RISEN STAR STAKES AT FAIR GROUNDS SATURDAY 2-19-2022

[consensus Choice]

RACE 13 – RISEN STAR (G2) $400,000 1 1/8 MILES

 

POST TIME 3:58 PST

8 – SMILE HAPPY (7/2)

1 –  PAPPACAP (4/1)

5 – EPICENTER (4/1)

7 –  ZANDON (9/2)

10 -SLOW DOWN ANDY (9/2)

3 –  TRAFALGAR (10/1)

6 –   PIONEER OF MEDINA (10/1)

9 –   BODOCK (10/1)

4 –   TAWNY POINT (12/1)

2 –   RUSSIAN TANK (50/1)

SMILE HAPPY (RUNHAPPY) – IS THE COLT TO BEAT TODAY. HE IS 2-2 LIFETIME WINNING BOTH HIS STARTS BY BIG MARGINS. HE IS THE EXPERTS EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. WHAT WAS REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT HIS KEY RACE WIN IN THE (G2) KENTUCKY JOCKEY CUP WAS THAT HE RACED 4 WIDE MOST OF THE RACE AND STILL BLEW THEM AWAY IN THE STRETCH. ALSO 3 HORSES HAVE EXITED THAT KEY RACE TO WIN G3 KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS, LECOMTE WINNER CALL ME MIDNIGHT (7TH) AT 28/1, HOLY BULL WINNER WHITE ABARRIO (3RD) AT 7/1 AND SAM F. DAVIS WINNER CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (2ND) AT 8/5.  EXPECT A SHORT PRICE DESPITE 7/2 ML ODDS. IT IS HARD TO SEE HIM LOSING THIS RACE.

PAPPACAP (GUNRUNNER) – SHOWED PROMISE FINISHING SECOND BEHIND BAFFERT’S CORNICHE IN THE G1 AMERICAN PHAROAH AND THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE BUT COULD ONLY MANAGE 3RD, ALTHOUGH NARROWLY BEATEN BY LESS THAN A LENGTH, IN THE G3 LE COMTE. THIS GUY SEEMS CONTENT TO NOT PASS HORSES WHICH IS A TROUBLING SIGN.

EPICENTER (NOT THIS TIME) – TRAINED BY STEVE ASMUSSEN, WAS A RUN AWAY 6 LENGTH WINNER IN THE $100K GUNRUNNER STAKES AT FAIR GROUNDS BEFORE BEING THE UNLUCKY LOSER BY A HEAD TO CALL ME MIDNIGHT IN THE G3 LECOMTE. THIS ONE LIKES THE LEAD AND ONLY PIONEER OF MEDINA HAS A SIMILAR RUNNING STYLE, SO THIS RACE MAY BE RUN SLOWER EARLY THAN USUAL, WHICH COULD AGAIN PUT THIS ONE IN THE PICTURE.

ZANDON (UPSTART) – IS A CHAD BROWN RUNNER WHO STRETCHED OUT AND GAVE MO DONEGAL ALL HE WANTED LOSING BY A NOSTRIL IN THE G2 REMSEN AT AQUEDUCT. PROBLEM IS THAT HORSE DID NOT FLATTER THIS ONE BY FINISHING A NON-THREATENING 3RD IN THE G3 HOLY BULL. THE REMSEN HAS NOT BEEN A RACE THAT HAS PRODUCED SERIOUS TRIPLE CROWN CONTENDERS IN RECENT TIMES.

SLOW DOWN ANDY (NYQUIST) – WON THE G2 LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY LAST DECEMBER IN A HARD FOUGHT WIN, BUT HE WAS PULLING AWAY AT THE END. HE WAS FLATTERED BY RUNNER-UP BOB BAFFERT’S MESSIER, WHO CAME BACK TO WIN THE G3 ROBERT B. LEWIS IMPRSSIVELY ON FEBRUARY 6TH AT SANTA ANITA. REDDAM RACING AND TRAINER DOUG O’NEILL WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY AND PREAKNESS WITH I’LL HAVE ANOTHER IN 2012 AND THE 2016 KENTUCKY DERBY WITH NYQUIST, THIS GUYS DADDY.

TRAFALGAR (LORD NELSON) – MADE A MOVE FROM 6TH TO 3RD AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH BUT FLATTENDED OUT TO FINISH 4TH BY 4 LENGTHS IN THE G3 LE COMTE. THAT WAS HIS FIRST STAKES TRY SO A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT COULD PUT HIM IN THE PICTURE BUT THIS IS A MUCH DEEPER RACE THAN HIS LAST.

SUMMARY – THINK THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHOWCASE FOR SMILE HAPPY. ONLY HAS TWO LIFETIME STARTS BUT HAS BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH AND THOSE HORSES BEHIND HIM IN THE G2 KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB HAVE WON 3 G3 DERBY PREPS. DON’T OVERLOOK SLOW DOWN ANDY. HIS DADDY NYQUIST WAS A DERBY WINNER IN 2016 FOR THESE SAME CONNECTIONS AND MESSIER WHO HE BEAT CAME BACK TO DESTROY THE RB LEWIS FIELD, EPICENTER HAS SHOWN PROMISE AND MAY BE ABLE TO CONTROL THE PACE WHICH MAKES HIM DANGEROUS. HIS PRICE WILL BE GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE MONEY SMILE HAPPY IS LIKELY TO TAKE IN THE WAGERING.

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