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SARATOGA ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 7/22/2020 – SCRATCHES UPDATED

1ST RACE – HURDLES

2ND RACE

TWO ENTRANTS HAVE OUTSTANDING EARLY SPEED, #4 BRAZEN (6/1) AND #7 BERNIN’ THRU GOLD (7/2). THE SECOND TIER OF SPEED FEATURES STALKERS #6 PASSCODE (12/1) AND #5 STAR OF THE WEST (4/1). THE BEST CLOSER, IN A RACE LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY SPEED, IS #3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES (2/1). ML THINKS HE CAN RUN ‘EM ALL DOWN.

3RD RACE – LUBASH STAKES  $85,000

FOUR HORSE FIELD, NOT A RACE WITH MUCH VALUE. GOOD TIME TO HAVE LUNCH. EARLY SPEED SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY #6 BLEWITT (2/1) AND #1 CROSS BORDER (1/2). STRONG CLOSERS #5 RAPT (12/1) WILL BE FLYING LATE BUT WILL BE A DIFFICULT TASK WITH LESS EARLY PACE PRESSURE.

4TH RACE 

DOMINANT EARLY SPEED FROM #4 BREES BAYOU (8/1) WHICH HE SHOULD HAVE ALL TO HIMSELF WITH THE SCRATCH OF PRIMARY PACE RIVAL #5 MACHO JACK. TOP CLOSERS #7 TENDERFOOT (4/1) AND #2 BREITHORN (5/2). PREFER THE LONE SPEED IN THIS DIRT SPRINT BUT THE TOP 2 CLOSERS SHOULD FILL THE EXOTICS UNDERNEATH AND ARE PRIMARY WIN AND EXACTA BETS IF THE SPEED FALTERS.

5TH RACE 

THESE SHORT TURF SPRINTS ARE USUALLY DOMINATED BY EARLY SPEED TYPES AND 5 ENTRANTS FIGURE TO FIGHT IT OUT ON THE FRONT END LED BY #2 CRACK SHOT (4/1) AND LONGSHOT #7 WILD WILLIAM (15/1). FIELD LACKS CLOSERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE (6/5). NUMBER OF FRONT RUNNERS MAY MEAN A VERY FAST PACE WHICH WOULD FAVOR A CLOSER BUT HE WILL LIKELY BE TRAILING THE FIELD AT THE START. NO MARGIN FOR ERROR.

6TH RACE 

INTERESTING PACE SITUATION WITH  LONGSHOT #2 BRONX BOMBER (15/1) HAVING A LONELY LEAD WITH THE SCRATCH OF PRIMARY PACE RIVAL #3 EYE LUV LULU. THERE ARE TWO OTHERS WITH SOME EARLY LICK #8 SUMMER BOURBON (4/1) AND #7 JUST RIGHT (9/2) IF THE LONGSHOT FRONT RUNNER CAN’T SUSTAIN HIS ADVANTAGE IN THE STRETCH. FOUR STRONG CLOSERS #6 DURKIN’S CALL (9/2), #5 PLAYFUNNYMUSIC (10/1), #7 JUST RIGHT (9/2) AND #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE (6/1). SEEMS LIKE A RACE THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY. TOUGH CALL. SHOULD BE FUN TO WATCH BUT FRIGHTENING IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR.

7TH RACE

RACE SEEMS TO BE SHORT ON STRONG SPEED MEANING A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE PACE. #4 TWO CENT TOOTSIE (6/1) SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO LEAD WITH #1 MADISON PARC (7/2) AND #12 CRESCENT LADY (8/1) IN CLOSE PURSUIT. THERE ARE TWO STRONG CLOSERS IN #6 GAELIC GOLD (5/1) AND #10 SAINTE MERE EGLISE (9/2). THESE TURF ROUTES SEEM TO FAVOR LATE RUNNERS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE SPEED ISN’T REAL QUICK.

8TH RACE 

NO DOUBT ABOUT WHO SHOULD BE DOMINATING THE PACE EARLY #7 FOOLISH GHOST (5/1) AND #3 COLONEL LIAM (6/1). #5 GAUGUIN (4/1) SEEMS TO FIT THE PROFILE OF THOSE MOST LIKELY TO SUCEED TURF ROUTING.

9TH RACE

WILL BE A SURPRISE IF #7 ELOQUENT SPEAKER (3/1) DOESN’T MAKE THE LEAD HERE BUT WILL BE STRONGLY CHALLENGED BY LONGSHOT #1 COURAGEOUS GIRL (10/1). CLOSERS IN HERE ARE NOT THAT STRONG #8 SINGULAR SENSATION (3/1) AND #4 LEM ME HAVE IT (8/1). DIRT ROUTES SHOULD FAVOR THE EARLY RUNNERS.

10TH RACE 

THE FINAL RACE IS FILLED WITH A FULL FIELD OF SLOW MAIDEN CLAIMERS. TWO SIGNIFICNT EARLY RUNNERS, ML FAVORITE #5 CENTRAL PERK (4/1) AND LONGSHOT #10 HAPPY HILL LIL (12/1). MOST LIKELY CLOSERS ARE #1 FLATTERING EYES (8/1) AND #2 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY (5/1). THIS GROUP DOMINATES THIS FIELD AND ONE WOULD THINK MEDIOCRE SPEED WILL PERFORM BETTER THAN MEDIOCRE CLOSERS. COULD PROBABLY HIT A NICE EXOTIC PAYOFF BY FOCUSING ON THESE 4 HORSES WHO SEEM TO TOWER OVER THE REST OF A WEAK FIELD.

 

 

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