KENTUCKY DERBY STAKES RACES – SATURDAY MAY 1, 2021

[consensus Choice]

KENTUCKY DERBY STAKES RACES 2021

RACE 6 – DISTAFF TURF MILE 1 MILE TURF (G2) $500,000

#5 GOT STORMY (8/5) – IS A NICE CONSISTENT CLASSY MARE WHO ALWAYS GIVES HER BEST. SHE JUST NOSED ZOFELLE IN THE G3 HONEY FOX AT GULFSTREAM AT THIS DISTANCE. BUT SHE ALSO WAS SECOND IN THE PAST IN THE G1 4STARDAVE AND G1 KILROE BOTH AGAINST MALES, AND SHE WON THE G1 MATRIARCH AT DEL MAR IN 2019 ALL AT THIS MILE DISTANCE. SHE HAS WON 50% OF HER RACES AT THIS DISTANCE AND HAS LIFETIME EARNINGS OF OVER $2 MILLION.

#4 ZOFELLE (2/1) – JUST MISSED BY A NOSE TO THE TOP HORSE LAST TIME AND WON THE G3 MARSHUA’S RIVER IN HER PREVIOUS RACE. SHE IS NOT AS ACCOMPLISHED AS THE TOP HORSE BUT THEY WERE NOSES APART AT THE FINISH LAST TIME OUT.

#6 BLOWOUT (7/2) – IS A CHAD BROWN RUNNER WHO JUST MISSED BY A NOSE IN THE G1 MATRIARCH LAST NOVEMBER. SHE IS ULTRA GAME FINISHING TOP 3 IN ALL 11 STARTS. HOWEVER, SHE HAS WON ONLY TWICE AND HAS 7 NEAR MISS SECONDS IN HER LAST 10 RACES. SHE SEEMS TO ALWAYS FIND SOMEONE TO BEAT HER.

#3 NEW YORK GIRL (8/1) – HAS BEEN IN THE MONEY IN GRADED STAKES HER LAST 2 AT TAMPA BAY SINCE COMING FROM IRELAND. SHE IS IN TOUGH HERE VS. G1 PLACED MARES.

BETTING SUMMARY – GOT STORMY IS THE HORSE TO BEAT. ZOFELLE NEARLY ACCOMPLISHED THAT FEAT LAST TIME. BLOWOUT IS THE HORSE TO USE UNDERNEATH AS SHE ALWAYS IS RIGHT THERE BUT SELDOM FINDS THE WINNERS CIRCLE.

RACE 7 – DERBY CITY DISTAFF 7 FURLONGS (G1) $500,000

#4 GAMINE (1/5) – IS UNDEFEATED IN 4 CAREER SPRINTS AND WON THEM BY DAYLIGHT INCLUDING THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT AND THE G1 TEST STAKES. HER ONLY LOSS WAS IN LAST FALLS G1 KENTUCKY OAKS BEHIND SHEDARESTHEDEVIL AND SWISS SKYDIVER. IT WAS LIKELY TOO FAR FOR HER BUT SHE IS BACK AT HER GAME TODAY. CATCH HER IF YOU CAN.

#3 BELL’S THE ONE (6/1) – YOU WON’T FIND TOO MANY HORSES MORE HONEST ESPECIALLY AT THIS DISTANCE THAN THIS ONE. SHE WON THIS RACE LAST YEAR NOSING OUT SERENGETI EMPRESS. THE PROBLEM IS THE LAST TIME SHE FACED GAMINE SHE LOST BY OVER 6 LENGTHS IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT. SHE NEEDS A PACE TO RUN AT.

#2 SCONSIN (8/1) – WON THE 8 BELLES IN HER LAST RACE IN SEPTEMBER BUT WAS A DISTANT FOURTH BEHIND GAMINE IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP FINISHING ALMOST ON EVEN TERMS WITH BELL’S THE ONE.

BETTING SUMMARY – THIS IS GAMINE’S RACE TO LOSE AT A VERY SHORT PRICE.

RACE 8 – PAT DAY MILE 1 MILE (G2) $500,000

#3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR (3/1) – WON HIS FIRST 4 STARTS INCLUDING THE G1 CHAMPAGNE AT BELMONT LAST NOVEMBER. HOWEVER, HIS FADE JOBS IN THE BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE AND THE SOUTHWEST IN HIS LAST TWO LEAVES A LARGE SHADOW OF DOUBT.

#8 DREAM SHAKE (7/2) – FINISHED A DISTANT THIRD IN BOTH ROUTE STAKES TRIES. HOWEVER, HIS LAST WAS IN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY SO THIS IS A MUCH EASIER SPOT WITH NO LIFE IS GOOD OR ROCK YOUR WORLD SIGNED ON.

#6 STARRININMYDREAMS (5/1) – WAS A FADING THIRD IN THE G3 LEXINGTON AFTER MAKING NO IMPACT IN THE G2 RISEN STAR OR THE G2 LOUISIANA DERBY.

#4 DEFUNDED (6/1) – WAS A DISTANT FOURTH BEATEN 11 IN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY. THAT BEING SAID, HE WAS ONLY A LENGTH BACK OF DREAM SHAKE, SO THIS IS A BIG CLASS DROP.

#5 PREVALENCE (6/1) – WAS A FADING SIXTH IN A SLOW WOOD MEMORIAL.

BETTING SUMMARY – THIS IS A GOOD RACE TO GET A HOT DOG AND A BEER. BUT IF YOU HAVE TO PLAY EVERY RACE THE ONLY GRADED WINNER IS JACKIE’S WARRIOR.  DREAM SHAKE AND DEFUNDED BOTH DROP OUT OF THE SANTA ANITA DERBY WHOSE WINNER ROCK YOUR WORLD WILL BE ONE OF THE TOP CHOICES IN TODAY’S KENTUCKY DERBY.

RACE 9 – AMERICAN TURF 1 3/16 MILES TURF (G2) $500,000

#4 ANNEX (7/2) – IS UNDEFEATED IN 3 STARTS. HIS LAST TWO WERE NON-GRADED STAKES WINS IN THE 100K CUTLER BAY AND THE 100K PALM BEACH AT GULFSTREAM AT A MILE AND 1 1/16 MILES. HIS RUNNING STYLE SUGGESTS THE ADDED DISTANCE IS NOT A PROBLEM.

#13 SCARLET SKY (4/1) – IS THE PROVEN COMMODITY, WINNING THE G3 TRANSYLVANIA AT KEENELAND AT 1 /16 ON TURF. IN HIS PRIOR RACE HE LOST BY A HEAD TO THE TOP HORSE.

#5 DU JOUR (5/1) – HAS WON HIS LAST 2 TURF STARTS AT A MILE BUT THIS IS HIS DEBUT IN STAKES COMPANY. HE RACES ON OR FORCING THE PACE.

#2 WINFROMWITHIN (8/1) – HAS WON GATE TO WIRE IN HIS LAST TWO. HIS LAST WAS IN A 75K OVERNIGHT STAKES AT TAMPA BAY.

BETTING SUMMARY – ANNEX AND SCARLET SKY ARE THE TOP 2 TO FEAR. THEY HAVE SIMILAR RUNNING STYLES LAYING FAR BACK AND MAKING MONSTER MOVES BY THE TOP OF THE STRETCH. ANNEX HAS YET TO WIN IN GRADED COMPANY. THE HORSE HE BEAT IN THE PALM BEACH SCARLET SKY CAME RIGHT BACK TO WIN A G3. HARD TO PICK BETWEEN THESE TWO.

RACE 10 – CHURCHILL DOWNS SPRINT 7 FURLONGS (G1) $500,000

#4 FLAGSTAFF (3/1) – COMES OFF A SOLID WIN IN THE G3 COMMONWEALTH AT KEENELAND. THAT WIN ENDED A 6 RACE LOSING STREAK. HE ALSO SHOWS A WIN IN THE G2 SAN CARLOS AT SANTA ANITA. BOTH WINS WERE AT TODAY’S DISTANCE. HE ALSO SHOWS 4 TOUGH BEAT SECONDS VS. GRADE 2 SPRINTERS.  

#9 WHITMORE (7/2) – IS AN AWESOME VETERAN 8YO GELDING WITH A CAREER RECORD OF 40-15-13-3 WINNING OVER $4.3 MILLION. KNOWN FOR HIS PROWESS AT OAKLAWN, HIS UPSET WIN IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT AT KEENELAND LAST NOVEMBER AT  18-1 PUT THAT MYTH TO REST. HE IS GETTING A LITTLE LONG IN THE TOOTH BUT ALWAYS GIVES HIS BEST.

#2 MIND CONTROL (6/1) – WON 3 GRADED STAKES IN A ROW INCLUDING A G1 AT THIS DISTANCE AT THE END OF 2019 AND EARLY 2020 AND HAS LOST 7 STRAIGHT RACES SINCE. HE HAS HIT THE BOARD 3 TIMES IN THOSE 7 STARTS IN GRADED COMPANY BUT HAS LOST THE WINNING EDGE.

#3 BASIN (8/1) – WON LAST OUT IN THE NON-GRADED SHACKLETON LAST OUT AT THIS DISTANCE WHERE HE IS 2 FOR 2. HE WAS SECOND IN THE G2 AMSTERDAM IN HIS PREVIOUS. AS A PRECOCIOUS 2YO, HE WON THE G1 HOPEFUL BY 6 OPEN LENGTHS.

#5 TAP IT TO WIN (8/1) – WAS SECOND IN THE G1 H ALLEN JERKINS AT SARATOGA LAST SEPTEMBER

BETTING SUMMARY – A WIDE OPEN RACE. WHITMORE IS THE MOST ACCOMPLISHED RUNNER IN THE FIELD BUT IS ONLY 1 FOR 5 BOTH AT CHURCHILL AND AT THE DISTANCE. FLAGSTAFF IS CONSISTENTLY IN THE PICTURE BUT WIN SHY. ALL THE CONTENDERS HAVE WON OR PLACED IN G1 OR G2 SPRINTS.

RACE 11 – TURF CLASSIC STAKES 1 1/8 TURF (G1) $1,000,000

#3 COLONEL LIAM (3/1) – HAS WON 3 IN A ROW AND 4 OF 5 SINCE STEPPING ONTO THE TURF COURSE. THE BEST OF THESE WINS WAS IN THE G1 PEGASUS WORLD CUP TURF INVITATIONAL. HIS ONLY LOSS IN THAT RUN WAS TO DOMESTIC SPENDING BY LESS THAN A LENGTH AFTER BEING BUMPED HARD AND PINCHED AT THE BREAK.  

#7 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT (4/1) – IS A SERIOUS THREAT ON THE FRONT END WITH 5 WINS AND 3 SECONDS VS. TOP CLASS COMPANY. HE NARROWLY FAILED TO WIN THE G1 KILROE AT SANTA ANITA AND THE G1 HOLLYWOOD DERBY AT DEL MAR LAST NOVEMBER. HIS WINS WERE IN THE G2 MATHIS BROTHERS MILE, THE G2 TWILIGHT DERBY, THE G3 LAJOLLA AND THE G3 CECIL B DEMILLE.

#5 DOMESTIC SPENDING (9/2) – HAS WON 4 OF 5 CAREER TURF STARTS AND HAILS FROM THE CHAD BROWN BARN. HIS WINS INCLUDE THE G1 HOLLYWOOD DERBY LAST OUT IN NOVEMBER. CHAD BROWN A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO RAN 1-2-3 IN THIS RACE. HIS ONLY LOSS WAS ALSO CAUSED BY A SLOW START AT THE BREAK.

#4 IVAR (5/1) – WON THE PRESTIGOUS G1 SHADWELL TURF MILE AT KEENELAND LAST OCTOBER. HE WAS LAST SEEN FINISHING FOURTH BEATEN ONLY 2 LENGTHS IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP TURF MILE.

#9 RIDE A COMET (5/1) – COMES OFF A SECOND PLACE FINISH IN THE G1 MAKERS MARK 3 WEEKS AGO AT KEENELAND

#6 DIGITAL AGE (8/1) – WON THE TURF CLASSIC LAST NOVEMBER FOR THE CHAD BROWN BARN BEFORE A DISMAL FINISH IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP MILE.

BETTING SUMMARY – IN A RACE FILLED WITH DEEP CLOSERS, SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO GET AWAY ON THE FRONT END. IF THAT TACTIC FAILS, THIS WILL BE A WILD SCRAMBLE IN THE STRETCH. THIS IS A DEEP RACE THAT HAS LEGITMATE CONTENDERS TOP TO BOTTOM. THIS IS A RACE TO GO DEEP IN ALL YOUR HORIZONTAL WAGERS.

RACE 12 – KENTUCKY DERBY 1 1/4 MILES (G1) $3,000,000

#14 ESSENTIAL QUALITY (2/1) – THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE, IS UNDEFEATED IN 5 CAREER STARTS. TRYING TO BECOME THE THIRD BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE WINNER TO WIN THE DERBY ALONG WITH STREET SENSE AND NYQUIST. WON THE. G1 BLUEGRASS STAKES NARROWLY OVER HIGHLY MOTIVATED (10/1).

HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF HAVING A VERSATILE RUNNING STYLE SCORING TWICE PRESSING THE PACE AND 3 TIMES COMING FROM OFF THE PACE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT IN THE BC JUVENILE, HOT ROD CHARLIE (8/1) ONLY MISSED BY THREE QUARTERS OF A LENGTH AND KEEPMEINMIND (50/1), FINISHED THIRD BEATEN ONLY 2 LENGTHS.

THE DESERVING FAVORITE. SINCE THE INTRODUCTION OF THE POINT SYSTEM IN 2013, FAVORITES HAVE BEEN WINNING THIS RACE AT A HEALTHY CLIP AFTER GOING 0-29 PRIOR TO THAT. THE ONE TO BEAT.

#15 ROCK YOUR WORLD (5/1) – SEEMS THE BIGGEST THREAT OFF HIS DOMINANT WIN IN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY, A VERY KEY PREP RACE OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. IT WAS HIS FIRST DIRT EFFORT AFTER WINNING HIS FIRST 2 RACES ON TURF. SWITCHES BACK TO THE MORE EXPERIENCED JOEL ROSARIO WHO RODE HIM IN HIS MAIDEN WIN. NEEDS TO BE NEAR THE LEAD WHICH SHOULD BE A VERY CROWDED PLACE, BUT RECENT DERBY’S HAVE BEEN WON BY HORSES WHO RUN NEAR THE FRONT. LIKE THIS GUY A LOT.

#1 KNOWN AGENDA (6/1) – WON THE FLORIDA DERBY LAST TIME WHICH IS A GREAT DERBY PREP RACE THAT HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST 7 DERBY WINNERS SINCE 2000, THE LAST, MAXIMUM SECURITY WON IN 2019 ALTHOUGH WAS DISQUALIFIED.

THIS HORSE HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE ADDITION OF BLINKERS AND MIGHT HAVE BEEN A STRONG SECOND CHOICE TO ESSENTIAL QUALITY EXCEPT HE DREW THE NUMBER 1 POST WHICH IS THE KISS OF DEATH IN THE DERBY. ONLY ONE HORSE, FERDINAND, SUCCEEDED IN THE LAST 37 YEARS. IT VIRTUALLY DESTROYED LOOKING FOR LUCKY’S CHANCES A FEW YEARS BACK. THAT BEING SAID YOU CAN’T JUST DISCARD HIM, BUT YOU SHOULD ONLY PLAY HIM LIGHTLY BASED ON HIS POOR POST.

#9 HOT ROD CHARLIE (8/1) – IS FROM THE DOUG O’NEILL BARN THAT PRODUCED 2 DERBY WINNERS SINCE 2014, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER AND NYQUIST. HIS GATE TO WIRE SCORE IN THE LOUISIANA DERBY WOULDN’T QUALIFY HIM TO BE A CONTENDER HERE, BUT HIS NEAR MISS IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE BEHIND ESSENTIAL QUALITY IS THE KEY TO PLAYING HIM. ALTHOUGH THE R B LEWIS WAS A NECK LOSS, THAT IS THE SAME PREP RACE O’NEILL USED FOR I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. THIS ONE WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR SHOCK IF HE ENDED UP WITH THE ROSES.

#7 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (10/1) – IS GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION BECAUSE OF CHAD BROWN BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY HIS HUGE RACE IN THE BLUE GRASS STAKES WHERE HE NEARLY UPSET THE FAVORITE ESSENTIAL QUALITY. THE BELIEF IS THAT THIS MAY NOT BE HIS BEST DISTANCE OR MORE SPEED WILL DO HIM IN, BUT ANYONE WHO COMES CLOSE TO THE TOP HORSE HAS TO BE RESPECTED.

#8 MEDINA SPIRIT (15/1) – EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT A FAN, YOU NEVER WANT TO IGNORE BOB BAFFERT IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. HE HAS WON 6 OF THEM AND ONLY LOST WITH CAVONNIER IN 1995 BY A NOSE IN THE LAST JUMP TO GRINDSTONE. BAFFERT COULD EASILY HAVE HAD 8 DERBY WINS IF LOOKING FOR LUCKY HADN’T DRAWN THE DREADED RAIL. THIS HORSE ALSO COMES OUT OF THE SANTA ANITA DERBY AS DID MANY OF BAFFERT’S DERBY WINNERS. WHILE HE DIDN’T WIN THAT PREP RACE, NEITHER DID SILVER CHARM, REAL QUIET OR AUTHENTIC WHO ALL WENT ON TO WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. UNDERESTIMATE HIM AT YOUR PERIL.

BETTING SUMMARY – I REALLY THINK THIS IS ESSENTIAL QUALITY’S RACE TO LOSE. BUT THIS IS A DEEP FIELD AND A WIN BY ROCK YOUR WORLD OR HOT ROD CHARLIE WOULDN’T SURPRISE ME. KNOWN AGENDA’S DRAW IS A TOUGH BREAK. HARD TO USE HIM IN DEEP EXOTICS, MAYBE IN AN EXACTA OR STRAIGHT BET JUST IN CASE HE CAN OVERCOME THIS TERRIBLE DERBY POST.

THE EARLY BETTING ON FRIDAY WHICH HAS BEEN VERY PREDICTIVE OF KENTUCKY DERBY RESULTS ARE:

#14 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 6-5

#15 ROCK YOUR WORLD 9-2

#9   HOT ROD CHARLIE 7-1

EVERYONE ELSE IS 15-1 AND HIGHER.

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