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Home Forums Horse Racing Picks FULL CARD VALUE PLAYS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SAT. 4-20 BY LIGHTNING JAY

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    Lightning Jay
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    <u>TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, April 20, 2019</u>

    VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_

    Last week’s winners included:  Silver Duke $54.80; Bonsai Benny $31; $976.40 Early Pick 4; $22,447.75 Late Pick 4!

    (All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions.  Follow me on Twitter for adjustments to the Fair Value Odds line after scratches.)

     

    Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that <u>you like, that the public shouldn’t,</u> preferably running against flawed favorites.  If 1 or 2 runners of your choices meet the Fair Odds line, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas.  Horses are listed in preferential order.  More weight needs to be given to those at the top of the list when considering risk to reward.  If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing on the race.  Remember, betting every race (save for a recreational wager) is financial suicide!  <u>Wait for your price</u> and learn to develop a sense about the wager ‘feeling right’ before pulling the trigger.  Never feel pressured into betting a race.  There are plenty of races each day from which to choose from!  I’ve graded the horses A – C for those of you that prefer multi-race wagers and use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker to structure your bets.

     

    RACE 1

    A small field of sprinting 3yo maiden fillies kicks off the card and the public should have this one right.  Not the type of race where we can expect value.  The first-time starter shows only a work in Jan. and one in Mar.  The 3 would have to improve dramatically in her first start of the year for new connections that are winning at 4%.

    5 – Isabellita (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/2

    4 – War Star (2/1) A ….. 3/1

    1 – Buywon Getwon (4/1) B ….. 15/1

    6 – Sheflew (3/1) B ….. 12/1

     

    RACE 2

    This is the type of race where you could make a case for all 6 runners.  The 5 appears to be the speed of the speed, but the track profile for this class and level has played more to stalkers the last few weeks.  Not sure if either one of the first-time starters are fully cranked for this but give respect to the O’Connell barn in these situations.  Stay patient and wait for your price. You’ll have to go deep if playing multi-races sequences.

    4 – Secret Boyfriend (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

    5 – Flying Bankroll (5/2) A ….. 6/1

    6 – Pemaquid Pete (9/2) B ….. 9/1

    3 – Dutchess Caroline (3/1) B ….. 10/1

    1 – Big Cheese (6/1) B ….. 15/1

     

    RACE 3

    The field is a combined 10 for 115 in the last 2 years.  Needless to say there are no killers in here.  Therefore, you must demand value.

    2 – Great Plan (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

    1 – Regal Force (3/1) A ….. 7/1

    4 – Smart But Foolish (9/2) B ….. 7/1

    7 – Miss Rickles (4/1) B ….. 10/1

     

    RACE 4

    At even money the O’Connell trained 6-King Daddio is a horse I’d hesitate to single as he’s showing the signs of a money burner.  There should be pace pressure from the rail, and the 5-Indio Picaro is worth a look.  Getting one of our B or C’s home will justify the outlay of your multi-race tickets.

    6 – King Daddio (Even) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/2

    3 – Community Court (3/1) A ….. 5/1

    5 – Indio Picaro (8/1) B ….. 15/1

    1 – Run Spot Run (4/1) C ….. 10/1

    7 – Cheer the Boss (20/1) C ….. 35/1

     

    RACE 5 

    We end the early Pick 5 and start the late sequence with a solid single in Real Fast Music.  In a race where the early pace projects to be unpressured, Gallardo and O’Connell team up with a class dropper who should be able to dictate things from the front end.  It’s doubtful we’ll find value as far as win bets are concerned, but a key race in both Pick 5’s.

    5 – Real Fast Music (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 4/1

    2 – El Grande Rojo (6/1) B ….. 9/1

    1 – Wanna Salsa (4/1) B ….. 11/1

    7 – Wild Wigglin Jack (7/2) C ….. 20/1

     

    RACE 6

    Only 2 horses project any early speed (the 4 and the 8) which could make for a bit of a merry-go-round race.  The 8 should be able to stalk and will be tough to run down.  It’s interesting to note though that Spieth opts to ride the 2 over the 8.  We’ll give ourselves a chance to find a price by including the best stalkers/closers and demand our price.

    8 – Iron Shadow (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

    6 – Soldat’s Storm (9/5) A ….. 5/1

    7 – Cat Prado (3/1) A ….. 10/1

    2 – Swingstage (5/1) B ….. 25/1

    3 – Lefty Comming (8/1) B ….. 35/1

     

    RACE 7

    This is a fair betting race with plenty of opportunities to find value.  The morning line favorites are solid, but there are no standouts. 

    8 – Parrkaveli (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

    1 – Fog Warning (7/2) A ….. 7/1

    6 – J’s Flashy Halo (4/1) B ….. 11/1

    7 – Bode Jack (9/2) B ….. 16/1

    9 – Sweet Tea Jack (6/1) C ….. 20/1

    2 – Mikado (8/1) C ….. 20/1

    5 – Mulled Wine (15/1) C ….. 20/1

     

    RACE 8

    An ugly maiden race if I’ve ever seen one.  If the 1 should regress after that first start in nearly 4 years, the race is wide open.  Trying to read between the bad form lines, looking to find a winner leaves a lot of guess work.  I’ll leave that for others.  We don’t have to guess.  Just using a solid fair value odds line to determine value can lead to a nice score.  In a race like this, it’s possible and reasonable to bet more than one value horse to win along with your exactas.

    1 – Ineedityesterday (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

    4 – Fan’s Worrier (10/1) A ….. 20/1

    7 – Boy Scout (9/2) A ….. 11/1

    9 – Sweetest Boy (8/1) B ….. 25/1

    11 – Person to Person (3/1) B ….. 11/1

    3 – Warhavoc (10/1) C ….. 25/1

    10 – Look Up (4/1) C ….. 15/1

    2 – Dancer’s Kin (15/1) C ….. 35/1

     

    RACE 9

    Another field of maidens with just terrible form closes out the card.  Toki, the morning line favorite, has hung in nearly every race.  A race like this might be hard to handicap traditionally, but as a value capper, I see opportunity.  Remember to look for horses you like that the public shouldn’t.  (That usually means looking past their last race!)  All the better if they’re running against vulnerable favorites.  Then, wait for your price and learn to develop a heart sense about when it feels right to pull the trigger!

    12 – Ballie’s Dream (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1

    6 – Toki (5/2) A ….. 10/1

    2 – Juanandora (3/1) A ….. 11/1

    10 – Sexy Morena (30/1) B ….. 15/1

    1 – Elithium (20/1) C ….. 20/1

    5 – Soldette (15/1) C ….. 15/1

    7 – Whinnying Ways (15/1) C ….. 30/1

    3 – Claire Is Danger (20/1) C ….. 30/1

     

    Best of Luck!

    @LightningJay_

     

     

     

     

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