KEENELAND RACE 5 ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 10/18/2019

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KEENELAND RACE 5 ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 10/18/2019

RACE 5 – 5 ½ FURLONGS (TURF) – ALW 73,000 N1X

 5 – HIDDEN FACTS (4/1) is the kind of horse I don’t usually play, a last out Maiden winner. However, this is a Non-winner of 1 Allowance race which is written for horses like this. She went gate to wire, in fast time earning a strong Beyer setting good fractions. She has one other turf sprint at 7 ½ Furlongs at Gulfstream, where she had a huge lead and just failed to hold on by a neck. I will use her on top only in case she is able to use her big-time early speed to steal this.

3 – MY GALINA (9/2) set the pace in May at Belmont at 7 Furlongs on turf in the G3 Soaring Softy Stakes. Last out she dropped into a spot like today’s at today’s distance holding second after being passed by 2 other runners at the top of the stretch. She seems to need the lead to win so she will need to down the top horse to get the money.

10 – LEAD GUITAR (5/1) just broke her maiden last out gate to wire and owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the race. Problem is she has raced exclusively vs. New York-breds. The internal fractions of her races have been quick so until she proves she can’t handle open company or winners; I might use her on top as well. One of these early speedsters is going to shake loose and because she has been running vs. state-breds only, she should have her share of doubters and could be a decent price.

6 – CHELSEA CLOISTERS (8/1) finished last in a 100k stakes at Saratoga at this trip last out. That was 2 months ago. The Wesley Ward trainee has been an in-the-money machine in turf stakes but has lost 8 straight only winning her debut at 4 ½ Furlongs on dirt. She is an underneath bet only if you use her.

9 – ELLE’S TOWN (8/1) just finished second at Kentucky Downs in a similar spot at 6 ½ Furlongs on turf. She also runs on the front end which won’t help her here. She is another Reacher only candidate.

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