My Derby picks (been saving all of 2023)

[Michael Taylor]

1, Hit Show:tracked paced and gamely ran on only get upset by a 59-1 winner another effort like that offers him a chance to hit the board. Did the same in the Withers but had splits to run into. Loses his rabbit Artic Arrogance and will have to find another pace setter to do any damage.
2, Verifying: Ran a great race in the Blue Grass but was unable to fend off Tapit Trice. Tracked Clear The Air who set some solid fractions before fading. No excuses for him in that race. Let two long shot runners set a stout pace in the Rebel but couldn’t find a hole to get through.
3,Two Phils: Ran easily in the Jeff Ruby stakes and drew off as they headed into the stretch. Looked strong in this race or was the field much softer? Chased the leaders in the Risen Star and made a tepid move to gain the lead. Didn’t have much to fend off the two less favored runners pass him. In the Lecomte struck the front but was passed by Instant Coffee. It seems to win the Derby he’ll need this field to come back to him and his one move to the wire to be unleashed at the right time.
4, Confidence Game: in the Lecomte raced wide from the start. Stalked the front running 1, Echo Again and was rubber legged in the stretch. Confidently tracked the pace mid pack in the Rebel and took a traffic free wide route home, swept the favorites under the rug and was hand ridden to victory under slight pressure from a late charging Red Route One
5, Tapit Trice: Stepped out the gate in the Tampa Bay derby and was worked the entire race until mid stretch when he seemed to wake up and decide to win the race. If he runs like that today he’ll be sorry. Broke decently in the Blue Grass ans was angle out going intro the turn. Saez pushed him forward in the backstretch and continued asking him all the way to the wire. He got past 3, Verifying but appeared disinterested the entire stretch
6. Kingsbarn: Set the pace in the Louisiana Derby and was allowed to walk the middle of the race and that proved deadly to the rest of the field as he romped home in wire to wire victory
7, Reincarnate: Stalked the pace setter in the Arkansas Derby and had nothing left to go with the winner when he started his move. He barely held on for minor rewards while letting 14, Angel of Empire swoop on by. In the Rebel he raced from the back of the pack and made a move only to have the door shut by a late running 3, Red Route One. Who knows what could have happened if he had claim that path
8, Mage:Didn’t get the best start and was sitting at the back of the pack early. Took advantage of the swift early pace and engage with Cyclone Mischief in the stretch. Unfortunately 15, Forte decided he wanted a win and move past in deep stretch. Had no answer in the Fountain of Youth when 15, Forte decided to go. May have not have gotten the pace he needed
9, Skinner: Showed no early speed in the Santa Anita Derby. He made a big move going into the turn but hung up alongside Mandarin Hero. Looking back in the San Felipe he was behind the entire field following a drowsy pace. Espinoza shook him up, and he responded nicely to claim the show spot despite a 5 wide trip entering the stretch. Can make a late move to vie for minor rewards if he can avoid traffic.
10, Practical Move: Took the rail all the way around the track with Vazquez taking one look over his shoulder before going to work. He just out finished Mandarin Hero to claim top prize. Espinoza literally choked him down heading into the backstretch in the San Felipe. Patiently ridden with a rail trip responded sharply when asked and with just a few taps of the whip won with ease. He won’t get that trip with this post and I’m not sure how he will run off the rail
11, Disarm: Took a less then stellar rail trip in the Louisiana Derby and only managed to outrun a group of tired horses but was unable to chase down the eventual winner 6, Kings barn
12, Jace’s Road: Acted up a bit in the gate in the Louisiana Derby but it didnt seem to do any damage. He helped eventual winner 5, Kings road to set the pace. He was unable to take advantage of the soft pace in the middle of the race and not keep pace with the winner.
13, Sun Thunder: Out of the 4 hole in the Louisiana Derby may have been regulated to the back of the pack getting a squeeze from rivals.Didn’t do much in that race In the Risen Star he tracked the pace and about the half mile pole made his move and ran unimpeded to challenge for the win Tracked the pace and Angled to the rail and seemed as if Hernandez was told to mimic anything moves Tapit Trice did. He had to re-engage after seemingly finding some traffic issues entering the home stretch turn and then didnt have enough to gain on leaders. With the larger Derby field he must avoid any traffic woes to have a shot at the bottom of the gimmicks could make some noise with the perfect setup
14, Angel of Empire: Settled mid pack in the Arkansas derby and was content to let front runners punch it out Prat push the GO button as they hit the home turn, and he responded spinning out of the turn and never had to look back winning easily. in the Risen Star he was placed on a ground saving trip early had to be angled out to about the middle of the track to find room and once he did he easily raced past leaders to claim the win. I can’t count him out today
15, Forte: In the Fountain of Youth he didnt have much problems and easily won when asked. He only had a few horses beat early in the Florida Derby He and Ortiz didnt seem concerned as 8, Mage roll right on by. He had to re-rally at the top of the stretch. That run didnt look strong to be me and a better stretch run by Mage turns him into a loser. I am not 100% sold on him
16, Raise Cain: He trailed 13, Sun Thunder in the Blue Grass and avoided trouble when angled out going into the home turn but was all over the tack in the stretch, He must be better today, or he will surely be an also ran
17, Derma Sotogake:Took the field gate to wire in the UAE Derby with little asking. No mistakes in that huge effort and now must bring that here. In the Saudi Derby let the two leaders run on with the pace they set, and they did not let up. He did run well enough to hold on place, If he kicks aside the UAE curse and improves, he could be a danger here
18, Rocket Can: Raced with early leaders and was able to put away two rivals in mid stretch in the Fountain of Youth. Shipped to Oak lawn to run in the Arkansas derby where he raced mid pack and looked good in the stretch. A derby win would be a mild surprise, but he could end up in the superfecta with an honest effort
19, Lord Miles: The 29-1 runner let the pace develop out front and gave what could be called a dull effort in the Tampa Bay derby.
20, Continuar: May not be able to handle the American style of racing to be real threat
ae21, Cyclone Mischief: Chased some stout fractions in the Florida Derby. He didnt have enough to win and finished a rather decent third beaten by two better runners. No shame in that effort. Raced to the early lead in the Fountain of Youth but was put away by a geared down 15, Forte. If he draws in will provide pace for others
ae22, Mandarin Hero: Chased pace steers in the Santa Anita Derby losing by a nose to 10, Practical Move. Given a few more yards he would have probably ran past to notch the win. If he draws in could run for minor purse money.
ae23, King Russel: Raced behind most pf the group and ran to his odds early on. He bested the rest of the group to claim the place spot at 58-1.

WPS 5-6-17
exacta box 5-6-8-14-15-17
trifecta 5-6-8-14-15-17/5-6-8-13-14-15-17/3-5-6-7-8-9-13-14-15-17-18-ae22
superfecta 5-6-8-14-15-17/5-6-8-14-15-17/5-6-7-8-9-13-14-15-17-18-ae22/1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-13-14-15-17-18-ae22

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