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SARATOGA ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 7/22/2020

1ST RACE – HURDLES

2ND RACE

TWO ENTRANTS HAVE OUTSTANDING EARLY SPEED, #4 BRAZEN (6/1) AND #7 BERNIN’ THRU GOLD (7/2). THE SECOND TIER OF SPEED FEATURES STALKERS #6 PASSCODE (12/1) AND #5 STAR OF THE WEST (4/1). THE BEST CLOSER, IN A RACE LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY SPEED, IS #3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES (2/1). ML THINKS HE CAN RUN ‘EM ALL DOWN.

3RD RACE – LUBASH STAKES  $85,000

SIX HORSE FIELD AND FIVE OF THEM WITH OUTSTANING NUMBERS. THATS WHAT STAKES RACES ARE USUALLY ALL ABOUT. EARLY SPEED SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY #6 BLEWITT (2/1), #2 YANKEE DIVISION (4/1) AND #1 CROSS BORDER (1/2). STRONG CLOSERS #5 RAPT (12/1) AND #4 DANTE’S FIRE (8/1) WILL BE FLYING LATE BUT THE ML IS FAVORING THOSE WITH EARLY LICK. TURF ROUTES USUALLY FAVOR CLOSERS. MIXED MESSAGES.

4TH RACE 

DOMINANT EARLY SPEED FROM #4 BREES BAYOU (8/1) AND #5 MACHO JACK (3/1). TOP CLOSERS #7 TENDERFOOT (4/1) AND #2 BREITHORN (5/2). PREFER THE SPEED IN DIRT SPRINTS AND THE TOP 2 ARE STRONG SPEED TYPES.

5TH RACE 

THESE SHORT TURF SPRINTS ARE USUALLY DOMINATED BY EARLY SPEED TYPES AND 7 ENTRANTS IN HERE THAT FIGURE TO FIGHT IT OUT ON THE FRONT END LED BY#5 RIKEN (2/1), #2 CRACK SHOT (4/1) AND LONGSHOT #7 WILD WILLIAM (15/1). FIELD IS DEFICIENT WHEN IT COMES TO CLOSERS. THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS A THREAT FROM BEHND IS THE STRONG MORNING LINE FAVORITE #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE (6/5). NUMBER OF FRONT RUNNERS MAY MEAN A VERY FAST PACE WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRONG CLOSER BUT HE WILL LIKELY BE TRAILING THE FIELD AT THE START. NO MARGIN FOR ERROR.

6TH RACE 

INTERESTING EARLY BATTLE BETWEEN TWO DOMINATE RUNNERS: LONGSHOT #2 BRONX BOMBER (15/1) AND ML FAVORITE #3 EYE LUV LULU (5/2). FOUR STRONG CLOSERS #6 DURKIN’S CALL (9/2), #5 PLAYFUNNYMUSIC (10/1), #7 JUST RIGHT (9/2) AND #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE (6/1). SEEMS LIKE A RACE WITH A PACE THAT COULD FALL APART AND A CALVARY CHARGE OF LATE RUNNERS THROUGH THE STRETCH.

7TH RACE

RACE SEEMS TO BE SHORT ON STRONG SPEED MEANING A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE PACE. #4 TWO CENT TOOTSIE (6/1) SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO LEAD WITH #1 MADISON PARC (7/2) AND #12 CRESCENT LADY (8/1) IN CLOSE PURSUIT. THERE ARE TWO STRONG CLOSERS IN #6 GAELIC GOLD (5/1) AND #10 SAINTE MERE EGLISE (9/2). THESE TURF ROUTES SEEM TO FAVOR LATE RUNNERS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE SPEED ISN’T REAL QUICK.

8TH RACE 

NO DOUBT ABOUT WHO SHOULD BE DOMINATING THE PACE EARLY #7 FOOLISH GHOST (5/1) AND #3 COLONEL LIAM (6/1). #5 GAUGUIN (4/1) SEEMS TO FIT THE PROFILE OF THOSE MOST LIKELY TO SUCEED TURF ROUTING.

9TH RACE

WILL BE A SURPRISE IF #7 ELOQUENT SPEAKER (3/1) DOESN’T MAKE THE LEAD HERE BUT WILL BE STRONGLY CHALLENGED BY LONGSHOT #1 COURAGEOUS GIRL (10/1). CLOSERS IN HERE ARE NOT THAT STRONG #8 SINGULAR SENSATION (3/1) AND #4 LEM ME HAVE IT (8/1). DIRT ROUTES SHOULD FAVOR THE EARLY RUNNERS.

10TH RACE 

THE FINAL RACE IS FILLED WITH A FULL FIELD OF SLOW MAIDEN CLAIMERS. TWO SIGNIFICNT EARLY RUNNERS, ML FAVORITE #5 CENTRAL PERK (4/1) AND LONGSHOT #10 HAPPY HILL LIL (12/1). MOST LIKELY CLOSERS ARE #1 FLATTERING EYES (8/1) AND #2 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY (5/1). THIS GROUP DOMINATES THIS FIELD AND ONE WOULD THINK MEDIOCRE SPEED WILL PERFORM BETTER THAN MEDIOCRE CLOSERS. COULD PROBABLY HIT A NICE EXOTIC PAYOFF BY FOCUSING ON THESE 4 HORSES WHO SEEM TO TOWER OVER THE REST OF A WEAK FIELD.

 

 

 

 

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