FULL CARD VALUE PLAYS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SAT. 3-16 BY LIGHTNING JAY

[Lightning Jay]

TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, March 16, 2019
VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_

(All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions. Following scratches, adjust the Fair Value Odds downward.)

Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that you like, that the public shouldn’t, preferably running against flawed favorites. If one or 2 runners meet the Fair Value Odds, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas. If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing the race.

RACE 1
A couple of logical choices to open the card at Tampa. 6 – Great Harbour Cay moves to another high percentage barn, turns back in distance and drops in class. 3 – Petrocelli just ran his best speed figure in quite a while. The pace should have some pressure, & at 9 years old, he’s a candidate to regress somewhat. I’ve graded the contenders A – C for those of you that prefer to use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker on your multi-race wagers.
6 – Great Harbour Cay (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 11/1
3 – Petrocelli (7/2) A ….. 8/1
5 – Wild Scat Blue (9/2) B ….. 9/1
7 – Polygram (4/1) B ….. 8/1
2 – The Wayne Factor (6/1) C ….. 10/1
1 – Jersey Street (4/1) C ….. 17/1

RACE 2
3 – Pure Blarney appears to be the speed of the speed with Camacho and an inside draw. Though the pace should be pressured, the only contender from off the pace I’m considering is the 2.
3 – Pure Blarney (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/1
6 – Luna Azteca (2/1) A ….. 5/1
7 – Milbra (5/2) B ….. 6/1
2 – Romancin N Dancin (8/1) C ….. 20/1

RACE 3
5 – Phyllis Driller drops in class so look for Allen to control things on the front end. His race to lose. 7 – Bearing Secrets seems to have figured things out and will likely be the late threat.
5 – Phyllis Driller (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2
3 – Alexbabe (4/1) B ….. 13/1
7 – Bearing Secrets (9/2) B ….. 15/1
1 – Mrs. Met (7/2) C ….. 12/1
4 – American Halo (6/1) C …..13/1

RACE 4
A low-level 7 furlong maiden claimer that could produce any sort of result. That said, this looks like a great betting race! Be sure to hunt for your price(s). It’s these kinds of races where you can find one or two horses to key-box in exactas with the field for a tidy score.
6 – Hero Tiger (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1
2 – Enduring Arch (3/1) A ….. 13/1
1 – Boy Scout (5/1) A ….. 15/1
3 – White Sock Wolf (6/1) B ….. 11/1
5 – Brilliant Boy (4/1) B ….. 15/1
9 – Rattlesnake Face (15/1) C ….. 50/1

RACE 5
Wide-open maiden claimer on the turf has value potential. The favorite 4 – Anditsafact is Camacho’s choice of 3 but she hasn’t raced since Jan. 27, so there are question marks which could open things up for a price.
4 – Anditsafact (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 12/1
2 – Beta Test (3/1) A ….. 9/1
9 – Northern Heart (8/1) A ….. 11/1
11 – Lemon Water (8/1) B ….. 12/1
5 – Gracelet (30/1) C ….. 30/1
3 – Legacy Park (4/1) C ….. 20/1

RACE 6
Not sure of the quality in this Maiden Special. Out of the first-time starters, I’m interested in 3 – Homeland Mesa. Checks a lot of boxes. Solid breeding, connections and work tab. I am against the 6 – Mission Statement with Camacho. No works past 4 furlongs, not the best work pattern and hasn’t gone since Feb.15. If he beats me, so be it. (I would need 25/1 or better for me to consider.)
3 – Homeland Mesa (6/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 11/1
5 – The Big S (4/1) A ….. 5/1
2 – Laughing Bobby (5/2) B ….. 7/1
4 – Outrider (8/1) B ….. 12/1
8 – Secret Path (5/1) C ….. 11/1
7 – Pemaquid Pete (12/1) C ….. 10/1

RACE 7
Absolutely nothing stands out in this maiden claimer on the turf. That’s o.k. The beauty of Value Capping is that you are very likely to find your price(s) among an expanded list of contenders!
8 – Showboating (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1
3 – Regal Embrace (5/2) A …..6/1
10 – Captured Beauty (7/2) B ….. 10/1
5 – Respondingtoglobal (6/1) B ….. 14/1
2 – Action Absolute Ds (8/1) B ….. 11/1
11 – Buddy’s Babe (12/1) B …..12/1

RACE 8
Very competitive group, most with similar late-running styles and pace numbers. For that reason, you must demand value.
8 – Princess Livia (9/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 10/1
2 – Shimmyshimmyshake (8/1) A ….. 10/1
5 – Suzie’ssteppinout (5/2) A ….. 10/1
9 – Turko Treat (7/2) B ….. 13/1
3 – Whateverusaydear (6/1) B ….. 20/1
6 – Take Me Home (8/1) C ….. 17/1

RACE 9
Do they get anymore wide-open than this 5 furlong turf sprint? Trying to narrow it down by traditional handicapping techniques can leave you scratching your head, spreading too deep, or just passing on the race. By Value Capping, I’ve narrowed the field down somewhat and now we just stay disciplined and wait for our price(s).
9 – Faction Cat (9/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 10/1
4 – My Boy Lenny (6/1) A ….. 14/1
6 – Sindarius (7/2) A ….. 10/1
8 – Scat Cat Gravy (20/1) B ….. 20/1
5 – My Chinumado (30/1) C ….. 15/1
10 – Stone Carver (30/1) C ….. 19/1
2 – Welovecandy (4/1) C ….. 25/1

RACE 10
With so many first-time starters, you need to see the horses as they enter walking ring and what type of appearance they make on the track. Checking the early money is another factor when making any decisions. Personally, I recommend passing on this race with so many unknown variables. Plus, there’s nothing that stands out in the way of their works. But I will give a Fair Value Odds line and should a horse or 2 look good physically and take some early action (while meeting my odds), I’ll consider a recreational play.
2 – Western Reasons (8/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 12/1
4 – Top Mission (8/1) A ….. 12/1
7 – Brownstoneprincess (4/1) A ….. 12/1
3 – Willthisshipsail (7/2) B ….. 15/1
11 – Madame Evil (12/1) C ….. 35/1
8 – Takeanotherchance (8/1) C ….. 50/1
10 – Sassy Miss Margie (9/2) C ….. 50/1
The 9, 1 & 12 are all Fair Value at 99/1

Best of Luck!
@LightningJay_

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