KEENELAND RACE 9 ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 10/12/2019

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KEENELAND RACE 9 ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 10/12/2019

RACE 9 – 1 1/8 MILES (TURF) QEII CUP (G1) $500,000

3 – CAMBIER PARC (8/5)

5 – CASTLE LADY (7/2)

6 – CAFÉ AMERICANO (6/1)

8 – VARENKA (6/1)

9 – REGAL GLORY (6/1)

 

3 – CAMBIER PARC is Chad Brown who just won the G1 Del Mar Oaks at this distance on the lawn. That race was preceded by a third-place finish in the G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational behind the brilliant Concrete Rose. She is certainly the one to beat today.

5 – CASTLE LADY comes here off a fifth-place finish in the G1 Coronation Stakes in June at Royal Ascot. That was her first loss in 4 starts. Her key race was her previous start, a win at Longchamp in Paris in a G1 in May. She hasn’t been this far but was behind runners in her previous and was gaining ground indicating she can rate or be close to the pace and succeed. As good as the top horse is, Euro’s shipping in are often vastly superior. Won’t be surprised if she wins this.  

6 – CAFÉ AMERICANO is the second of three Chad Brown runners in here. Just came from next to last to win the G3 Pucker Up at Arlington on Million Day. She failed to threaten in her G1 try in the G1 Belmont Oaks Inv, but Chad Brown horses should never be underestimated especially in Graded Stakes. Likely to have her hands full trying to beat 2 G1 winners but will give it her best shot.

8 – VARENKA dead-heated with Regal Glory in the G2 Lake Placid at Saratoga in August. While quality filly, has been limited to minor awards in most of her stakes tries and like Café Americano failed her only G1 test.

9 – REGAL GLORY is the third Chad Brown runner winning 5 of her 7 starts. Won the G3 Lake George in her previous and dead-heated with Varenka last time in the G2 Lake Placid. Has finished second in 2 other Graded tries but faces G1 horses for the first time. Wouldn’t be the first time Chad Brown has filled all 3 spots in the Trifecta but think a win here would be a stretch to expect.

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