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Home Forums Horse Racing Picks FULL CARD VALUE PLAYS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SAT. 4-13 BY LIGHTNING JAY

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    Lightning Jay
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    <u>TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, April 13, 2019</u>

    VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_

    Last week, I gave out the early Pick 5 for over $1,600!

    (All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions.  Follow me on Twitter for adjustments to the Fair Value Odds line after scratches.)

     

    Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that <u>you like, that the public shouldn’t,</u> preferably running against flawed favorites.  If 1 or 2 runners of your choices meet the Fair Odds line, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas.  Horses are listed in preferential order.  More weight needs to be given to those at the top of the list when considering risk to reward.  If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing on the race.  Remember, betting every race (save for a recreational wager) is financial suicide!  <u>Wait for your price</u> and learn to develop a sense about the wager ‘feeling right’ before pulling the trigger.  Never feel pressured into betting a race.  There are plenty of races each day from which to choose from!  I’ve graded the horses A – C for those of you that prefer multi-race wagers and use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker to structure your bets. 

     

    RACE 1

    Only one horse presents a clear value opportunity in the opener, and that would be the 4.  With a couple of strong favorites that have no visible flaws, I’d tread lightly here when trying to beat them.

    2 – Evolution (9/5) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

    3 – Big Awesome (8/5) A ….. 9/2

    6 – Go To Win (3/1) B ….. 7/1

    4 – King Dude of Ocala (15/1) C ….. 12/1

     

    RACE 2

    A small field but not easy to get a read on this race.  The pace could be pressured, but the track profile for these sprints plays a bit more off the pace.  We’ll give ourselves an opportunity to find value among the contenders but be cautious in your approach.

    6 – R True Sensation (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

    1 – Cool Iris (3/1) A ….. 8/1

    2 – U Know I B Lion (15/1) A ….. 9/2

     

    5 – Poppy’s Jewel (4/1) B ….. 11/1

     

    RACE 3

    Turf events usually present great opportunities at value, but that’s not the case here.  It looks to me that the contenders come from among the favorites.  As always, we’ll use our odds line to determine if there’s any value.

    2 – First Reward (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2

    4 – Pirate Beach (2/1) A ….. 7/1

    8 – Trumpi (5/2) A ….. 8/1

    1 – Spectacular Plum (5/1) B ….. 15/1

     

    RACE 4

    Another race that can be difficult to get a read on if you’re simply trying to pick a winner.  The beauty and lack of stress when value capping allows us to look and see if we’re getting the proper  value on any of our contenders.

    7 – Lady Brexit (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2

    5 – Tempers Way (5/2) A ….. 8/1

    3 – Marynmike (5/1) B ….. 11/1

    2 – Feets of Feather (8/1) B ….. 12/1

    4 – Lemon Gal (10/1) B ….. 11/1

    1 – Shedancesforfate (15/1) C ….. 45/1

     

    RACE 5

    Contentious group of sprinting fillies may provide us with a value play.  The morning line favorite Suzie’ssteppinout draws the outside post, and is a late runner going against the track profile for this distance and class.  Note that the pace does not project to be pressured, so this race has value potential!

    5 – Super Twenty Five (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

    1 – Fat N Bitter (8/1) A ….. 6/1

    2 – Konza Kandy (9/2) B ….. 14/1

    4 – Luna Fortis (4/1) B ….. 12/1

    7 – Suzzie’ssteppinout (3/1) C ….. 12/1

    6 – Scowling Ridge (6/1) C ….. 14/1

     

    RACE 6

    Here’s a race where you could make a legitimate case for all the starters.  For that reason, I’ll give Fair Value Odds for the field.  With that said, remember to give more weight to the horses at the top of the list.  It’s also perfectly fine to play 2 horses to win, provided the price is right.

    2 – Red Curls (5/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

    1 – Itsagimme’s Girl (3/1) A ….. 12/1

    3 – Architect (10/1) A ….. 15/1

    4 – Sweet Moochie (12/1) B ….. 15/1

    8 – Luna (7/2) B ….. 12/1

    5 – Monkey Mind (4/1) C ….. 20/1

    7 – Beach Dreaming (10/1) C ….. 25/1

    6 – Warrior’s Way (9/2) C ….. 25/1

     

    RACE 7

    This low-level extended sprint is as wide-open as they come.  The late multi-race sequences require a decent bankroll (if you’re so inclined), but the return should justify the means.  Personally, I think a sounder strategy is a race by race value play that includes exacta key-boxing.

    10 Peas and Carrots (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

    1 – Don’t Tap and Tell (6/1) B ….. 9/1

    2 – Persistent Run (7/2) B ….. 9/1

    8 – Money Broker (9/2) C ….. 9/1

    9 – Silver Duke (20/1) C ….. 20/1

    3 – Bartletts Mark (5/1) C ….. 20/1

     

    RACE 8

    The two favorites are very strong so I wouldn’t fish too deep trying to beat them.  But as always, if we get our price, we’ll play accordingly or pass if we don’t!

    8 – Dover Cliffs (7/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

    7 – Harv Won’t Tap (3/1) A ….. 8/1

    4 – Don’task Don’ttell (10/1) B ….. 9/1

    1 – Zefiro (6/1) C ….. 30/1

    6 – City Play (10/1) C ….. 25/1

     

    RACE 9

    The inside bias is big when analyzing the track profile for this class and distance at Tampa.  I see nothing of interest from the first-time starters but check the board for clues. 

     

    1 – Lets Dance Some Mo (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/1

    4 – Bonsai Benny (8/1) A ….. 10/1

    7 – Captured Beauty (9/2) B ….. 8/1

    5 – Mesange (3/1) B ….. 10/1

    8 – Fields Apart (15/1) C ….. 40/1

     

    BEST OF LUCK!

    @LightningJay_

     

     

     

     

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