SANTA ANITA OPENING DAY STAKES RACE ANALYSIS FOR 12-26-2021

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2021

SANTA ANITA PARK STAKES

ANALYSIS IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE

 

RACE 5 – SAN GABRIEL G2 $200,000 1 1/8 MILES TURF

#4 HIT THE ROAD 8/5 – IS A G1 WINNER IN THE KILROE MILE AT SANTA ANITA LAST MARCH. HE WON THE G3 THUNDER ROAD WITH AUTHORITY LAST FEBRUARY HERE. HIS LAST 2 OFF A 5 MONTH LAYOFF WERE CLOSE THIRDS IN THE G2 CITY OF HOPE LAST TIME AND THE G2 DEL MAR MILE. HE HAS WON 5 OF HIS LAST 10 WITH A TURF RECORD OF 11-6-0-2. HE IS A STALKER WHICH SHOULD PLAY WELL HERE AND IS THE MOST ACCOMPLISHED OF THIS FIELD.

#3 BOB AND JACKIE 8/1 – HAS SPEED WHICH HE HAS USED WELL TO SET OR FORCE THE PACE IN G2 AND G3 SANTA ANITA TURF ROUTES. SECOND BEHIND THE TOP HORSE IN THE G3 THUNDER ROAD IN FEBRUARY AND HELD ON FOR SECOND IN LAST YEAR’S SAN GABRIEL. WHILE HE IS USUALLY A FACTOR, HE DOESN’T WIN.

#2 FRIARS ROAD 5/2 – HAS COME RUNNING LATE TO FINISH THIRD IN BOTH THE G2 HOLLYWOOD TURF CUP AND THE G2 JOHN HENRY IN THE LAST 2 MONTHS. HE HAS BEEN WELL BET AND WELL TOUTED BUT DOESN’T SEEM TO HAVE THE RIGHT RUNNING STYLE TO CLOSE THE DEAL AND ISA SHORT PRICE AND MUST CLOSE TODAY AT A SHORTER DISTANCE.

#1 INDIAN PEAK 8/1 – CLOSED STRONGLY TO JUST FINISH THIRD BY LESS THAN A LENGTH IN THE GRADE 2 SEABISCUIT LAST MONTH AT DEL MAR AS A 28/1 LONGSHOT. ANOTHER WHO WILL NEED PACE HELP UP FRONT BUT THE EXTRA 1/16TH OF A MILE HELPS HIM. MAYBE HE IS “PEAKING” AT THE RIGHT TIME.

 

RACE 6 – SAN ANTONIO G2 $200,000 1 1/8 MILES

#4 HOT ROD CHARLIE 6/5 – IS THE ONE TO BEAT AND SEEMS TO HAVE THESE AT HIS MERCY. FOURTH IN THE BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC BEHIND THE VERY QUICK MULTIPLE STAKES WINNER KNICKS GO, KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER MEDINA SPIRT, AND BELMONT WINNER ESSENTIAL QUALITY. DON’T SEE THEM IN HERE. WON THE G1 PARX DERBY IN HIS PREVIOUS AND WON THE G1 HASKELL THIRD RACE BACK BUT WAS DQ’D. FINISHED SECOND IN THE BELMONT STAKES AND WAS A CLOSE THIRD IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. ANY QUESTIONS?

#2 EXPRESS TRAIN 7/2 – WAS THIRD BY 7 BEHIND MEDINA SPIRIT IN THE G1 AWESOME AGAIN LAST TIME IN OCTOBER. WINNER OF THE G2 SAN DIEGO HANDICAP IN JULY AND THE G2 SAN PASCUAL LAST JANUARY. THE RACE THAT REALLY STICKS OUT IS HIS NEAR MISS IN THE SANTA ANITA HANDICAP. THIS GUY IS THE ONLY SERIOUS THREAT TO HOT ROD CHARLIE.

#6 KISS TODAY GOODBYE 5/1 – WON THE SAN ANTONIO EXACTLY ONE YEAR AGO TODAY. THROWN TO THE WOLVES AFTER THAT WITH NO SUCCESS. HE DID FINSH SECOND IN THE G3 NATIVE DIVER LAST OUT BEATEN BY AZUL COAST AND FINISHING IN FRONT OF EIGHT RINGS.

#5 EIGHT RINGS 4/1 – WILL TAKE MONEY BEING FROM THE BAFFERT BARN. WON THE G1 AMERICAN PHAROAH IN 2019 BUT HAS BEEN A DISAPPOINTMENT SINCE.

 

RACE 7 – MATHIS MILE G2 $200,000 1 MILE TURF

#8 BEYOND BRILLANT 5/2 – JUST TOOK THEM GATE TO WIRE AT 1 1/8 MILES ON TURF IN THE G1 HOLLYWOOD DERBY AT 10/1. LIKE THE FACT THAT HE NOT ONLY DROPS INTO A G2 BUT GOES A SHORTER DISTANCE AFTER LOSING A LITTLE GROUND IN THE STRETCH IN HIS WIN.

#7 DU JOUR 3/1 – WON THE G2 AMERICAN TURF AT CHURCHILL DOWNS ON DERBY DAY AND FINISHED A NON-THREATENING THIRD IN THE G1 SARATOGA DERBY INVITATIONAL. ALSO TRAINED BY BOB BAFFERT.

#1 NONE ABOVE THE LAW 6/1 – WON THE G2 DEL MAR DERBY FROM JUST OFF THE PACE AT 10/1 IN SEPTEMBER. HIS LAST 2 RACES WERE DULL BUT HE HAS WON 5 OF HIS LAST 10 AND HAS THREE WINS AT A MILE ON THE TURF. HE ALSO SHOWS TWO SPRINT TO ROUTE WINS.

#6 FLASHIEST 6/1 – WAS ONLY BEATEN BY LESS THAN A LENGTH IN THE DEL MAR DERBY BEHIND NONE ABOVE THE LAW. HE ALSO HASN’T LOOKED SHARP IN HIS LAST PAIR.

 

RACE 8 – LA BREA G1 $300,000 7 FURLONGS

#4 PRIVATE MISSION 8/5 – BOB BAFFERT TRAINEE WAS DONE EARLY AFTER SETTING A FAST PACE IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF. HER PREVIOUS WAS AN EASY WIN IN THE G2 ZENYATTA AT 1 1/16 HERE AND BEFORE THAT WAS AN EVEN EASIER WINNER BY 6 OPEN LENGTHS IN THE G3 TORREY PINES AT DEL MAR. WHILE THOSE WERE ROUTES, SHE SHOWS 2 NON-STAKES SPRINT WINS PRIOR TO TRYING ROUTES. OVERALL. SHE HAS WON 4 OF HER 6 STARTS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THE CUTBACK TO 7 FURLONGS.

#3 KALYPSO 5/1 – IS ALSO FROM THE BAFFERT BARN AND HASN’T RACED SINCE APRIL AFTER BLEEDING AND FINISHED DEAD LAST IN THE G2 8 BELLES AT CHURCHILL DOWNS.ON THE KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD. PRIOR TO THAT SHE HAD 4 CONSECUTIVE GRADED STAKES PLACINGS INCLUDING A SECOND IN THE G1 STARLET AT 1 1/16 AND IN THE MONEY FINISHES IN THE G3 LAS VIRGINES AND G3 SANTA YSABEL HERE AT SANTA ANITA. SHE ALSO WON AT TODAY’S 7 FURLONG DISTANCE IN THE SANTA YNEZ LAST JANUARY. THERE IS A LOT TO LIKE IF YOU CAN FORGIVE THE 8 MONTH LAYOFF. BAFFERT IS 29% WITH HORSES AWAY 90 DAYS +.

#6 BRILLANT CUT 12/1 – SETTLED FOR THIRD AFTER SETTING THE EARLY PACE IN THE SANTA YNEZ BEHIND KALYPSO LAST JANUARY AND WON A 50K OPTIONAL CLAIMER IN OCTOBER TO INDICATE HER FITNESS BUT SHE IS NOT AS ACCOMPLISHED AS THE 2 BAFFERT RUNNERS.

 

RACE 10 –   MALIBU G1 $300,000 7 FURLONGS

#4 DR. SCHIVEL 5/2 – IS FAR AND AWAY THE CLASS OF THE RACE COMING OFF A NOSE LOSS IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT. HE RAN A PICTURE-PERFECT STALK AND POUNCE RACE AND RAN TOO GOOD TO LOSE. THAT RACE CAME AFTER HIS BACK-TO-BACK IMPRESSIVE SCORES IN THE G2 SANTA ANITA SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP AND THE G1 BING CROSBY AT DEL MAR. HE IS ALSO PROVEN AT 7 FURLONGS OFF HIS 2-YEAR-OLD IMPRESSIVE WIN IN THE G1 DEL MAR FURURITY IN SEPTEMBER 2020.

#3 STILLETO BOY 12/1 – WAS OVERMATCHED IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC LAST OUT BUT WAS SECOND ONE RACE BACK IN THE G1 AWESOME AGAIN BEHIND DERBY CHAMP MEDINA SPIRIT. HE HAS NEVER WON SPRINTING WHICH MAKES HIM QUESTIONABLE ON THE CUT BACK, BUT ON CLASS ALONE HE MIGHT MAKE HIS PRESENCE FELT.

#1 BABY YODA 6/1 – WAS A FADING THIRD IN THE G2 VOSBURGH AT BELMONT IN OCTOBER BEHIND FOLLOWING SEA WHO FINISHED THIRD BEHIND DR. SCHIVEL IN THE BC SPRINT. HE JUST WALKED OUT OF THE GATE IN A $250K RACE AT MAHONING VALLEY LAST TIME AND WAS NEVER A FACTOR. WILL LIKELY TRY TO FORCE THE PACE TODAY.

#5 FLIGHTLINE 4/5 – WHILE THIS HORSE HAS NO STAKES EXPERIENCE, YOU HAVE TO TAKE NOTICE WHEN THE MORNING LINE MAKES HIM THE 4/5 FAVORITE OVER THE PROVEN DR. SCHIVEL. THE ANSWER IS THIS HORSE IS FAST. HE BROKE HIS MAIDEN BY 13 SETTING BLAZING FRACTIONS AND FINISHING IN 108.3 HERE IN HIS FIRST START LAST APRIL. HIS SECOND START IN SEPTEMBER AT DEL MAR WAS JUST AS IMPRESSSIVE GOING 44.0 TO THE HALF AND BEATING N1X RUNNERS BY 12 IN 108.0, REAL RACEHORSE TIME. RARE TO SEE THIS KIND OF HORSE HEAVILY FAVORED HIS FIRST START IN A STAKES AND A G1 AT THAT BUT IT IS SOMETHING YOU CAN’T IGNORE.

TRIPLE TAP 5/1 – FROM THE BAFFERT BARN IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN AS FLIGHTLINE AND WON HIS N1X RACE IN 108.2. HE WAS A CLOSER LAST TIME BUT WAS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE PACE IN HIS 7 FURLONG DEBUT. HE IS ALSO BY TAPIT LIKE FLIGHTLINE. IF YOU LIKE THAT ONE, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER TRIPLE TAP AS WELL.

 RACE 11 – AMERICAN OAKS G1 $300,000 1 1/4 MILES TURF

#5 GOING GLOBAL 9/5 – VERY LIKELY THE BEST BET OF THE DAY ON A DAY WHEN THE CHALK LOOKS VERY GOOD ON AN EXCELLENT OPENING DAY STAKES CARD. THIS GIRL IS A HALF LENGTH FROM WINNING HER LAST 8 RACES, 7 IN GRADED STAKES. THIS IS ALSO A REPLAY OF THE G1 DEL MAR OAKS WITH FOUR RUNNERS SET FOR THE REMATCH INCLUDING THE TOP 3 FINISHERS.

GLOBAL WON THE G1 DEL MAR OAKS WHILE A CLOSEUP FIFTH. THE ADDED 1/8 OF A MILE WOULD SEEM TO SUIT HER AND THERE IS NOTHING NOT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS PHIL D’AMATO SUPERSTAR.

#1 FLUFFY SOCKS 3/1 – A CHAD BROWN RUNNER WAS THIRD IN THE DEL MAR OAKS JUST A LENGTH BEHIND THE TOP HORSE EARLY BUT AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH WHILE GLOBAL WAS ALREADY IN SECOND ONLY A HEAD OFF THE LEADER, THIS ONE WAS STILL SIXTH AND COULD ONLY GAIN A LENGTH IN THE STRETCH FINISHING THIRD. SHE CAME OUT OF THE OAKS TO WIN THE G2 SANDS POINT AT BELMONT LAST TIME. SHE WAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT THAN HER PREVIUOS STAKES TRIES, SO THAT MAY INDICATE SHE WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO TAKE ON THE TOP HORSE AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH.

#3 CLOSING REMARKS 6/1 – WAS CLOSEST TO THE LEAD IN THE DEL MAR OAKS IN SECOND EARLY AND DROPPED BACK TO FOURTH TURNING FOR HOME AND RE-RALLED TO GET SECOND. THIS ONE HAS LOST 3 TIMES TO GOING GLOBAL AND ONCE TO FLUFFY SOCKS. HER ONLY WINS WERE IN A CAL CUP RACE AND HER MAIDEN SCORE.

#4 NICEST 8/1 – WAS PRESSING FROM SECOND ALL THE WAY IN THE G3 RED CARPET LAST TIME BUT WAS OUTKICKED TO THE FINISH. HER BEST RACE MAY HAVE BEEN HER THIRD BEHIND EURO CHAMPION SNOWFALL, WHO WON THE RACE BY 8. STILL NICEST HAS ONLY WON ONE RACE IN HER CAREER.

#7 BURGOO ALLEY 6/1 – IS THE OTHER D’AMATO RUNNER WHO WON HER FIRST GRADED STAKES, THE G3 AUTUMN LAST TIME.  HASN’T SHOWN SHE IS THIS GOOD YET, BUT D’AMATO EXCELS AT MOVING UP THE TURF RUNNERS UNDER HIS CARE AND SHE WILL BE A DECENT PRICE UNDERNEATH.

 

HAVE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

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