KENTUCKY OAKS STAKES RACES – FRIDAY APRIL 30, 2021

[consensus Choice]

KENTUCKY OAKS STAKES RACES

APRIL 30, 2021

RACE 6 – ALYSHEBA 1 1/16 MILES (G2) $400,000

#6 MAXFIELD (4/5) – WILL LIKELY BE HEAVILY FAVORED. WON FIRST 5 STARTS, INCLUDING THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP FUTURITY, THE G3 MATT WINN AND THE G3 MINESHAFT, THE LAST 2 AT TODAYS DISTANCE. DISAPPOINTED FINISHING THIRD AT EVEN MONEY IN THE SANTA ANITA HANDICAP. HE IS 2 FOR 2 AT CHURCHILL.

#5 ROADSTER (9/2) – HAS HAD MORE SUCCESS SPRINTING THAN GOING A DISTANCE ALTHOUGH HE DID WIN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY IN 2019 AT 1 1/8 MILES. DON’T LIKE THE RECENT FADE IN THE G2 NEW ORLEANS CLASSIC LAST TIME.

#2 SONNEMAN (5/1) – WAS SECOND TWICE BEHIND MAXFIELD IN HIS LAST 4 RACES INCLUDING THE G3 MINESHAFT. ONLY WINS WERE HIS MAIDEN AND 2 OPTIONAL CLAIMERS.

#4 CHESS CHIEF (5/1) – WON THE G2 NEW ORLEANS HANDICAP LAST TIME AND WAS THIRD IN THE MINESHAFT BEHIND MAXFIELD AND SONNEMAN IN HIS PREVIOUS RACE.

#1 VISITANT (8/1) – SHIPS IN FROM A NON-GRADED STAKES WIN AT TURFWAY AND SEEMS OVERMATCHED VS THIS GROUP.

#3 ATTACHMENT RATE (8/1) – WAS SECOND IN THE ELLIS PARK DERBY LAST FALL BEFORE FALTERING IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. NOT LIKELY TO BEAT THESE.

BETTING SUMMARY – MAXFIELD WOULD SEEM TO HAVE THESE AT HIS MERCY, BUT SONNEMAN AND CHESS CHIEF DID FINISH SECOND AND THIRD BEHIND HIM IN THE G3 MINESHAFT. GIVING THEM BOTH A CHANCE TO UPSET, ESPECIALLY CHESS CHIEF OFF HIS IMPRESSIVE SCORE IN THE G2 NEW ORLEANS.

RACE 7 – EDGEWOOD 1 1/16 TURF (G2) $300,000

#6 AUNT PEARL (4/5) – PARLAYED HER WIN IN THE G2 JESSAMINE TO A BREEDER’S CUP WIN IN THE G1 JUVENILE FILLIES. THIS FILLY IS UNDFEATED IN 3 STARTS AND HAS NEVER BEEN HEADED.

#2 GIFT LIST (7/2) – SHIPPED IN FROM ENGLAND TO FINISH SECOND IN THE G2 APPALACHIN AT KEENELAND IN APRIL. SHE WAS CLOSE UP ALL THE WAY AND HAS TO STAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TOP HORSE IF SHE HOPES TO GET BY HER LATE.

#7 ZAASEL (5/1) – FAILED BADLY IN HE FIRST TRIP IN A GRADED ROUTE AND WOULD BE HARD TO ENDORSE HERE.

#1 POSTNUP (6/1) – HAS WON HER LAST 2 TURF ROUTES FROM CLOSE TO THE PACE BUT TRIES STAKES COMPANY FOR THE FIRST TIME.

BETTING SUMMARY – AUNT PEARL OVER GIFT LIST IN A VERY CHALKY EXACTA. THE LATTER SHOULD MAKE THE FAVORITE WORK FOR THE WIN.

RACE 8 – LA TROIENNE 1 1/16 (G1) $500,000

#2 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (8/5) – HARD NOT TO LIKE THIS GIRL OFF HER WIN IN THE G1 KENTUCKY OAKS HERE LAST FALL OVER QUALITY OPPONENTS IN SWISS SKYDIVER WHO CAME BACK TO WIN THE PREAKNESS AND VERY FAST GAMINE. YOU WON’T GET 15/1 TODAY. SHE HAS WON 4 OF HER LAST 5 FOR THE LOADED BRAD COX STABLE.

#3 DUNBAR ROAD (5/2) – COULDN’T HANDLE CHAMPION MONOMONY GIRL IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF FINISHING THIRD, BUT DID WIN THE G1 ALABAMA IN 2019 AT SARATOGA

#7 FINITE (5/1) – FINISHED THIRD IN THE G2 BAYAKOA BEHIND MONOMONY GIRL AND WON THE G2 GOLDEN ROD AND G3 CHILUKKI AT CHURCHILL. SHE ALSO WON THE G2 RACHEL ALEXANDRA AT FAIR GROUNDS LAST YEAR. SHE IS THE REAL DEAL.

#1 ENVOUTANTE (6/1) – WIRED THE G2 FALLS CITY HERE AT CHURCHILL LAST FALL BUT FALTERED LAST TIME IN THE G2 AZERI IN HER RETURN THIS YEAR.

#5 PARIS LIGHTS (8/1) – HAS WON 4 STRAIGHT INCLUDING THE G1 COACHING CLUB OAKS AT SARATOGA. NEVER TAKE A G1 WINNER LIGHTLY.

BETTING SUMMARY – LOOK PRETTY CHALKY IN THE FIRST THREE RACES IN THE OAKS PICK-6. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL IS THE PICK BUT FINITE AND PARIS LIGHTS WILL MAKE IT A VERY COMPETITIVE RACE AND ARE ATTRACTIVE PRICES IN THE MORNING LINE.

RACE 9 – 8 BELLES 7 FURLONGS (G2) $300,000

#10 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (3/1) – BEAT EVERYONE BUT VEQUIST IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLES AND WON THE G1 FRIZETTE IN HER PRIOR START. THOSE WERE ROUTES BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS SHE WON THE G3 SCHUYLVILLE BY 6 OPEN LENGTHS AT SARATOGA AT 6 FURLONGS.

#8 KALYPSO (5/1) – WON THE G2 SANTA YNEZ AT TODAYS DISTANCE 3 BACK AND BAFFERT DOESN’T SHIP THEM UNLESS HE FEELS THEY FIT. SHE HAS NEVER BEEN OFF THE BOARD.

#3 SOUPER SENSATIONAL (6/1) – WON BOTH OF HER 7 FURLONG STARTS BUT THEY WERE BOTH AT WOODBINE. SHE SHOULD APPRECIATE THE CUT BACK IN DISTANCE AS SHE HAS ONLY GOTTEN SMALLER SHARES IN STAKES ROUTES IN HER LAST 3.

#6 SLUMBER PARTY (6/1) – HAS RACED TWICE AT TODAY’S 7 FURLONG DISTANCE, BREAKING HER MAIDEN FIRST OUT AND FINISHING A STRONG CLOSING SECOND IN THE G3 BEAUMONT A KEENELAND LAST TIME.

#9 LI’L TOOTSIE (8/1) – HASN’T TASTED STAKES SUCCESS BUT DID WELL SPRINTING IN HER MAIDEN TRIES.

#11 ABROGATE (8/1) – HAS WON 3 OF 4 SPRINTING, WINNING THE NON-GRADED PURPLE MARTIN AT OAKLAWN LAST TIME.

#1 MAKE MISCHIEF (15/1) – HAS WON 3 OF LAST 4 AGAINST EASIER, BUT LAST FALL WAS COMPETITIVE VS. THE TOP HORSE FINISHING SECOND IN THE G3 SCHUYLVILLE. SHE WAS ALSO SECOND IN THE G2 ADIRONDACK. THE BIG REASON SHE IS A PRICE TODAY IS THAT SHE LOST GROUND IN THE STRETCH IN BOTH RACES AND IS GOING FARTHER TODAY. STILL, EXPECT HER TO BE IN THE LEADING GROUP TURNING FOR HOME.

BETTING SUMMARY – DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE IS THE MOST ACCOMPLISHED FILLY BUT SLUMBER PARTY MAY GIVE HER A CHALLENGE AT A PRICE IN HER THIRD START. KALYPSO WILL BE IN THE HUNT AS WELL.

RACE 10 – TURF SPRINT 5 ½ FURLONGS TURF (G2) $250,000

#8 FAST BOAT (7/2) – LOOKS VULNERABLE. MOST OF HER STAKES SUCCESS HAS COME AT SAM HOUSTON. THE GELDING ALSO RUNS FROM WELL BEHIND WHICH REQUIRES GOOD LUCK IN THESE SHORT TURF SPRINTS. IRAD ORTIZ IS THE RIGHT JOCKEY FOR HIS RUNNING STYLE.

#3 FIYA (4/1) – HAS WON 5 STRAIGHT TURF SPRINTS VIRTUALLY GATE TO WIRE BUT AGAINST MUCH EASIER COMPANY.

#10 SOMBEYAY (4/1) – WHILE SECOND LAST TIME IN THE G3 SAN SIMEON AT 6 FURLONGS ON TURF, THIS ONE’S BEST RACES HAVE COME IN TURF ROUTES. PETER MILLER IS USUALLY SPOT ON WITH HIS SHIPPERS.

#9 DIAMOND OOPS (5/1) – WON THIS RACE LAST FALL COMING FROM LAST TO FIRST.THIS ONE IS A GRADED STAKES WINNER IN DIRT SPRINTS. SHE IS ALSO STAKES PLACES IN G1’S INCLUDING THE SHADWELL TURF MILE IN 2019. LAST PAIR WERE DULL BUT HE HAS BEEN RESTED AND MUST BE RESPECTED. ALWAYS DANGEROUS.

#11 CAROTARI (6/1) – IS A VERY CONSISTENT TURF SPRINT SPECIALIST AT THIS LEVEL BUT USUALLY RACES VS. LESSER COMPANY. FOUR WINS AND 3 BAD BEAT SECONDS IN HIS LAST 10.

#5 JUST MIGHT (8/1) – ANOTHER SHORT TURF SPRINT SPECIALIST WHO HAS FINISHED THIRD TWICE IN GRADE RACES BUT ALSO WOULD PREFER AN EASIER SPOT.

BETTING SUMMARY – WIDE OPEN RACE WHERE YOU WILL BE WISE TO SPREAD IN THE PICK-3,4,5,6. PREFERRING THOSE WITH GRADED STAKES FORM. DIAMOND OOPS AND SOMBEYAY WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY THE TOP PRIZE. LIKE CAROTARI’S CONSISTENCY AND JUST MIGHT UNDERNEATH.

RACE 11 – KENTUCKY OAKS 1 1/8 MILES (G1) $1,250,000

#10 MALATHAAT (5/2) – EXPECTED THIS RACE TO BE BETWEEN TRAVEL COLUMN AND CLAIRIERE, BUT THIS ONE IS THE ML FAVORITE OFF HER STUNNING G1 WIN IN THE ASHLAND AND HER 4 FOR 4 UNDEFEATED RECORD. TODD PETCHER HAS WON THIS RACE 3 TIMES AND SHE HAS ALREADY PROVEN SHE CAN GET THE 1 1/8 DISTANCE.

#6 TRAVEL COLUMN (3/1) – BRAD COX IS GOING FOR AN OAKS-DERBY PARLAY WITH THIS ONE AND ESSENTIAL QUALITY THE KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITE. HAS WON 3 OF HER 5 STARTS AND IMPRESSED LAST TIME WITH A SMASHING WIN IN THE G2 FAIR GROUNDS OAKS OVER RIVAL CLAIRIERE, THEY HAVE RUN 1-2 IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS. A WIN WOULD BE NO SURPRIZE.

#12 SEARCH RESULTS (3/1) – IS TRAINED BY CHAD BROWN WHICH ALWAYS RAISES YOUR EYEBROWS BUT THIS HORSES STAKES SUCCESS HAS BEEN SOLELY AT AQUEDUCT. NEW YORK DIRT FORM DOESN’T SEEM TO TRAVEL WELL. SHE IS UNDEFEATED IN 3 TRIES, BUT I WILL WAIT UNTIL I SEE HER EXCEL ELSEWHERE. ALSO, MOST OF CHAD’S MAJOR STAKES SUCCESS HAS BEEN WITH TURF HORSES.

#3 CLAIRIERE (5/1) – HAS BEEN SUPER CONSISTENT WITH 2 WINS AND 2 SECONDS IN 4 CAREER STARTS. SHE HAS TRIED TRAVEL COLUMN THREE STRAIGHT TIMES AND BEAT HER IN THE (G2) RACHEL ALEXANDRIA. SHE WAS SECOND TWICE, IN THE (G2) GOLDEN ROD AT CHURCHILL AND THE (G2) FAIR GROUNDS OAKS LAST TIME. EXPECT ANOTHER BIG EFFORT.

#4 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL (15/1) – IS A VERY CONSISTENT PRICE HORSE. SHE HAS 3 WINS AND 3 SECONDS IN 7 CAREER STARTS ALMOST COMPETELY IN STAKES COMPANY. BESIDES WIINING THE G2 GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS LAST TIME, SHE WAS SECOND IN THE G2 DAVONA DALE AND SECOND IN THE G1 ALCIBIADES AT KEENELAND FINISHING IN FRONT OF TRAVEL COLUMN.

#5 PASS THE CHAMPAGNE (15/1) – JUST FAILED TO HOLD OFF FAVORITE MALATHAAT IN THE G1 ASHLAND ON THE STRETCHOUT AND WAS WELL BET AT 9/2. YOU WILL BE GETTING A MUCH BETTER PRICE TODAY.

BETTING SUMMARY – IN A WIDE-OPEN KENTUCKY OAKS THAT OFTEN FEATURES UPSETS, MALATHAAT ONLY BEAT LONGSHOT PASS THE CHAMPAGNE BY A HEAD IN THE GRADE 1 ASHLAND. TRAVEL COLUMN AND CLAIRIERE MIGHT RENEW THEIR RIVALRY HERE. CRAZY BEAUTIFUL IS ANOTHER LONGSHOT THAT HAS A LEGITMATE CHANCE OFF HER CONSISTENCY AND HER GREAT EFFORT IN THE G1 ALCIBIADES.

 

 

 

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