KEENELAND RACE 7 ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 10/16/2019
RACE 7 – 1 MILE (TURF) – ALW 75,000 N2X
5 – EMARAATY (7/5)
6 – COMBATANT (4/1)
10 – MR DUMAS (5/1)
16 – CREDIT SWAP (6/1)
2 – PATRIOT DRIVE (8/1)
4 – TIGERS RULE (8/1)
5 – EMARAATY is from the Chad Brown barn and drops out of the G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap when fourth the entire trip. Brown’s second-place finisher in that race Sacred Life already dropped into an Allowance race and was an impressive winner here. This colt won her debut in the U.S. off a year layoff in his previous race, an Optional Claiming 62K/N2X. Was previously trained by European Hall of Fame trainer John Gosden. Lost by a nose in a $133,000 Handicap in a 7 Furlong turf sprint at Goodwood in May 2018.
6 – COMBATANT just missed by a nose last time in a mile turf race vs Optional Claiming 62K/N2X. If you go 7 races back, you will see a half length loss in the G2 Mathis Brothers Mile at Santa Anita in December 2018. The BIG negative is he seldom wins, 20-2-5-3 and is winless on turf in 7 starts. By the way, finished fourth behind the top horse in his allowance win July 27 at Saratoga.
16 – CREDIT SWAP the strongest competition for the top horse but needs 4 scratches to get into the race. He led from the start and only failed to hold on by half a length in the 1 1/8 G3 Virginia Derby at Colonial Aug 31. He could lead for a long way dropping back to a mile at nice odds.
4 – TIGERS RULE has finished in the money 3 times in row vs similar company. He also struggles with winning having lost his last 9 and owns an overall turf record of 12-2-4-1.