KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – MAY 1, 2021

[consensus Choice]

RACE 12 – KENTUCKY DERBY 1 1/4 MILES (G1) $3,000,000

#14 ESSENTIAL QUALITY (2/1) – THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE, IS UNDEFEATED IN 5 CAREER STARTS. TRYING TO BECOME THE THIRD BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE WINNER TO WIN THE DERBY ALONG WITH STREET SENSE AND NYQUIST. WON THE G1 BLUEGRASS STAKES NARROWLY OVER HIGHLY MOTIVATED (10/1).

HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF HAVING A VERSATILE RUNNING STYLE SCORING TWICE PRESSING THE PACE AND 3 TIMES COIMING FROM OFF THE PACE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT IN THE BC JUVENILE, HOT ROD CHARLIE (8/1) ONLY MISSED BY THREE QUARTERS OF A LENGTH AND KEEPMEINMIND, (50/1) FINISHED THIRD BEATEN ONLY 2 LENGTHS.

THE DESERVING FAVORITE AND SINCE THE INTRODUCTION OF THE POINT SYSTEM IN 2013 FAVORITES HAVE BEEN WINNING THIS RACE AT A HEALTHY CLIP AFTER GOING 0-29 PRIOR TO THAT. THE ONE TO BEAT.

#15 ROCK YOUR WORLD (5/1) – SEEMS THE BIGGEST THREAT OFF HIS DOMINANT WIN IN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY, A VERY KEY PREP RACE OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. IT WS HIS FIRST DIRT EFFORT AFTER WINNING HIS FIRST 2 RACES ON TURF. SWITCHES BACK TO THE MORE EXPERIENCED JOEL ROSARIO WHO RODE HIM IN HIS MAIDEN WIN. NEEDS TO BE NEAR THE LEAD WHICH SHOULD BE A VERY CROWDED PLACE, BUT RECENT DERBY’S HAVE BEEN WON BY HORSES WHO RUN NEAR THE FRONT. LIKE THIS GUY A LOT.

#1 KNOWN AGENDA (6/1) – WON THE FLORIDA DERBY LAST TIME WHICH IS A GREAT DERBY PREP RACE WHICH HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST 7 DERBY WINNERS SINCE 2000, THE LAST MAXIMUM SECURITY IN 2019 ALTHOUGH DISQUALIFIED.

THIS HORSE HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE ADDITION OF BLINKERS AND MIGHT HAVE BEEN A STRONG SECOND CHOICE TO ESSENTIAL QUALITY EXCEPT HE DREW THE NUMBER 1 POST WHICH IS THE KISS OF DEATH IN THE DERBY. ONLY ONE HORSE, FERDINAND, SUCCEEDED IN THE LAST 37 YEARS. IT VIRTUALLY DESTROYED LOOKING FOR LUCKY’S CHANCES A FEW YEARS BACK. THAT BEING SAID YOU CAN’T JUST DISCARD HIM, BUT YOU SHOULD PLAY HIM LIGHTLY JUST BASED ON THE DRAW. IT IS A SHAME THAT THEY DIDN’T STAY WITH THE SYSTEM OF LETTING THE TRAINERS CHOOSE THEIR OWN POST FROM THOSE REMAINING.

#9 HOT ROD CHARLIE (8/1) – IS FROM THE DOUG O’NEILL BARN THAT PRODUCED 2 DERBY WINNERS SINCE 2014, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER AND NYQUIST. HIS GATE TO WIRE SCORE IN THE LOUISIANA DERBY WOULDN’T QUALIFY HIM TO BE A CONTENDER HERE, BUT HIS NEAR MISS IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE BEHIND ESSENTIAL QUALITY IS THE KEY TO HIM. AND ALTHOUGH THE R B LEWIS WAS A NECK LOSS, THAT IS THE SAME PREP O’NEILL USED FOR I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. THIS ONE WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR SHOCK IF HE ENDED UP WITH THE ROSES AT A PRICE.

#7 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (10/1) – IS GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION BECAUSE OF CHAD BROWN BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY HIS HUGE RACE IN THE BLUE GRASS STAKES WHERE HE NEARLY UPSET THE FAVORITE ESSENTIAL QUALITY. THE BELIEF IS THAT THIS MAY NOT BE HIS BEST DISTANCE OR MORE SPEED WILL DO HIM IN, BUT ANYONE WHO COMES CLOSE TO THE TOP HORSE HAS TO BE RESPECTED.

#8 MEDINA SPIRIT (15/1) – EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT A FAN, YOU NEVER WANT TO IGNORE BOB BAFFERT IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. HE HAS WON 6 OF THEM AND ONLY LOST WITH CAVONIER IN 1995 BY A NOSE IN THE LAST JUMP. BAFFERT COULD EASILY HAVE HAD 8 DERBY WINS IF LOOKING FOR LUCKY HADN’T DRAWN THE DREADED RAIL. THIS HORSE ALSO COMES OUT OF THE SANTA ANITA DERBY AS DID MANY OF BAFFERT’S DERBY WINNERS. WHILE HE DIDN’T WIN IT, NEITHER DID SILVER CHARM, REAL QUIET OR AUTHENTIC WHO ALL WENT ON TO WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. UNDERSESTIMATE HIM AT YOUR PERIL.

 BETTING SUMMARY – REALLY THINK THIS IS ESSENTIAL QUALITY’S RACE TO LOSE. BUT THIS IS A DEEP FIELD AND A WIN BY ROCK YOUR WORLD OR HOT ROD CHARLIE WOULDN’T SURPRISE ME. KNOWN AGENDA, IF HE CAN DUPLICATE FERDINAND’S HERCULEAN EFFORT AND OVERCOME THE RAIL DRAW, HAS THE CREDENTIALS. THIS IS A REALLY GOOD BETTING RACE AND I WILL BE USING ALL OF THE ABOVE IN SOME FASHION IN EXOTIC BETS, MAKING MY TICKETS A BIT LARGER ON THE LOGICAL AND DESERVING FAVORITE ESSENTIAL QUALITY.

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