FULL CARD VALUE PLAYS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SAT. 3-23 BY LIGHTNING JAY!

[Lightning Jay]

<u>TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, March 23, 2019</u>

VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_

 

(All selections are made for FAST and FIRM conditions.  Following scratches, adjust the Fair Value Odds slightly lower.)

 

Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the <u>art</u> of selecting horses that YOU like, <u>that the public shouldn’t,</u> (preferably running against flawed favorites).  If one or 2 runners meet the Fair Value Odds line, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas.  Horses are listed in preferential order.  More weight is given to those at or near the top then those near the bottom when considering wagering.  If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing the race.  Remember, betting every race (except for a recreational wager) is financial suicide!  Wait for your price and learn to develop a heart sense about it ‘feeling right’ before pulling the trigger.  Never be pressured to make a wager, there’s plenty of races each day to choose from!  I’ve graded the horses I like A – C for those of you that prefer to use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker to structure your multi-race wagers.

 

RACE 1

The early pace appears pressured, yet speed (& particularly inside speed) plays well at Tampa.  I’m looking for horses with speed that can stalk within a couple of lengths of the lead.

5 – R Sweet Exchange (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

1 – Princess Jules (4/1) A ….. 6/1

2 – Trappe Me Later (2/1) A ….. 6/1 

 

RACE 2

Contentious maiden claimer on the turf may offer us value.  Speed on the turf is dangerous, and the 8 on the stretch out could go a long way.  The 3 and the 6 have strong early speed figures so that could set things up for another stalking type.

2 – Soldier in Pink (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1

8 – Secret Affirmation (10/1) A ….. 8/1

1 – Lady Brexit (7/2) B ….. 6/1

5 – Sundrenched (2/1) B ….. 6/1

4 – Painted Image (6/1) B ….. 8/1

 

RACE 3

The horses with the best early speed figures are coming off taxing efforts.  Some are facing winners for the first time.  Mix in a couple of class droppers and you have a very difficult race to handicap traditionally.  Since we are Value Capping, we can search for our price among the contenders.

5 – Fat N Bitter (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/1

7 – R True Sensation (3/1) A ….. 14/1

6 – Bluski (6/1) A ….. 18/1

4 – Winter’s Grace (10/1) B ….. 15/1

3 – Cool Iris (7/2) C ….. 13/1

2 – Hand Rail (4/1) C ….. 15/1

 

RACE 4

No one in here shows me that they want to go this far.  Many are trying the turf in a last-ditch effort to wake up their form.  The 6 appears logical, and will certainly be bet, but has the look of a ‘hanger’ which opens the race up for value.

1 – Rock the Causeway (4/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1

6 – Candy Kingdom (2/1) A ….. 9/2

3 – Mysurewinwilliams (10/1) B ….. 15/1

2 – Unflappable Max (10/1) B ….. 15/1

7 – Peppermint Crunch (6/1) C ….. 35/1

10 – Macgyver K C (6/1) C ….. 30/1

 

RACE 5

If you’re not sold on the favorite (and I’m not) the race presents you with a plethora of value opportunities.  From the rail, there’s no doubt Gallardo will send Memorable Angel.  She figured to improve in her 2^nd start but that was a very hard effort which makes her a candidate to regress today.

1 – Memorable Angel (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 10/1

4 – Pigeon Creek (6/1) A ….. 12/1

2 – Legacy to Gold (3/1) A … 10/1

10 – Caramel Moon (10/1) B ….. 35/1

8 – La Pichu (8/1) B ….. 12/1

3 – Toki (10/1) C ….. 20/1

 

RACE 6

Many of these in the filly and mare division of this marathon turf handicap have similar running styles.  It becomes a rider’s race at this point so be sure to wait for your price.

6 – Aquemini (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1

4 – Irony of Reality (6/1) A ….. 8/1

8 – Nick’s Rose (7/2) A ….. 8/1

2 – Lemon Zip (10/1) B ….. 10/1

1 – Imaginable (4/1) B ….. 13/1

 

RACE 7

The early pace projects to be solid with the speed of the speed drawing post 11 while having to deal with the 2 and the 3.  Plenty of horses dropping in class that have solid late pace figures.  Many contenders provide us with great wagering possibilities!

8 – Homer (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1

7 – Road to Damascus (3/1) A ….. 9/1

11 – Money Broker (6/1) B ….. 25/1

4 – Clifden (12/1) B ….. 20/1

2 – El Mayito (6/1) C ….. 25/1

10 – Gray’s Image (8/1) C ….. 40/1

6 – Don’t Tap and Tell (12/1) C ….. 45/1

 

RACE 8

Once again, we’re presented with quite the puzzle to handicap.  Perfect!  With a vulnerable favorite, we can wait for our price amongst an expanded group of contenders.

1 – Lemon Princess (6/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 15/1

9 – Elusive Truth (7/2) A ….. 7/1

7 – Sweet Daddio (8/1) B ….. 9/1

5 – Monkey Mind (4/1) B ….. 10/1

11 – Summer Blossom (8/1) B ….. 15/1

2 – Moon Dash (3/1) C ….. 25/1

6 – Warrior’s Way (8/1) C ….. 30/1

 

RACE 9

Another great betting race!  The boys take their turn going 1 3/8 miles over the turf and again the favorite (10) looks compromised.  He won’t get an easy lead as the 1 under Camacho has better early pace figures and should be able to control things upfront. 

1 – Gorgeous Kitten (6/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1

5 – Marksman (9/2) A ….. 15/1

9 – Imposing Will (20/1) B ….. 10/1

10 – Nigel’s Destiny (5/2) B ….. 12/1

7 – Whiskey Train (5/1) B ….. 17/1

4 – The Curt Fox (GB) (20/1 C ….. 20/1

2 – Gray Dude (6/1) C ….. 25/1

 

RACE 10

The finale screams for a 1^st time starter to step up and win, but there’s not much that stands out on works or pedigree.  For my part, I will likely pass on this race as there are too many unknown variables.  If you must play, look for the early money and check their appearance in the walking ring.  As always, wait for your price!

5 – Smokin Princess (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/1

3 – Tizaawesomeday (8/1) A ….. 16/1

9 – Feats of Feather (6/1) A ….. 18/1

2 – Don’t Spin Me (9/2) A ….. 15/1

4 – Captured Beauty (8/1) C ….. 35/1

1 – Wiwi Celebration (15/1) C …..35/1

10 – War Star (12/1) B ….. 40/1

7 – Won Lil Indian (8/1) C ….. 50/1

8 – J’s Three Step Halo (10/1) C ….. 75/1

 

BEST OF LUCK!

@LightningJay_

 

 

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