PREAKNESS DAY STAKES RACES – SATURDAY MAY 15, 2021

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PREAKNESS DAY STAKES RACES

MAY 15, 2021

 RACE 1 – SIR BARTON STAKES $100,000 1 /1/16 MILES

#4 HOZIER (2/5) – ANOTHER BAFFERT LOWER TIER RUNNER WHO SURPRIZINGLY FINISHED SECOND IN THE G2 REBEL AT ODDS OF 18-1 BEHIND CONCERT TOUR. WAS ABSOLUTELY LAST BY 19 LENGTHS IN THE G1 ARKANSAS DERBY. DROPS INTO A MUCH EASIER SPOT TODAY

#5 ROMP (9/2) – BROKE HIS MAIDEN BY 9 IN A MAIDEN CLAIMER AT GULFSTREAM AND REPEATED IN AN OPTIONAL $50K AT AQUEDUCT. FIRST STAKES TRY TODAY.

#1 THE KING CHEEK (5/1) – WON A $35K OPTIONAL CLAIMER AT PARX AND WAS BEATEN BADLY IN A NY STATE-BRED RACE WITH SIMILAR PURSE VALUES.

#3 MARKET CAP (15/1) – ONLY MISSED FINISHING THIRD BY A NOSE IN A $100K LAUREL STAKES LAST OUT.

BETTING SUMMARY – HOZIER’S RACE TO LOSE.

RACE 3 – CHICK LANG (G3) $200,000 6 FURLONGS

#4 JAXON TRAVELER (4/5) – HAS WON 4 OF 5 STARTS MISSING BY A HEAD IN HIS ONLY LOSS. WON THE $200K BACHELOR AT OAKLAWN LAST OUT AND WAS NARROWLY BEATEN IN THE $150K GAZEBO IN HIS PREVIOUS. HE WON HIS FIRST THREE STARTS ALL GATE TO WIRE SCORES AT LAUREL AND PIMLICO. LOOKS ODDS-ON IN THIS SPOT.

#2 MIGHTY MISCHIEF (5/2) – HAS WON LAST 2 IN FRONT RUNNING STYLE AT OAKLAWN AND SHOULD BE WITH THE FAVORITE EARLY. THIS IS HIS FIRST STAKES TRY.

#6 WILLY BOI (3/1) – IS ANOTHER SPEEDSTER WHO IS 3 FOR 4 SPRINTING WITH A NARROW LOSS LAST TIME. WON THE $75 HUTCHESON IN HIS PREVIOUS AND NARROWLY FAILED TO HOLD ON IN A $110K STAKES AT TAMPA BAY LAST TIME. BIG THREAT IN HERE.

BETTING SUMMARY – THIS WILL BE A REAL SPEED THROWDOWN FROM THE BREAK AND THE THREE FAVORITES SHOULD SEPARATE FROM THE REST OF THE FIELD. THE ML FAVORITE, JAXON TRAVELER, GETS THE EDGE RACING AGAINST THE TOUGHER FIELDS. WILLY BOI HAS ALSO HAD SOME STAKES SUCCESS. SHOULD BE FUN TO WATCH.

RACE 6 – GALLORETTE STAKES (G3) $150,000 1 1/16 MILES TURF

#5 MEAN MARY (6/5) – MEAN MARY MEANS BUSINESS. LAST TIME SHE COULDN’T SUSTAIN HER SPEED IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF. BUT PRIOR TO THAT SHE WAS ONLY BEATEN A NECK IN THE G1 DIANA AT SARATOGA, AND WIRED THE G2 NEW YORK, G3 ORCHID AND THE G3 LA PREVOYANTE. COME CATCH HER.

#6 FEEL GLORIOUS (7/2) – HAS PLACED 3 TIMES IN GRADED COMPANY BUT ALL OF HER WINS HAVE BEEN IN NON-GRADED STAKES. SHE USUALLY HITS THE BOARD. HER ONLY TRY VS. THE TOP HORSE SHE FINISHED THIRD BY 5 WITHOUT BEING A THREAT FOR THE WIN.

#3 FLIGHTY LADY (4/1) – FROM CHAD BROWN’S BARN. WON HER U.S. DEBUT IN ALLOWANCE N1X BUT SHE IS STAKES PLACED IN PRICEY FRENCH STAKES. SHOULD BE ACCLIMATED NOW AND READY TO TACKLE US STAKES HORSES. WOULDN’T BE A BIG SURPRISE.

#1 VIGILANTES WAY (5/1) – HER ONLY GRADED STAKES TRY WAS A FLOP. USUALLY HITS THE BOARD IN NON-GRADED STAKES. HER PROBLEM IS SHE WILL BE BATTLING THE TOP HORSE EARLY.

#4 TUNED (8/1) – SEVEN U.S. RACES SINCE SHIPPING IN FROM FRANCE WITH ONLY AN ALLOWANCE WIN FIRST TRY.FOURTH IN TWO G3’S BUT HAS BEEN IN THE SUPERFECTA IN ALL 7 U.S. STARTS. USE UNDERNEATH.

BETTING SUMMARY – WHILE MEAN MARY IS ONE TOUGH CUSTOMER, HARD TO EVER NOT EMBRACE ANY CHAD BROWN RUNNER WITH ABILITY. THINK FLIGHTY LADY MIGHT BE THE ONE WHO CAN RUN MEAN MARY DOWN LATE.

RACE 8 – JAMES W. MURPHY STAKES $100,000 1 MILE TURF

#2 OUTADORE (7/5) – WHILE ALL OF HIS WINS HAVE BEEN IN SPRINTS (TWICE ON THE TURF), THE RACE THAT STICKS OUT WAS HIS THIRD PLACE FINISH IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF LAST NOVEMBER. THERE IS A BIG QUESTION MARK ABOUT IF HE REALLY WANTS TO GO THIS FAR.

#8 T D DANCE (7/2) – HAS THREE EXCELLENT RACES BUT HIS ONLY STAKES TRY WAS A FIFTH PLACE FINISH IN AN OVERNIGHT STAKES AT FAIR GROUNDS.

#6 ARZAK (6/1) – HAD AN 8 LENGTH LEAD IN THE $100K PALM BEACH AND FOLDED LIKE A CHEAP SUIT. HE HAS WON AN OPTIONAL CLAIMER AT THIS DISTANCE.

#3 KASIM (8/1) – IS A GOOD TURF SPRINTER. DON’T UNDERSTAND WHAT HE IS DOING IN THIS RACE.

#7 CHARLES CHROME (8/1) – SHIPS IN FROM INDIANA GRAND, HAS 3 GOOD RACES TO HIS CREDIT BUT NO STAKES AND NO ROUTES ON HIS RESUME.

#1 INDIAN LAKE (10/1) – HAS A GREAT RECORD 12-4-5-3 AT MINOR TRACKS BUT SHOWS NO STAKES OR TURF RACES.

BETTING SUMMARY – GOOD RACE FOR A BEER AND A HOT DOG.

RACE 9 – SKIPAT STAKES $100,000 6 FURLONGS

#5 CHUB WAGON (8/5) – HAS 5 WINS IN 5 STARTS ALL BY BIG MARGINS. FOUR OF THOSE WERE AT PARX, ONE AT AQUEDUCT. HER LAST WAS A WIN IN A $100K PENNSYLVANIA STATE-BRED STAKES AT PARX.

#8 FRENCH EMPIRE (3/1) – HAS WON 6 OF HER LAST 8 RACES AND HAS WON ALL 5 OF HER SPRINTS IN HER LAST 10 STARTS, HOWEVER NONE OF THEM IN STAKES RACES.

#2 CASUAL (9/2) – SHIPS IN FROM OAKLAWN WHERE SHE FINISHED THIRD IN THE $250K CAROUSEL AND WAS SECOND IN THE $200K SPRING FEVER IN HER PREVIOUS. MUST CATCH THE SPEEDSTERS AS SHE IS A LATE RUNNER.

#6 DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA (6/1) – WAS NO MATCH FOR G3 RUNNERS IN THE BARBARA FRITCHIE STAKES, BUT WON HER PRIOR 5 SPRINTS ALL GATE TO WIRE. THE PRIOR 2 WERE $100K STAKES AT LAUREL.

#1 CLUB CAR (8/1) – WAS A LATE RUNNING THIRD IN THE G3 BARBARA FRITCHIE AND FOLLOWED THAT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE ALLOWANCE WIN AT KEENELAND. COULDN’T KEEP UP WITH DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA 4 RACES BACK.

BETTING SUMMARY – PREFER THOSE WITH STAKES SUCCESS. CASUAL RAN WELL IN OAKLAWN STAKES LAST TWO. LIKE DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA AND CLUB CAR OFF THEIR LOCAL STAKES RACES. GOOD BETTING RACE.

RACE 10 – JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT $100,000 5 FURLONGS TURF

#4 THE CRITICAL WAY (5/2) – JUST FORCED THE PACE IN THE G2 SHAKERTOWN AT KEENELAND AND COULDN’T HOLD OFF THE CLASSY BOUND FOR NOWHERE AND IMPRIMIS. HAS 4 WINS AT OR ABOUT THIS DISTANCE.

#13 COMPLETED PASS (7/2) – GOOD RACES IN LAUREL AND PIMLICO TURF SPRINTS WINNING THE $100K KING LEATHERBURY HERE AND THE $100K LAUREL DASH LAST FALL. A NEAR MISS HERE AT PIMLICO IN THE $100K TURF SPRINT LAST OCTOBER.

#1 BOLDOR (6/1) – WON THE $150K KING COTTON AT OAKLAWN BUT SHOWS NO TURF SPRINT STAKES RACES.

#5 HOLLIS (6/1) – WON THE $100K TURF SPRINT LAST OCTOBER AT PIMLICO GATE TO WIRE BUT WAS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND IN THE SHAKERTOWN.

#2 THE CONNECTOR (8/1) – HAS FINISHED THIRD TWICE IN MINOR TURF SPRINTS, BUT HIS SUCCESS HAS BEEN VS. LESSER FOES.

BETTING SUMMARY – REALLY LOVE CRITICAL WAY OFF HIS LAST RACE IN THE SHAKERTOWN AND THE CUT BACK TO 6 FURLONGS. COMPLETED PASS HAS HAD A LOT OF SUCCESS IN SIMILAR RACES IN MARYLAND. HOLLIS TOOK THE JIM MCKAY LAST YEAR IN GATE TO WIRE FASHION AND MUST BE RESPECTED DESPITE HIS POOR SHAKERTOWN RACE.

RACE 11 – MARYLAND SPRINT (G3) $150,000 6 FURLONGS

#5 STRIKE POWER (7/2) – HAS BEEN SOUNDLY BEATEN IN GRADED SPRINT STAKES. LAST TIME HE SUCCEEDED AGAINST THIS KIND OF COMPETITION WAS IN 2019.

#8 SPECIAL RESERVE (9/2) – WAS SECOND IN THE G3 COMMONWEALTH AT KEENELAND. THE HORSE WHO BEAT HIM, FLAGSTAFF, WAS VICTORIOUS 2 WEEKS AGO ON THE DERBY UNDERCARD. CUT BACK TO 6 FURLONGS SHOULD WORK IN HIS FAVOR.

#11 SEVEN NATION ARMY (5/1) – WAS SECOND IN THE $150K KING COTTON BUT DON’T SEE ANY GRADED STAKES SUCCESS IN HIS LAST 10 STARTS.

#1 LAKI (6/1) – PARLAYED HIS THIRD IN THE G3 GENERAL GEORGE AT LAUREL INTO A WIN IN A $100K STAKES AT PIMLICO. THE KEY RACE IN HIS PP’S HOWEVER IS HIS WIN IN THE G3 DEFRANCIS HERE AT PIMLICO LAST OCTOBER. MAJOR PLAYER TODAY.

#7 BREEZY GUST (6/1) – WAS THIRD IN A STATE-BRED $100K RACE AT PARX LAST TIME BUT DOUBTFUL THAT PLAYS WELL IN HERE.

#2 YODEL E. A. WHO (8/1) – NO STAKES SUCCESS IN LAST 10 RACES.

BETTING SUMMARY – LOVE SPECIAL RESERVE AND LAKI IN THIS SPOT OFF THEIR GRADED STAKES EFFORTS. 

RACE 12 – DINNER PARTY STAKES (G2) $250,000 1 1/16 MILES TURF

#5 SACRED LIFE (7/5) – IS NOT ONE OF THE BETTER TURF HORSES CHAD BROWN USUALLY HAS IN HIS BARN. WHILE HE DID JUST FINISH THIRD IN THE G1 MAKERS MARK MILE, THAT RACE DIDN’T FLATTER RIDE A COMET 2 WEEKS AGO. THIS HORSE’S LAST WIN WAS IN THE $106K OCEANPORT AT MONMOUTH. HE WAS FOURTH IN THE G1 TURF CLASSIC AND THE G1 PEGASUS TURF BUT YOU EXPECT BETTER FROM CHAD BROWN’S HORSES.

#1 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (4/1) – THIS ONE ALSO COMES OUT OF THE G1 MAKERS MARK MILE WHERE HE WAS ON TOP OF THE PACE FOR HALF THE RACE AND THEN DROPPED BACK TO FINISH SEVENTH. HIS BEST EFFORTS HAVE ALWAYS COME ON THE FRONT END WHEN HE CAN GET AWAY WITH SLOW FRACTIONS WHICH LIMITS HIS SUCCESS AS MOST SUPERSTARS IN TURF RACING ARE CLOSERS. THE SHORTER DISTANCE HELPS HIM AS HIS LAST 4 RACES AT 1 /16 MILES TURF HAVE RESULTED IN 3 WINS AND A SECOND IN LAST YEAR’S DINNER PARTY. WHILE HE NEVER MADE THE LEAD, HE WAS ALWAYS IN CONTENTION AND HELD ON WELL BEHIND THE GOOD HORSE FACTOR THIS.

#3 KURAMATA (6/1) – IS ANOTHER CHAD BROWN RUNNER. HE IS LIGHTLY RACED, WINNING BOTH STARTS THIS YEAR AFTER MISSING 2020. THOSE WINS WERE AGAINST MAIDENS AND NON-WINNER OF ONE ALLOWANCE COMPANY. THESE ARE TRULY THE TYPE OF RUNNERS WHERE CHAD EXCELS IN DEVELOPING THEM INTO STAKES WINNERS.

#2 ENGLISH BEE (8/1) – HAS WON OR PLACED IN 3 GRADED STAKES, MOST RECENTLY IN JUNE OF 2020. HE FINISHED OFF THE BOARD IN HIS LAST 3 RACES LAST YEAR AND NOW COMES BACK OFF A LAYOFF OF 7 MONTHS FOR BILL MOTT. HIS RUNNING STYLE HAS CHANGED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2020 AND HE USUALLY HAS TOO MUCH TO DO LATE WHICH EXPLAINS 2 SECONDS AND 5 OFF THE BOARD FINISHES IN HIS LAST 7 STARTS LOSING 8 STRAIGHT RACES.

#6 TALK OR LISTEN (8/1) – SHIPPED TO THE U.S. FROM FRANCE MAKING HIS FIRST START IN JUNE 2020. IN 5 TRIES, HIS ONLY GOOD RACE WAS AN OPTIONAL 75K AT TAMPA BAY. HE HAS FAILED IN BOTH STAKES TRIES.

BETTING SUMMARY – CAN’T REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT ANYBODY IN THIS AFFAIR. BEST TO SPEND THE EXTRA TIME GETTING READY FOR WHAT FIGURES TO BE AN EXCITING PREAKNESS.  

RACE 13 – THE PREAKNESS STAKES 1 3/16 MILES (G1) $1,000,000

#3 MEDINA SPIRIT (9/5) – BOB BAFFERT’S FIRST 5 DERBY WINNERS ALL WON THE PREAKNESS (SILVER CHARM, REAL QUIET, WAR EMBLEM, AMERICAN PHAROAH, AND JUSTIFY). LAST YEAR, AUTHENTIC JUST MISSED MAKING IT 6 IN A ROW LOSING NARROWLY TO THE FILLY SWISS SKYDIVER, HOWEVER THIS WAS AFTER A MONTH INSTEAD OF 2 WEEKS DUE TO THE PANDEMICS RESCHEDULING OF THE TRIPLE CROWN SERIES. STILL, THIS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE STATS TO GO AGAINST.

WHILE THERE IS A CLOUD OF SUSPICION HANGING OVER BAFFERT AND THE FAVORITE OVER A POSITIVE DRUG TEST, YOU CAN EXPECT MEDINA SPIRIT TO GIVE IT HIS ALL. HE HAS BEEN FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL 6 STARTS AND TWO OF HIS THREE LOSSES WERE TO HIS VERY HIGHLY REGARDED STABLEMATE LIFE IS GOOD. THE SANTA ANITA DERBY WINNER, ROCK YOUR WORD, WHO BEAT HIM HAD A NIGHTMARE TRIP IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY, WAS NEVER ABLE TO GET ANYWHERE NEAR THE LEAD AND WAS A NON-FACTOR.

ONLY ONE OTHER DERBY RUNNER WILL CONTEST THE PREAKNESS (MIDNIGHT BOURBON) SO YOU WOULD THINK THIS IS A WALKOVER. THINK AGAIN.

#10 CONCERT TOUR (5/2) – THE OTHER BAFFERT RUNNER, WAS MORE HIGHLY REGARDED THAN THE TOP HORSE BUT HIS WILT TO THIRD IN THE STRETCH OF THE ARKANSAS DERBY TOOK HIM OUT OF DERBY CONTENTION. BAFFERT, IN AN INTERVIEW AFTER THE DERBY, SAID HE REGRETTED NOT RUNNING HIM THE WAY HE WAS WORKING DERBY WEEK.

IT IS NOT UNPRECENTED FOR A TRAINER TO BEAT HIS OWN HORSE IN THE TRIPLE CROWN, WAYNE LUKAS DID IT REGULARLY WINNING 7 STRAIGHT TRIPLE CROWN RACES WITH DIFFERENT RUNNERS. HIS OWN HORSE TIMBER COUNTRY BEAT THUNDER GULCH IN THE 1995 PREAKNESS. THUNDER GULCH WHO FINISHED THIRD, CAME BACK TO WIN THE BELMONT.

THIS HORSE IS OWNED BY MARY AND GARY WEST (MAXIMUM SECURITY) AND BAFFERT CANNOT DENY HIS OTHER CLIENT’S A CHANCE TO PARTICIPATE EVEN IF IT COSTS MEDINA SPIRIT THE PREAKNESS.

THE OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON WHO GETS THE LEAD. WHILE MEDINA SPIRIT HAS NEVER BEEN PASSED BY A HORSE, HE ALSO SELDOM PASSES HORSES. BOTH HORSES ALSO HAVE SIMILAR RUNNING STYLES BUT THEN AGAIN IT IS DOUBTFUL THEY WILL DUEL EACH OTHER INTO SUBMISSION. BAFFERT HAS NEVER BEEN AFRAID TO SEND HIS HORSES TO THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A FASCINATING AND STRATEGIC RACE.  

#5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (5/1) – IS A MODEL OF CONSISTENCY FINISHING IN THE MONEY IN EVERY RACE EXCEPT THE KENTUCKEY DERBY WHERE HE ALSO HAD A HORRIBLE TRIP WHILE STILL FINISHING SIXTH. HIS ONLY STAKES WIN WAS THE G2 LECOMTE, BUT HE WAS THIRD IN THE (G2) RISEN STAR AND SECOND IN THE (G2) LOUISIANA DERBY BEHIND KENTUCKY DERBY THIRD PLACE FINISHER HOT ROD CHARLIE.

IF THE BAFFERT RUNNERS CAN BE BEATEN, HE HAS THE BEST CHANCE. HE TOO WILL BE CLOSE UP EARLY MOST LIKELY CHASING THE TOP PAIR IN THIRD. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT HE FINISHED THIRD BEHIND DERBY RUNNER-UP MANDALOUN AND BEAT THAT RIVAL WHEN HE WON THE LECOMTE.

BETTING SUMMARY – WHILE THE PREAKNESS ALWAYS LOOKS CHALKY, IT USUALLY FINDS A WAY TO PAY VERY GENEROUSLY. IF ANY OF THE TOP THREE FINISH OFF THE BOARD, THE TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA COULD PAY WELL AS LONGSHOTS QUITE OFTEN FINDS THEIR WAY INTO THE EXOTICS, OFTEN AS HIGH AS SECOND. THIS IS A RACE TO USE AN <u>ALL</u> WITH 2 OF THE THREE TOP CONTENDERS.

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