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KEENELAND RACE 3 ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 10/16/2019
RACE 3 – 7 FURLONGS – CLAIMING 25,000
8 – CP QUALITY (3/1)
5 – PAINT THE CORNERS (7/2)
6 – LUCY’S TOWN (7/2)
7 – GOOD MOVE (9/2)
2 – WORLD RIOT (8/1)
3 – AS FAST AS YOU CAN (8/1)
8 – CP QUALITY won her last race in a $50,000 Starter Allowance race at 6 Furlongs at Ellis Park, which only tells us she is sharp. The “Tell” of how she fits today at this class level was her win 3 races back when she won as she pleased vs. $30k-$25k types. Ellis Park is part of the Kentucky circuit, so there is no question whether she belongs here. Deserving favorite.
6 – LUCY’S TOWN shows 2 recent mile wins, but she is a much stronger sprinter winning 3 of 4 sprints between Feb-May of this year. She was third vs $25k at Churchill Downs and won at the 7 Furlong distance at Keeneland April 13. She will come from farther back than the top horse and will have to run that one down in the stretch.
7 – GOOD MOVE drops in from a $40k optional claiming where she has lost 6 straight races vs. much tougher than what she meets today. She has not been running poorly considering being overmatched. The key race for her came Feb 17 at Oaklawn when she ran down $30k-$25k claimers. She was claimed by Steve Assmussen in that race and drops back to this winning level today. Most Interesting is that the win came off a similar drop from $40k Optional Claiming. Very dangerous today.
These 3 stand out in here. Separating them is hard but the top horse has an early speed advantage and the other two will have to rally from mid-pack.
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