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SARATOGA REVISED ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 7/1602020 – SCRATCHES UPDATED

1ST RACE 

THIS RACE HAS CHANGED RADICALLY. EVERY CONTENDER IS AS THEY SAY IN POLITICS “WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR”. ONLY PLAY NOW IS A SMALL ACROSS THE BOARD BET ON RUCKSACK (12/1) TO SEE IF HE CAN STEAL THIS AT A PRICE.

2ND RACE 

THIS RACE HAS A LACK OF EARLY SPEED SO EXPECT THE CLOSERS TO DOMINATE. #1 LEADING WEST (3/1), #10 SCANNO (7/2), #5 THIS ILL DEFEND (8/1).

3RD RACE 

SPEED WIL SURELY DOMINATE THIS SHORT FIELD. #5 PALOMITA (9/5) AND #3 PALACE AVENGER (2/1) SEEM QUICKEST BUT IF THEY WEAR EACH OTHER OUT ON THE FRONT END, #2 FIGURE OF SPEECH (3/1) IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VERY LITTLE VALUE IN THIS RACE.

4TH RACE 

BIG GUN IN HERE EARLY IS #3 DIAL ME UP (3/1). FIRSTERS #2 YES TO MISCHIEF (9/2) ,#4 PALACE DUCHESS (6/1) AND EVEN LONGSHOT #1 ESCAPE FUND (10/1) WILL HAVE TO HAVE THEIR RUNNING SHOES ON TO OUTRUN HER EARLY AND CATCH HER LATE IF SHE OPEN A BIG ENOUGH LEAD.

5TH RACE 

LOTS OF JET FUEL ON DISPLAY HERE, #5 DARK MONEY (5/2), #6 LEAKY CUP (6/1) AND #2 STEAM ENGINE (8/1) ALL HAVE BIG TIME EARLY GAS. BIG CLOSER IS #8 THE CARETAKER (3/1). MAY BENEFIT IF ONE OF THE TOP 3 DON’T SEPARATE AND OPEN UP AN UNSURMOUNTABLE LEAD AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH.

6TH RACE 

SPEED DUEL BETWEEN #9 PROPENSITY (2/1) AND #8 SPITBALL (4/1). LONGSHOT SPEEDER #5 POINT OF HONOR (15/1) HAS THE SPEED TO CONTEND IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A FLYER. WHILE CLOSERS ARE AT A BIG DISADVANTAGE IN THESE SHORT TURF SPRINTS, #7 SIR CHUBBY (6/1) AND #3 TIZ ENVY (15/1) ARE THE HOPES FROM BEHIND.  PREFER SPEED IN THESE SHORT TURF SPRINTS.

7TH RACE 

#1 ASTORIA (2/1) SHOULD BE TOUGH TO CATCH FROM THE RAIL WITH IRAD ORTIZ RIDING. EXPECTING A SHORT PRICE. ONLY #8 PANDAMOM (5/1) SEEMS TO HAVE ENOUGH EARLY SPEED TO BE CLOSE TO THE TOP HORSE EARLY. #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA (3/1) IS A TOP NOTCH CLOSER WHILE THE REST ARE PRETTY SLOW LATE.

8TH RACE – SCHUYLERVILLE (G3) $100,000

THE TOP TWO HORSES IN THE MORNING LINE ARE ALSO THE FASTEST EARLY #3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES (6/5) AND #8 HOPEFUL PRINCESS (2/1). THIS RACE IS DEVOID OF CLOSERS, SO IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR AN UPSETTER OR HORSES TO FILL OUT YOUR EXOTIC TICKET, #2 HARA (10/1), #4 QUINOA TIFAH (15/1), #7 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (15/1) ALL HAVE PLENTY OF EARLY GAS, JUST NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE TOP 2.

 RACE – PETER PAN  (G3) $100,000

THE BEST EARLY SPEED CONTENDER IS #7 CARACARO (6/1). THE ONLY OTHER BIG EARLY SPEED IS #4 CELTIC STRIKER (12/1). CLOSERS ARE LED BY #2 COUNTRY GRAMMAR (7/2), #5 CANDY TYCOON (5/1) AND #10 CHESTERTOWN (10/1). WIDE OPEN RACE.

10TH RACE 

LONE TOP EARLY SPEED BELONGS TO #2 DOLL (7/2). THE OTHER PACE HORSES #4, #11, AND #10 ARE 15/1 OR HIGHER IN THE MORNING LINE. THE BIG CLOSER IS #1 SECURE CONNECTION (5/2).  SHE COULD BE LAST EARLY IN A BIG FIELD FROM THE RAIL.  NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR DEEP CLOSERS TO WIN EVEN AT THESE SHORT DISTANCES, BUT WITH THE SCRATCH OF MAIN PACE RIVAL, SUMMER FORTUNE, IT IS #2 DOLL’S RACE TOO LOSE.

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