KEENELAND RACE 5 ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 10/10/2019
RACE 5 – 1 MILE (TURF) ALW 73000 NIX
5 – THANKS BE (3/1)
1 – TUNED (7/2)
7 – ZIP DRIVE (7/2)
4 – ENCHANTING KITTEN (9/2)
10 – JULIA’S READY (8/1)
5 – THANKS BE ships in from an impressive win at Royal Ascot in June in the Sandringham Stakes and joins the powerful Chad Brown barn. The $114,300 Handicap had 27 runners and was by far her toughest test ever and she responded to take it all at 33-1. Most impressive is her comment line, “lacked room over 1f out, switched left, soon led, repulsed bid”.
7 – ZIP DRIVE won her second start at 5 ½ turf coming from sixth at Colonial. Her prior race at Tampa Bay, her debut, she led from the start at one mile but gave way in the drive. It is tempting to assume she can’t go this far, but that was her first start and she may not have been ready to go that far. Her sprint win came off a 5-month layoff. Arnaud Delacour is a 21% trainer this year and is 29% sprint to route. The fact that Velazquez takes the mount makes me think she might be able to get a mile with a patient ride from one of the best jockey’s ever who excels at rating front runners.
4 – ENCHANTING KITTEN won her debut in January 2017 but has lost her next 10 races. She has hit the board in 5 of those last 10 starts, second twice in her last 3 starts. Presence of Florent Geroux means might be able to hit the board again.
10 – JULIA’S READY is another “Reacher” type who has been third in 3 of her last 4 races. Comes from way out of it which keeps him from being a serious win candidate.