[consensus Choice]

KENTUCKY DOWNS STAKES ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 9-12-2020

 

RACE 7 – LADIES TURF FILLIES $500,000

E/S – TOP SPEED BELONGS TO MITCHELL ROAD 8/1. TRACKERS SHOULD BE TAPIT TODAY 5/1 AND REGAL GLORY 9/5.

C – TOP CLOSER IS SECRET MESSAGE 4/1. ALSO RUNNING LATE WILL BE ENGLISH AFFAIR 6/1 AND LADY APPLE 6/1.

 

RACE 8 – LADIES SPRINT (G3) $500,000

E/S – INTO MYSTIC 6/1 HAS THE BEST EARLY FOOT. CARIBA 8/1 WILL BE CHASING.

C – GOT STORMY 2/1 IS CLEARLY THE BEST CLOSER OF THE ML CHOICES.

LS – JAKARTA 10/1 AND SURRENDER NOW 15/1 ARE BOTH LIVE LONGSHOTS WHO ARE FAST EARLY AND EITHER COULD GET THE EARLY LEAD. THEY COULD BE RUNNING 1-2. CHANGE OF CONTROL 15/1 LIKES TO ROLL LATE.

 

RACE 9 – JUVENILE TURF SPRINT STAKES $500,000

THIS RACE WILL BE RUN SUPER FAST EARLY AND IT SHOULD BE A RACE WON BY ONE OF THEM AS THERE ARE NO CLOSERS AMONG THESE  2-YEAR-OLDS.

TOP SPEED IS BODENHEIMER 6/1 AND HE SHOULD HAVE THE LEAD. IN CLOSE PURSUIT SHOULD BE OUTADORE 2/1, COWAN 8/1 AND COUNTRY FINAL 9/2. THESE 3 ARE VERY EVENLY MATCHED. THEIR GOAL AFTER SEPARATING FROM THE PACK IS TO HAVE ENOUGH LEFT TO RUN DOWN THE LEADER.

 

RACE 10 – KENTUCKY TURF CUP (G3) $1,000,000

THIS 1 1/2 MILE $1M TURF EVENT FIGURES TO BE A CRAWL EARLY.

E/S –THERE ARE NO CONTENDERS WITH ANY EARLY SPEED.  SEE THE LONGSHOT SECTION BELOW FOR THAT DISCUSSSION.

C – ZULU ALPHA 7/5 IS EVENLY MATCHED LATE WITH ARKLOW 9/2.

LS (E/S) – ONLY REASONABLE LONGSHOT WITH EARLY SPEED IS GRAND JOURNEY 15.1. HOWEVER, EARLY LEADER IS LIKELY TO BE AMERICAN TATTOO 30/1. EONS 20/1, CHANGI 50/1 AND TINTORETTO 30/1 WILL ALL BE CHASING EARLY.

LS (C) – HE’S NO LEMON 10/1 AND HIERARCHY 10/1 ARE THE LONGSHOTS TO FEAR FROM BEHIND IF THE TOP 2 CAN’T GET CLEAR LATE.

 

RACE 11 – TURF SPRINT (G3) $700,000

E/S – BOUND FOR NOWHERE 5/1 IS THE CLEAR EARLY LEADER AMONG THE FAVORITES. BOTH IMPRIMIS 8/1 AND KANTHAKA 5/1 WILL BE WITHIN SHOUTING DISTANCE.

C – FRONT RUN THE FED 5/1, STUBBINS 6/1 AND TOTALLY BOSS 9/2 ARE THE LATE RUNNERS TO FEAR.

LS – IF ADMIRAL LYNCH 15/1 OR RICHIESINTHEHOUSE 15/1 RUN THEIR BEST RACE, BOUND FOR NOWHERE WILL HAVE LOTS OF PRESSURE EARLY. AMERICAN ANTHEM 12/1 CAN GET A PIECE LATE.  

 

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