[consensus Choice]

SARATOGA ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 8/15/2020

RACE 1

6 ½ FURLONGS CLAIMING 14K

TOP EARLY SPEED CONTENDERS ARE INVEST AND BEBE BANKER.

LONGSHOT STRONG ONE 15/1 CAN JOIN THEM IN THE PACE DUEL OFF HIS BEST.

IN A RACE FAIRLY DEVOID OF STRONG CLOSERS, SOMEBODY COULD BENEFIT AT THIS DISTANCE.

RACE 2

1 1/16 MILES (TURF) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS

TOP SPEEDER IS MO MISCHIEF, BUT HE IS AN (MTO) AND MAY NOT RUN. ONLY OTHER KEEN EARLY SPEED BELONGS TO REPO ROCKS, ALSO AN (MTO).

THERE ARE A PAIR OF MODERATE CLOSERS SCHEDULED TO PARTICIPATE, ROCK SUGAR AND RIP IT

THE BULK OF THE FIELD ARE FIRST TIMERS, 7 OF THEM, 3 OF THEM LISTED IN THE ML AS CONTENDERS. IF THE MTO’S DON’T RUN IT MAY BE UP TO THE FIRST TIMERS TO SHOW THE WAY EARLY,

RACE 3

6 FURLONGS CLAIMING 32K

7 ENTRANTS AND LOTS OF SPEED ON DISPLAY.

FASTEST IS CHATEAU, THE ML FAVORITE AND LIKELY LEADER. ALSO POSSESSING SHARP EARLY SPEED ARE SKYLER’S SCRAMJET AND REED KAN. EVEN MAD MUNNY’S WILL BE AN EARLY PACE FACTOR.

ONLY CLOSER OF NOTE IS LUSITANO

RACE 4

6 FURLONGS MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS

QUICK RETURN AND PAPA LUKE FIGURE TO DUKE IT OUT ON THE FRONT END. LONGSHOT SARATOGA PAL 12/1 HAS CONTENDING SPEED OFF HIS BEST.

THERE ARE NO CLOSERS.

THERE IS 1 FIRST TIMER ECCOCI QUA 6/1 WITH IRAD ORTIZ TO CONSIDER.

 RACE 5

7 FURLONGS CLAIMING 16K

LOTS OF SPRINTS TO CONSIDER EARLY ON THE SATURDAY CARD

THE TOP 2 BY FAR EARLY ARE THE TOP 2 MORNING LINE FAVORITES, BRAZEN AND FEVOLA.

ONLY MODERATE CLOSERS IN BEACH FRONT AND NO LIME. LONGSHOT MANDATORY PAYOUT 10/1 IS THE TRUE CLOSER AND HE IS FASTER OFF HIS BEST.

THIS IS A FAIR DISTANCE FOR BOTH STYLES OF RUNNERS BUT THE EARLY SPEED APPEAR MUCH STRONGER IN HERE.

RACE 6

6 1/2 FURLONGS MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS

TOP SPEED CONTENDER IS SWILL.WITH RESTORED ORDER ON THE EARLY CHASE.

NO CLOSERS IN SIGHT.

7 FIRST TIME STARTERS 4 OF THEM CONSIDERED CONTENDERS INCLUDING THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE ENGRAVE.

RACE 7

1 MILE (TURF) ALLOWANCE

2 BIG TIME EARLY LEADERS IN DANFUSI AND BIG THICKET (MTO). IF THE MTO DOESN’T RUN, DANFUSI COULD FIND HIMSELF ON A VERY LONELY LEAD WITHOUT MUCH EARLY PRESSURE, THE PACE PRESSERS BEACH ACCESS (MTO) AND MO READY WON’T BE FAR BEHIND. LONGSHOTS STEERSFANFOR LIFE 12/1 AND ALBIE 10/1 ARE LIKELY TO CONTEST THE EARLY LEAD AND COULD BE PLAYERS IF THE MTO’S DON’T RUN.

TOP CLOSER IS JACK THE CAT. SIMPLY, SANCTUARY CITY AND JIMMY JAZZ WILL ALL BE RUNNING LATE AND ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TALENT.

RACE 8 – SARATOGA DERBY INVITATIONAL STAKES $500,000

1 3/16 MILES (TURF)

TOP SPEED IS COLONEL LIAM. THERE ARE NO CONTENDERS TO CHALLENGE HIM. LONGSHOT GET SMOKIN 15/1 MAY BE HIS ONLY CHALLENGER EARLY.

BIG TIME CLOSERS SIGNED ON, DOMESTIC SPENDING AND GUFO WILL BE FLYING LATE AND LONGSHOT BAMA BREEZE 15/1 DOES HIS BEST RUNNING LATE AS WELL.

IF COLONEL LIAM DOESN’T STEAL IT, THE TOP CLOSERS LOOK WELL POSITIONED TO END UP IN THE WINNERS CIRCLE.

RACE 9 – ALABAMA (G1) $500,000

1 1/4 MILES

SWISS SKYDIVER AND CRYSTAL BALL WILL BE PUTTING ON A SHOW EARLY. SPICE IS NICE AND ENVOUTANTE WILL BE CHASING BUT AREN’T NEARLY AS FAST AS THE TOP 2 ON PAPER.

MAIN CLOSING THREAT IS BONNY SOUTH.

RACE 10

 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) OPTIONAL 40K

THESE SHORT TURF EVENTS FAVOR SPEED HORSES EXCEPT WHEN THERE ARE A SLEW OF THEM.

FOUR CONTENDING HORSES SHOULD BE BATTLING FOR THE EARLY LEAD, CALL ME HARRY, SHIRAZ, BUSTIN SHOUT AND NEW YORK’S FINEST. THEY ALL HAVE SIMILAR SPEED SO THE LEAD PROBABLY GOES TO THE INSIDE PAIR.

STRONG CLOSER MAXWELL ESQUIRE, DRAWN ON THE RAIL COULD PICK THEM ALL UP AS THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE AND THE PATIENT JOEL ROSARIO RIDING. LONGSHOT QIAN BC 15/1 IS ALSO ALL BUSINESS IN THE LANE.

RACE 11

1 MILE (TURF) MAIDEN CLAIMING 40K

EARLY PACE SHOULD FEATURE STRONG SPEEDSTERS HIGH NOTE AND MOMMIE’S JEWEL. THE ML CHOICE, BRICCO, ISN’T AS QUICK AS THE TOP 2 BUT COULD BE SITTING AND WAITING IN THE GARDEN SPOT FROM HIS FAVORABLE INSIDE DRAW.

ONLY MODERATE CLOSING SPEED IN MICHAEL’S BAD BOY AND LONGSHOTS GOLCONDA 10/1 AND SIDD FINCH 12/1.

THREE FIRST TIME STARTERS BUT 2 ARE MTO’S AND THE OTHER AN ALSO ELIGIBLE.

SPEED SHOULD DOMINATE THIS FINAL RACE.

 

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