FULL CARD VALUE PLAYS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SAT. 3-30 BY LIGHTNING JAY

[Lightning Jay]

<u>TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, March 30, 2019</u>

VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_

 

(All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions.  Follow me on Twitter for adjustments to the Fair Value Odds line after scratches.)

 

Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that <u>you like, that the public shouldn’t,</u> preferably running against flawed favorites.  If 1 or 2 runners of your choices meet the Fair Odds line, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas.  Horses are listed in preferential order.  More weight needs to be given to those at the top of the list when considering risk to reward.  If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing on the race.  Remember, betting every race (save for a recreational wager) is financial suicide!  <u>Wait for your price</u> and learn to develop a sense about the wager ‘feeling right’ before pulling the trigger.  Never feel pressured into betting a race.  There are plenty of races each day from which to choose from!  I’ve graded the horses A – C for those of you that prefer multi-race wagers and use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker to structure your bets.

 

RACE 1

A small field sprinting in the opener benefits inside speed here at Tampa. 

1 – Kipper Doodle (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

4 – Milbra (7/2) A ….. 5/1

5 – Luna Azteca (2/1) A ….. 6/1

 

RACE 2

Should be a solid pace and Petrocelli figures to have company in setting it.  Out of the horses that are dropping in class, the one that presents the biggest question marks would be Darwish, who goes for low percentage connections off a recent claim.

1 – Big Awesome (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 10/1

2 – Evolution (4/1) A ….. 12/1

6 – Petrocelli (9/2) B ….. 10/1

5 – Polygram (6/1) B ….. 9/1

7 – Strategic Ekati (5/1) C ….. 15/1

 

RACE 3

Another compact field with a compelling favorite in Tiger Blood.  Interesting that Camacho is not aboard.

2 – Tiger Blood (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

3 – Tizk Tizk (4/1) B ….. 6/1

4 – Divine Ambition (4/1) B ….. 6/1

1 – Doodle Hopper (7/2) C ….. 13/1

 

RACE 4

Not much pace signed on for this route, so you’ll want to be on or near the lead.  The Bennett horse interests me at the price as her last race could foreshadow a move forward here.

7 – Classical Lady (5/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/1

3 – Slide A Bit (7/2) A ….. 8/1

2 – Bearing Secrets (4/1) A ….. 8/1

5 – Mrs. Met (6/1) B ….. 10/1

4 – Quack Quack (3/1) B ….. 11/1

 

RACE 5

We may be able to find some value in this turf event as the morning line favorite is coming off a long layoff and the early pace figures to be lively.

7 – Union Ranks (5/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

4 – Pudding (6/1) A ….. 8/1

3 – Zefiro (7/2) B ….. 11/1

6 – Cheyenne’s Colonel (6/1) C ….. 17/1

2 – Vouch (2/1) C ….. 14/1

 

RACE 6

A wide-open turf event in which I have no solid opinion.  But that’s fine as we are Value Capping not handicapping!  Wait for your price!

2 – Jupiter Rising (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

7 – Delta Levy (3/1) A ….. 11/1

3 – Chilling Secret (5/2) A ….. 16/1

4 – Art of the Dream (7/2) B ….. 14/1

8 – Transitive (8/1) B ….. 15/1

9 – Fox Strike (10/1) C ….. 30/1

 

RACE 7

Another race that looks wide-open so the opportunity for value is there.

8 – Reeder (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1

1 – Little Toe (9/2) A ….. 14/1

3 – Spring Up (6/1) A ….. 10/1

9 – Nick the Cardshark (7/2) B ….. 13/1

2 – Metallic (8/1) B ….. 14/1

5 – El Grande Rojo (6/1) B ….. 20/1

 

RACE 8

A large field of maidens on the turf makes for a great betting race.  I’ve only included 3 of the first- time starters based on pedigree and workouts, so I personally would need a very large price to consider the other 2.  It’s always recommended to check out these young horses in the walking ring for any obvious clues.

6 – Hard Count (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

10 – Crypto Gold (3/1) A ….. 7/1

12 – Journeyman (4/1) A ….. 8/1

8 – Maduro (20/1) B …..16/1

5 – Piccadilly Beau (15/1) B ….. 16/1

9 – Gentleman Joe (15/1) B ….. 16/1

7 – Dry Lake (12/1) C ….. 25/1

 

RACE 9

Not much speed in this 7 furlong maiden sprint and nothing of interest for me in the 2 firsters.  Play the Max was right with the hot pace set in her debut and earned the best early pace figure of this group.  Top trainer Bennett can be trusted to have her ready and she’s a possible single in your multi-race wagers.  But as always, let the board determine your wagers!

7 – Play the Max (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 4/1

6 – Shessuchaknockout (5/2) B ….. 8/1

8 – True Atka (15/1) B ….. 20/1

9 – Lemon Gal (8/1) B ….. 10/1

2 – Quiet Pirate (5/1) C ….. 20/1

1 – Don’t Fight It (10/1) C ….. 30/1

 

RACE 10

Nice little turf claimer to close out the day.  In all honesty, one of the weaker Saturday cards for Tampa with small fields for the most part.  The opportunity for value will be there.  You’ll need to stay patient.  But if you do and stick around for the finale, you might get rewarded with a bit of a price to end your day.

2 – Babie Monster (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

3 – Sun of Tara (7/2) A …. 9/1

5 – Clouded Appeal (30/1) B ….. 8/1

1 – Straight Up Smarty (2/1) B ….. 12/1

8 – Speeding Starlet (5/2) B ….. 14/1

Best of Luck!

@LightningJay_

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