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KEENELAND KEY RACE ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 10/19/2019
RACE 3 – 6 FURLONGS – OPTIONAL CLAIMING $100K/N2X
3 – PERUVIAN APPEAL (3/1) just won in this exact context coming from last to first at Churchill Downs 3 weeks ago. Because she is no longer eligible without running for a claiming tag, she is in for $100,000 because her connections are serious about her chances to repeat. She won in this kind of race in May as well.
1 – INTO TROUBLE (5/1) comes out of the same race as the top horse where she was up close all the way, had a clear lead in mid-stretch and was run down late. Problem here is 10 straight losses. Contender always seems to find a way to get beat.
7 – ULTIMATE MO (5/1) third in the common race with the top 2. Could show more speed today since her last was off a 4-month layoff and will likely be tougher to down in the stretch second time out.
RACE 9 – 7 FURLONGS – RAVEN RUN (G2) $250,000
1 – ROYAL CHARLOTTE (3/1) is fresh from winning the G2 Prioress at Saratoga in August, win 5 in 6 career starts. Looks tough for Chad Brown even though not on the turf.
6 – RESTLESS RIDER (4/1) – is better known for her Route success in the G1 Alcibiades, G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the G1 Ashland. Buy she is a tough as nails sprinter as well winning her first 2 starts and finishing second in the G1 Spinaway at this distance in just her third start.
9 – HOROLOGIST (5/1) – has shown no graded success sprinting but just finished third in the G1 Cotillion at 1 1/16 and shortens up for the combo of Baltas-Bravo who won the G3 Valley View on Friday with Lady Prancealot. Not dismissing his chances at a price. Won 4 straight, twice at 1 mile before the Cotillion run.
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