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PREAKNESS DAY STAKES RACES
MAY 15, 2021
RACE 13 – THE PREAKNESS STAKES 1 3/16 MILES (G1) $1,000,000
#3 MEDINA SPIRIT (9/5) – BOB BAFFERT’S FIRST 5 DERBY WINNERS ALL WON THE PREAKNESS (SILVER CHARM, REAL QUIET, WAR EMBLEM, AMERICAN PHAROAH, AND JUSTIFY). LAST YEAR, AUTHENTIC JUST MISSED MAKING IT 6 IN A ROW LOSING NARROWLY TO THE FILLY SWISS SKYDIVER. PRETTY STRONG STATS TO GO AGAINST.
WHILE THERE IS A CLOUD OF SUSPICION HANGING OVER BAFFERT AND THE FAVORITE OVER A POSITIVE DRUG TEST, YOU CAN EXPECT MEDINA SPIRIT TO GIVE HIS ALL. HE HAS BEEN FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL 6 STARTS AND TWO OF HIS THREE LOSSES WERE TO HIS HIGHLY REGARDED STABLEMATE LIFE IS GOOD. THE SANTA ANITA DERBY WINNER, ROCK YOUR WORD, WHO BEAT HIM HAD A NIGHTMARE TRIP IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY, WAS NEVER ABLE TO GET ANYWHERE NEAR THE LEAD AND WAS A NON-FACTOR.
ONLY ONE OTHER DERBY RUNNER WILL CONTEST THE PREAKNESS (MIDNIGHT BOURBON) SO YOU WOULD THINK THIS IS A WALKOVER. THINK AGAIN.
#10 CONCERT TOUR (5/2) – THE OTHER BAFFERT RUNNER, WAS MORE HIGHLY REGARDED THAN THE TOP HORSE BUT HIS WILT IN THE STRETCH OF THE ARKANSAS DERBY TOOK HIM OUT OF DERBY CONTENTION. BAFFERT, IN AN INTERVIEW AFTER THE DERBY, SAID THE WAY THIS HORSE WAS WORKING DERBY WEEK, HE REGRETTED NOT RUNNING HIM.
IT IS NOT UNPRECENTED FOR A TRAINER TO BEAT HIS OWN HORSE IN THE TRIPLE CROWN, WAYNE LUKAS DID IT REGULARLY WINNING 7 STRAIGHT TRIPLE CROWN RACES WITH DIFFERENT RUNNERS. HIS OWN HORSE TIMBER COUNTRY BEAT THUNDER GULCH IN THE 1995 PREAKNESS. THUNDER GULCH WHO FINISHED THIRD, CAME BACK TO WIN THE BELMONT.
THIS HORSE IS OWNED BY MARY AND GARY WEST (MAXIMUM SECURITY) AND BAFFERT CANNOT DENY HIS OTHER CLIENT’S A CHANCE TO PARTICIPATE EVEN IF IT COSTS MEDINA SPIRIT THE PREAKNESS.
THE OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON WHO GETS THE LEAD. WHILE MEDINA SPIRIT HAS NEVER BEEN PASSED BY A HORSE, HE ALSO SELDOM PASSES HORSES. BOTH HORSES ALSO HAVE SIMILAR RUNNING STYLES BUT THEN AGAIN IT IS DOUBTFUL THEY WILL DUEL EACH OTHER INTO SUBMISSION. BAFFERT HAS NEVER BEEN AFRAID TO SEND HIS HORSES TO THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A FASCINATING AND STRATEGIC RACE.
#5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (5/1) – IS A MODEL OF CONSISTENCY FINISHING IN THE MONEY IN EVERY RACE EXCEPT THE KENTUCKEY DERBY WHERE HE ALSO HAD A HORRIBLE TRIP WHILE STILL FINISHING SIXTH. HIS ONLY STAKES WIN WAS THE G2 LECOMTE, BUT HE WAS THIRD IN THE (G2) RISEN STAR AND SECOND IN THE (G2) LOUISIANA DERBY BEHIND KENTUCKY DERBY THIRD PLACE FINISHER HOT ROD CHARLIE.
IF THE BAFFERT RUNNERS CAN BE BEATEN, HE HAS THE BEST CHANCE. HE TOO WILL BE CLOSE UP EARLY MOST LIKELY CHASING THE TOP PAIR IN THIRD. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT HE FINISHED THIRD BEHIND DERBY RUNNER-UP MANDALOUN AND BEAT THAT RIVAL WHEN HE WON THE LECOMTE.
BETTING SUMMARY – WHILE THE PREAKNESS ALWAYS LOOKS CHALKY, IT USUALLY FINDS A WAY TO PAY VERY GENEROUSLY. IF ANY OF THE TOP THREE FINISH OFF THE BOARD, THE TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA COULD PAY WELL AS LONGSHOTS QUITE OFTEN FINDS THEIR WAY INTO THE EXOTICS, OFTEN AS HIGH AS SECOND. THIS IS A RACE TO USE AN <u>ALL</u> WITH 2 OF THE THREE TOP CONTENDERS.
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