FULL CARD VALUE PLAYS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SAT. 4-27 BY LIGHTNING JAY

[Lightning Jay]

<u>TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, April 27, 2019</u>

VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_

 

 

RACE 1

An evenly matched group of lower level maiden claimers go a distance of ground to kick off the opener on the penultimate Saturday card at Tampa.  No real standouts here and the logical horses should be bet.  For this reason, we must demand a solid price.

7 – Fountainstreetkid (4/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

5 – Las Ana (4/1) A ….. 12/1

8 – Box Candy (3/1) A ….. 9/1

6 – Lovechasingshadows (7/2) B ….. 15/1

4 – Person to Person (5/2) B ….. 10/1

 

RACE 2

The favorite looks stong and the main contenders should also be covered by the public, so we’ll remain patient and look for our price.

5 – Romantic Babe (8/5) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

2 – Justa Jill (3/1) B ….. 8/1

8 – Three Questions (6/1) B ….. 11/1

3 – Ashley’s Rose (5/2) B ….. 10/1

7 – Reina La Kelsy (20/1) C ….. 30/1

 

RACE 3

We have another solid favorite in the 2, but a horse with good numbers that peaks interest is the 3.  She’s every bit as fast as the 2 and last time at this level she won at Delaware.

2 – Fiore (9/5) A ….. Fair Value Odds 4/1

3 – Miss Krivoruchka (5/1) A ….. 7/1

4 – Dorothyfromdublin (3/1) B ….. 7/1

6 – Ghost Train (9/2) B ….. 9/1

 

RACE 4

Here we have what should be a nice betting race.  I’m against the favorite (Bridal Shower) who’s had 1 race since September of 2017.  Zoe My Love is a bit interesting as she makes her third start of the year, drops in class and tries turf.

8 – Zoe My Love (10/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 12/1

7 – Prospettiva d’Oro (3/1) A ….. 10/1

6 – U Know I B Lion (6/1) A ….. 9/1

5 – Bridal Shower (5/2) B ….. 10/1

3 – Wild Cat Grace (10/1) B ….. 17/1

2 – Treble In Paradise (20/1) C ….. 20/1

 

RACE 5

Not a great betting race as the favorites have run races that are just faster than everyone else.  That being the case, you must demand value or simply pass.

9 – El Soldador (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

3 – Call Me Handsome (5/2) A ….. 9/1

6 – Unbridled Piper (3/1) B ….. 11/1

2 – Magic Sparkle (9/2) B ….. 9/1

1 – Dawn Patrol (20/1) C ….. 35/1

 

RACE 6

Not much to see here folks.  High Five Cotton goes out for leading trainer Gerald Bennett and should be able to control things on the front end in a small field.  As you know by now, I don’t give out chalk and NEVER recommend betting heavy favorites as that’s the quickest way to burn through your bankroll.  This is a class hike so we must get our price.

6 – High Five Cotton (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2

5 – Chicory Blue (2/1) A ….. 5/1

4 – Zitman (4/1) B ….. 9/1

 

RACE 7

Music Maker takes the plunge into the claiming ranks and surely will be bet down.  I might be willing to take a price or 2 in this spot, but I wouldn’t recommend fishing too deep.  As far as multi-race wagers go, many will single here.  If you’re of the opinion that the 9 is vulnerable, by all means cast your net out into the deep!

9 – Music Maker (7/5) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

8 – J’s Twostep Beauty (10/1) A ….. 20/1

2 – Caspian Tale (5/1) B ….. 10/1

1 – Glovanna (7/2) B ….. 12/1

5 – Texas Dolly (30/1) C ….. 45/1

10 – Lemon Water (8/1) C ….. 25/1

4 – Mossy Chick (8/1) C ….. 25/1

 

RACE 8

A challenging maiden special weight event may offer a value play.  Not entirely sold on the favorite Rachel’s Wish as she’ll have to move forward to win.  Beantown Baby is well-bred and has an excellent work tab.  Gracely gained valuable experience in her debut and makes her 2^nd start after a layoff with a string of solid works for Michael Stidham.  True Atka appears to be moving forward in this her 3^rd start. 

3 – Gracely (4/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2

4 – Beantown Baby (6/1) A ….. 10/1

5 – Rachel’s Wish (2/1) A ….. 7/2

2 – True Atka (5/1) B ….. 15/1

7 – Lyonaisse (10/1) C ….. 35/1

 

RACE 9

A 5 furlong turf sprint closes out the card and it’s wide-open.  There’s room for drastic improvement from several horses that are making starts off layoffs.  Personally, I’ll tread lightly (maybe a recreational wager) as any result would not be a surprise.  The only way I’d feel comfortable in my multi-race wagers would be to hit the ALL button.

9 – One Lucky Step (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1

10 – Mast Cove (5/2) A ….. 15/1

4 – Epic Drama (7/2) B ….. 12/1

6 – Resident (30/1) C ….. 15/1

2 – K P Creed (10/1) C ….. 25/1

 

(All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions.  Follow me on Twitter for adjustments to the Fair Value Odds line after scratches.)

 

Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that <u>you like, that the public shouldn’t,</u> preferably running against flawed favorites.  If 1 or 2 runners of your choices meet the Fair Odds line, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas.  Horses are listed in preferential order.  More weight needs to be given to those at the top of the list when considering risk to reward.  If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing on the race.  Remember, betting every race (save for a recreational wager) is financial suicide!  <u>Wait for your price</u> and learn to develop a sense about the wager ‘feeling right’ before pulling the trigger.  Never feel pressured into betting a race.  There are plenty of races each day from which to choose from!  I’ve graded the horses A – C for those of you that prefer multi-race wagers and use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker to structure your bets.

 

BEST OF LUCK!

@LIGHTNINGJAY_

 

[Author]

Posts