SATURDAY STAKES RACES 12-11-2021

[consensus Choice]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2021 – STAKES RACES

ANALYSIS IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE

 

OAKLAWN PARK

RACE 9 – POINSETTIA STAKES 1 1/16 MILES $150,000

#4 SUPER STOCK 9/5 – IN NOVEMBER THIS ASMUSSEN RUNNER WON THE ZIA PARK DERBY $250K LAST OUT. THAT CAME ON A DROP OUT OF A THIRD PLACE FINISH IN THE G3 OKLAHOMA DERBY IN SEPTEMBER AT REMINGTON PARK.

HE ALSO WON THE $200K ELLIS PARK DERBY 3 BACK IN AUGUST. BUT THE BIGGEST RACE HE WON WAS LAST APRIL RIGHT HERE AT OAKLAWN, THE G1 ARKANSAS DERBY. SEEMS LIKE A STANDOUT.

#3 FLASH OF MISCHIEF 5/2 – WON THE $100K DELTA MILE AT DELTA DOWNS LAST TIME, WHILE DROPPING OUT OF A GREAT FRONT RUNNING SECOND AT BIG ODDS IN THE G3 OKLAHOMA DERBY, FINISHING IN FRONT OF SUPER STOCK.

HE ALSO WON THE $250K ST. LOUIS DERBY AT FAN DUEL AND THE $250K IOWA DERBY AT PRAIRIE MEADOWS. HIS ADVANTAGE IS HE IS A SOLID FRONT RUNNER WHO HAS TO BE CAUGHT.

#2 DEFEATER 3/1 – HAS NO SUCCESSFUL STAKES ON HIS RESUME BUT HE ALSO DROPPED OUT OF A 6TH PLACE FINISH IN THE G3 OKLAHOMA DERBY (OBVIOUSLY A LIVE RACE) AND ROMPED IN A $127K ALLOWANCE RACE AT CHURCHILL DOWNS LAST TIME. HE WILL ALSO ADD FUEL TO THE PACE WHICH MAY WORK TO THE TOP HORSE’S ADVANTAGE.

 

TURFWAY PARK

RACE 5 – MY CHARMER 1 1/16 MILES $100,000

#5 ADVENTURING 2/1 – FROM THE BRAD COX STABLE, FINISHED A FAST CLOSING THIRD THE G3 VALLEY VIEW AT KEENELAND LAST TIME. BEFORE THAT SHE WON THE $500K DUELING GROUNDS OAKS AT KENTUCKY DOWNS ON THE TURF SHOWING MORE EARLY SPEED THAN SHE DOES ON THE DIRT.

THE KEY RACE ON HER RECORD IS HER WIN HERE AT TURFWAY LAST MARCH IN THE     $150K BOURBONETTE. LOOKS LIKE THE GIRL TO BEAT.

#2 SO DARN HOT 4/1 – DROPS OUT OF THE G3 TURN BACK THE ALARM AT AQUEDUCT LAST TIME WHERE SHE FINISHED SECOND AT 1 1/8 MILES. SHE WAS LOSING SOME GROUND LATE, SO THE CUT BACK TO 1 1/16 SHOULD BE PERFECT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HER RACE LAST TIME WAS HER FIRST IN A STAKES AND NO TELLING HOW STRONG THE RACE WAS. WE WILL FIND OUT TODAY. BUT ON IT’S FACE, IT WAS A G3 AND TODAY’S RACE IS A NON-GRADED EVENT, SO A SIGNIFICANT CLASS DROP.

#11 ART OF ALMOST 4/1 – IS A MARK CASSE RUNNER AND THAT IMMEDIATELY CATCHES YOUR ATTENTION AS THE TRAINER DOESN’T SHIP FROM WOODBINE TO TURFWAY FOR THE SCENERY. OFF THE BOARD IN THE G3 MAPLE LEAF LAST TIME AT WOODBINE, SHE WON THE G3 MATRON IN HER PREVIOUS RACE BEATING ANOTHER CASSE RUNNER, SKYGAZE, WHO CAME BACK TO WIN THE AFOREMENTIONED G3 MAPLE LEAF.

NEAR THE BOTTOM OF HER 10 RACE RESUME ARE SECOND PLACE FINISHES IN LAST YEAR’S G3 MAPLE LEAF AND THE $100K BELL MAHONE. YOU MUST RESPECT THE HORSE AND THE TRAINER IF YOU CAN FORGIVE HER LAST.

 

AQUEDUCT PARK

RACE 8 – GARLAND OF ROSES 6 FURLONGS $100,000

#6 SADIE LADY 6/1 – IS THE SPEED OF THE SPEED AND WILL TAKE THESE AS FAR AS SHE CAN. SHE HAS ONLY BEEN BEATEN TO THE LEAD ONCE IN HER LAST 10 RACES, HAS HAD THE LEAD 6 TIMES AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH AND HAS 5 WINS.

HER LAST RACE IN AUGUST SHE FADED TO FOURTH IN A STATE-BRED STAKES BUT SHE HAS BEEN GIVEN 3 MONTHS R&R.  IN HER PRIOR RACE SHE WENT GATE TO WIRE THE DANCING RENEE AT BELMONT A $100K STATE-BRED RACE. HOWEVER, HER KEY RACE WAS HER THIRD BACK, A SECOND PLACE FINISH IN THE OPEN G2 VAGRANCY AT BELMONT. SHE ALSO WIRED THE $100K CORRECTION STAKES AT AQUEDUCT. CAN SHE BREAK FREE EARLY WITH SUPER FRONT RUNNING JOCKEY KENDRICK CARMOUCHE AT A NICE PRICE? FINGERS CROSSED!

#1 CALL ON MISCHIEF 5/1 – STOLE A 75K OVERNIGHT STAKES AT MAHONING VALLEY LAST OUT IN NOVEMBER. FOUR RACES BACK SHE FORCED THE PACE RUNNING SECOND ALL THE WAY AROUND IN THE $100K ALMA NORTH AT PIMLICO. 7 RACES BACK, SHE JUST MISSED BY A HEAD FROM CATCHING A LOOSE ON THE LEAD SADIE LADY IN THE $100K CORRECTION STAKES HERE AT AQUEDUCT.

#2 GLASS CEILING 6/5 – SHE IS THE FAVORITE BECAUSE OF HER SECOND PLACE NEAR MISS BY A HEAD IN THE $100K PUMPKIN PIE AT BELMONT LAST TIME. SHE IS A STALKER WHO WAS FIFTH EARLY BUT ONLY 2 LENGTHS BEHIND THE LEADER. THERE ARE 2 QUESTION MARKS ABOUT HER. THAT RACE WAS HER ONLY STAKES TRY AND IT WAS AT 7 FURLONGS. DOES THE CUT BACK TO 6 FURLONGS FAVOR HER OR THE SPEED? COULD SHE BE VULNERABLE HERE OR GET THE PERFEC SET-UP FOR HER LAST RUN WHICH THE MORNING LINE SEEM TO THINK BY MAKING HER ODDS SO SHORT.

JUST READ IT 20/1 – IS AN INTERESTING LONGSHOT. SHE SAT JUST OFF THE LEADER IN SECOND AND TOOK OVER AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH LAST MARCH IN THE $100K CICADA AT AQUEDUCT. HER COMEBACK RACE IN NOVEMBER AT CHURCHILL DOWNS FOUND HER IN SEVENTH EARLY AND SHE PASSED 4 HORSES TO FINISH THIRD BEATEN 4 LENGTHS IN A $100K OPTIONAL CLAIMER.

SHE COULD ADD FUEL TO THE PACE OR PERHAPS SIT BACK AND BE COMING ALONG WITH GLASS CEILING IN THE STRETCH. EITHER WAY, SHE HAS A BIG CHANCE TO HIT THE BOARD AT A PRICE THAT WILL MAKE YOUR EXOTICS LIGHT UP THE BOARD.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 10 – MR. PROSPECTOR STAKES 7 FURLONGS G3 $100,000

NO OPINION IN A VERY WEAK STAKES FOR THE CLASS LEVEL.

[Author]

Posts