progressive wagering technique to profit $6
per day – did you capture the POWER of what I just said?

Let’s put it in real terms – a Bet-Won selection horse goes to post at 4-1 odds. You need to make a $6
profit – your wager? 6 divided by 4 which is 1.5 – you just made a $2 wager, which if hit, will give you
$10 (an $8 profit) more than enough to reach your goal of doubling $500 in 3 months. Are you getting
excited yet? If not – this better get your juices flowing…

After 3 months our $500 bankroll is now about $1000. Taking the $1000 we follow the same steps. Now after
6 months our $500 is $2000. 3 months later our $500 is now $4000. And finally after 1 year our $500 has
ballooned to a massive $8000. And we’ve never needed to earn more than 1.2% of our bankroll to get that
kind of return! It’s mind-blowing.

Like I said, you can make the risk almost nothing by lengthening the time to a bankroll double to 4 months
– 5 months or more. Heck at 5 months playing 20 days per month, you need to earn a tiny THREE QUARTERS OF
ONE PERCENT or $3.50 per day– to turn $500 into $8000! Only it would take you about ONE YEAR AND EIGHT
MONTHS….

Here is an example using multiple horses:

With our updated money management method, you can play 1, 2, 3 even 4 horses (positions) at once and still
double your bankroll. First, here’s a run down with just one horse:

Say you want to double your money every 45 playing days. You have 15 wins per 100 races (15%) that would be
54 wins per 45 days or 360 races x 15%. Then take 72 and divide by 54 = 1.33%. If you have, say $1000
dollars you’d need to compound that per win.

Add the 1.33% back into the bankroll – $1013.30 now take 1.33% of 1013.30, win, multiply 1.33% and add back
in after every win …and keep doing the same. After 54 wins you should have a little over a $2000 bankroll.
(Of course this is just an example the real dollar figures will be according to your particular bankroll
and needs.)

We highly suggest with a win percentage of 15% you only play positions that go off at 5/2 or MORE.

Now suppose you want to include 2 or more selections: This would boost your win percentage and dramatically
cut your losses. Here’s what you do. Bet both numbers but spilt your DPM in 2. For example you have a $50
DPM total. Play each one independently using a $25 DPM for each.

Remember, you always add losses back in. You are treating the split wagers as totally separate, independent
Bankrolls. In other words you have a $500 total BR and a $25 DPM and you want to wager on 2 numbers.

Selection 1 would have a DPM of $250 and $12.50 DPM compounded

Selection 2 would have a DPM of $250 and $12.50 DPM compounded

Each betting unit would be operated separately. Losses are folded back in until a win as normal. But ONLY
losses for each separate number’s bankroll NOT combined selections. This way at the end you have doubled
your win%, and doubled each BR [1 + 2] for a $1,000 total combined BR. You can even do this with 3 or 4
numbers, this way dry spells are lessened. It could be possible that after a month of playing your 4
bankrolls, you end up with uneven amounts such as $710, $190, $630 & $470 for a total of $2000 while each
BR started at $250 each. But that’s fine, as long as you reach your original goal of doubling the bankroll
after 45 days. Here with a HIGHER win percentage; again we suggest you go as low as 5/2 with your plays BUT
NO LOWER!

As far as re-evaluation of the numbers, we state every 30 days. But as I’m sure you’ve noticed each track
is slightly different. Some maintain the same ratings month after month. I’d do some back searching at the
track you are playing and see what pattern emerges that best suits your style. If that track has a new
pattern every 28 days, then so bet it. Change after 28.

Here’s an oversimplified exercise:

If you use traditional progressive wagering without the rule of 72 it would be like this. Let’s assume for
simplicity all horses bet are 4-1. We have 10 races with 3 wins for a 33% win rate and a $1000 bankroll.

Straight Progressive Wager DPM $240:
Divide $240 by 4-1 = $60

Race 1: Bet $60  LOSE  (add loss to $240 or 300)
Divide $300 by 4-1 = $75

Race 2: Bet $75  Lose  (add loss again $375)
Divide $375 by 4-1 = $93.75 or $94

Race 3: Bet $94  LOSE (add loss again $469)
Divide $469 by 4-1 = $117.25 or $117

Race 4: Bet $117  WINNER $10.00  Winnings $585
Bankroll less losses was $654 – NOW $1,239
Divide $240 by 4-1 = $60

Race 5: Bet $60 WINNER $10.00  Winnings $300
Bankroll was 1239 – 60 or $1179 now $1479
Divide $240 by 4-1 = $60

Race 6: Bet $60 WINNER $10.00  Winnings $300
Bankroll was 1479 – 60 or $1419 now $1719
SO AFTER 3 WINS WE HAVE $1,719

OK NOW WE’LL DO THIS WITH THE RULE OF 72. We win 33% and we want to DOUBLE our bankroll after 10 races or 3
wins BUT WE DON’T WANT TO RISK MORE THAN 24% LIKE WE DID ABOVE. So we divide 72 by 3 (the number of winners
we expect to have in 10 races). We get 24, that means we need to profit 24% of our bankroll on EVERY
INDIVIDUAL WIN. So now your DPM is 24% of $1,000 or

$240 COMPOUNDED to double your money after 3 wins.

Here’s how it would work:

RULE OF 72 Wager STILL DPM $240:

Divide $240 by 4-1 = $60

Race 1: Bet $60  LOSE  (add loss to $240 or 300)
Divide $300 by 4-1 = $75

Race 2: Bet $75  Lose  (add loss again $375)
Divide $375 by 4-1 = $93.75 or $94

Race 3: Bet $94  LOSE (add loss again $469)
Divide $469 by 4-1 = $117.25 or $117

Race 4: Bet $117  WINNER $10.00  Winnings $585
Bankroll less losses was $654 – NOW $1,239***

HERE’S THE DIFFERENCE. NOW WE TAKE 24% OF $1,239 WHICH IS $297.36….SO OUR DPM IS NOW $297 AND STILL 24%
OF OUR BANKROLL!

Divide $297 by 4-1 = $74.25 OR $74

Race 5: Bet $74 WINNER $10.00  Winnings $370
Bankroll was 1239 – 74 or $1165 now $1535***

AGAIN WE TAKE 24% OF $1,535 WHICH IS $368.40….SO OUR DPM IS NOW $368 AND STILL 24% OF OUR TOTAL BANKROLL!

Divide $368 by 4-1 = $92

Race 6: Bet $92 WINNER $10.00  Winnings $460
Bankroll was 1535 – 92 or $1443 now $1903

SO AFTER 3 WINS WE HAVE $1,903 – This is only a short-term look. When it’s allowed more time it’s quite
amazing. But we’ve just about doubled a bankroll on 3 wins. Had this been spread over a month, the wagers
would have been MUCH LOWER and the bankroll would have PASSED DOUBLING.

We knew our risk going in that we would win 33% on average. Of course in the short-term this can fluctuate
wildly with winning- and losing streaks, which is why we take a LONG-TERM approach. This way, losing streaks
are overcome by winning streaks and it all adds up in the end, all while keeping risk at an absolute minimum.
This is the same formula bankers use when calculating interest they collect, which is why they make so much
off us

*****Important note: Remember, after you’ve played the number of races you’d planned on playing…..GO HOME!
I can’t repeat this strongly enough. Live to play another day. Look, we’ve put the odds on YOUR side, why
give it back and let the others have your money? If you’re that generous, just hand it out at the front door
to people walking in. Whatever you lose, someone else ends up winning.

REVIEW

Use the Rule of 72 to decide how long before you want to double your bankroll, and put the profits back into your bankroll each time it doubles.

* Wait at least until 5 minutes to post time before placing your bet.
* Divide the odds, at 5 minutes to post or less, into the amount of DPM to determine your bet size.
* Add your losses on each losing race to your DPM until you win. Then, after a win, start again at the
original DPM.
* If you play 2+ positions divide your bankroll and play each bankroll as an individual entity then add it
together at the end as a whole.
* After you play the number of races you’ve allotted for the day – GO HOME. Avoid experimenting.

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