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SARATOGA OPENING DAY ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 7/16/2020

1ST RACE 

TOP SPEED AMONGST THE FAVORITES IS #1 CASTLE CASANOVA (7/2). FASTEST IN THE RACE ON PAPER IS #8 RUCKSACK (12/1). THE MORNING FAVORITE #6 GUY CABALLERO (2/1) CAN’T BE COUNTED OUT IF TOP 2 FAIL TO STICK IT OUT,  BUT HE WILL BE LIKELY FARTHER BACK EARLY AND WILL HAVE TO RATE TO WIN IT.

2ND RACE 

THIS RACE HAS A LACK OF EARLY SPEED SO EXPECT THE CLOSERS TO DOMINATE. #1 LEADING WEST (3/1), #10 SCANNO (7/2), #5 THIS ILL DEFEND (8/1) AND EVEN #2 ZUZUDINI (10/1).

3RD RACE 

SPEED WIL SURELY DOMINATE THIS SHORT FIELD. #5 PALOMITA (9/5) AND PALACE AVENGER (2/1) SEEM QUICKEST BUT IF THEY WEAR EACH OTHER OUT OF THE FRONT END, #2 FIGURE OF SPEECH (3/1) IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VERY LITTLE VALUE IN THIS RACE.

4TH RACE 

BIG GUN IN HERE EARLY IS #3 DIAL ME UP (3/1). FIRSTERS #2 YES TO MISCHIEF (9/2) ,#4 PALACE DUCHESS (6/1) AND EVEN LONGSHOT #1 ESCAPE FUND (10/1) WILL HAVE TO HAVE THEIR RUNNING SHOES ON TO OUTRUN HER EARLY.

5TH RACE 

LO TS OF EARLY GAS ON DISPLAY HERE, #5 DARK MONEY (5/2), #6 LEAKY CUP (6/1) AND #2 STEAM ENGINE (8/1) ALL HAVE BIG TIME EARLY LICK. BIG CLOSER IS #8 THE CARETAKER (3/1). MAY BENEFIT IF ONE OF THE TOP 3 DON’T SEPARATE AND OPEN UP AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH.

6TH RACE 

ANOTHER SPEED DUEL WHICH USUALLY IS A POSITIVE IN THIS SHORT TURF SPRINTS. #9 PROPENSITY (2/1), #14 BREES BAYOU (7/2) AND #8 SPITBALL (4/1) WILL THROW IT DOWN EARLY. LONGSHOT SPEEDER #5 POINT OF HONOR (15/1) HAS THE SPEED TO CONTEND IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A FLYER.

7TH RACE 

#1 ASTORIA (2/1) SHOULD BE TOUGH TO CATCH FROM THE RAIL WITH IRAD RIDING. EXPECTING A SHORT PRICE. ONLY #8 PANDAMOM (5/1) SEEMS TO HAVE ENOUGH EARLY SPEED TO BE CLOSE TO THE TOP HORSE EARLY. #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA (3/1) IS A TOP NOTCH CLOSER WHILE THE REST ARE PRETTY SLOW LATE.

8TH RACE – SCHUYLERVILLE (G3) $100,000

THE TOP TWO HORSES IN THE MORNING LINE ARE ALSO THE FASTEST EARLY #3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES (6/5) AND #8 HOPEFUL PRINCESS (2/1). THIS RACE IS DEVOID OF CLOSERS, SO IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR AN UPSETTER OR JUST HORSES TO FILL OUT YOUR EXOTIC TICKET, #2 HARA (10/1), #4 QUINOA TIFAH (15/1) AND #7 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (15/1) ALL HAVE PLENTY OF EARLY GAS.

9TH RACE – PETER PAN  (G3) $100,000

STRANGE RACE. THE SPEED BRIGADE ARE ALL LONGSHOTS WHICH MAKES YOU THINK THE CLOSERS WILL HAVE THE EDGE, WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST YEAR WHEN SIR WINSTON FROM LAST PLACE EARLY BEFORE UPSETTING THE BELMONT FIELD. CLOSERS ARE LED BY #2 COUNTRY GRAMMAR (7/2), #5 CANDY TYCOON (5/1) AND #10 CHESTERTOWN (10/1). THE 2 BEST SPEEDSTERS ARE  #7 CARACARO (6/1) AND #4 CELTIC STRIKER (12/1).  RACE LOOKS WIDE OPEN.

10TH RACE 

TOP EARLY SPEED BELONGS TO #2 DOLL (7/2) AND #8 SUMMER FORTUNE (4/1). THE OTHER PACE HORSES ARE 15/1, 15/1 AND 20/1. THE LIKELY WINNER IF SHE RUNS HER RACE IS #1 SECURE CONNECTION (5/2).  BIG TIME CLOSER COULD BE LAST EARLY IN A BIG FIELD AND THIS IS A SHORT TURF SPRINT SO THAT MAY BE A RISKY BET AT A SHORT PRICE. MY MONEY WILL BE ON THE SPEED BECAUSE OF THE SHORT 5 1/2 FURLONG DISTANCE BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR DEEP CLOSERS TO WIN EVEN AT THESE SHORT DISTANCES. YOUR CALL.

 

 

 

 

 

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