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    • #29788
      Lightning Jay
      • 9 Total Posts
      Rank: Weanling

      TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, March 2, 2019
      Selections & Analysis by @Lightningjay_

      (All selections made for FAST and FIRM.)

      RACE 1
      3 – LADY SCHOLAR (4/1)
      5 – AVENTINE HILL (2/1)
      1 – FIRST HOOSIER (5/2)
      2 – CLASSICAL LADY (9/2)
      With all eyes on Gulfstream Park, let’s see if we can make a little money at the other Florida track. Tricky little race to open the card and I’m going 4-deep in the Pick 5 as nothing stands out. If you can get (5/1) or better on any of these, I would consider a win bet. The 3 is a bit interesting in that she makes her 3rd start in her form cycle, comes off the turf and drops in class. The 5 is a classic ‘hanger’ and not the type I place any confidence in.

      RACE 2
      5 – THE STIFLER (8/5)
      Ran the best race of his career under the care of Kathleen O’Connell (24%) which comes as no surprise. Has the best early speed figures in the group and is more than capable of sustaining that speed (as evidenced by that last race.) I will single this one in my multi-race wagers. Others to consider underneath are the 6, 4 & 2. (The drop in class by the 6 is a negative for me, coming off a hard race that followed a layoff. Even though the connections are solid, a bounce is possible.)

      RACE 3
      1 – ASHLIE NICOLE (5/2)
      6 – HEATHER HILLS (9/5)
      4 – RAPID RIVER (9/2)
      Drops to her lowest level after an encouraging return from a layoff. Blinkers come off in her 2nd start at Tampa and Gallardo rides back. The 6 is logical on the drop from Maiden Specials and Garcia chooses over the 7. I’m sure the 4 will be an underlay with Camacho aboard, but the workout pattern is erratic. It’s not what you want when considering a firster at a relatively short price. Too many gaps with over a month between the last 2 works. Plenty of question marks, but one I will include nonetheless in my multi-race wagers as a hedge against a questionable group.

      RACE 4
      4 – SUZIE’SSTEPPINOUT (2/1)
      7 – R TRUE SENSATION (9/2)
      6 – SUPER TWENTY FIVE (3/1)
      3 – PIPPAS POPPY (6/1)
      Many of these are stepping up after breaking their maiden so it’s difficult to tell which one(s) will move forward. For this reason, I suggest going 4-deep in your multi-race wagers and look for the best value if considering win bets. The 7 is a bit interesting as he could be the speed of the speed. Going from Baxter to Nations and the a.m. moves are quick. At (10/1) I would play to win.

      RACE 5
      2 – BODE JACK (2/1)
      3 – CADES COVE LOOP (6/1)
      10 – HERO TIGER (4/1)
      4 – GALLANT CAUSE (5/1)
      This is a wide-open race where I have no strong opinion. But I do think you can narrow it down to these four and move on. If any were to offer (10/1) or better, I would consider a win bet.

      RACE 6
      1 – CAMMACK (6/1)
      2 – CAN’THELPBELIEVING (IRE) (5/2)
      7 – SHANA TOVA (4/1)
      Very nice little race. Beware! The Illinois-bred is back in the barn of Chris Block and should be sharper 2nd off the layoff. Block gets Lopez to complete the reunion. Turning 9 does present the question whether he’s able to move forward at this stage. All things considered, I will play to win at his morning line or higher. The 7 is one to keep an eye on. Well-bred, lightly raced 4yo is 2-2 over the Tampa turf, both with Camacho. One I didn’t mention that you might consider is the 5 based on the fact he’s consistently faced better. Asmussen no longer trains so read into that what you will.

      RACE 7
      8 – NICK THE CARDSHARK (7/2)
      2 – TIGER BLOOD (5/2)
      4 – HIGHLAND PARK HERO (9/2)
      7 – POLISHED STEEL (6/1)
      Will the 2 & 7 hook up again setting things up for a possible price to close late? There’s other speed in the race so it would be wise to spread in this leg of your multi-race wagers. The 8 looks to be the stalker from that outside post and has the perfect rider for that type of effort in Gallardo. If the race totally falls apart, the 3 would not be out of the question.

      RACE 8
      7 – SWEET DADDIO (15/1)
      9 – GOIABA (7/2)
      3 – UMETUKA (4/1)
      6 – INITIATE (5/2)
      As is the case in most of these turf races, you’re going to need coverage. The 7 is an interesting longshot and one I will play to win & key-box in exactas provided she doesn’t drop below (10/1). Speed and turf in her pedigree. As mentioned before, speed can be dangerous on the Tampa turf. She may wire them at a price. Camacho chose the 9 over Shug’s horse (6) who is a chronic hanger and will likely be an underlay.

      RACE 9
      5 – VEITY (6/1)
      1 – TAKE THE OVER (2/1)
      6 – SWEETHEART LADY (10/1)
      9 – SHE WANTS MORE (5/1)
      8 – BLUSKI (4/1)
      3 – RED BLONDE (12/1)
      In a race like this, you either single the favorite (1) or go as deep as you can. The time to bet the 1 was last time and she disappointed at .80 to the dollar. She’s a money-burner so I need to go elsewhere. The 5 drops in class again after beating half the field last time when facing claimers. I would still need at least (15/1) for enough value to play to win. Nothing stands out among the firsters, but if you’re going deep, you need to use at least 2 of the 3 since one tends to pop in these lower level maiden events. I suggest getting a good look at them in the paddock.

      RACE 10
      7 – DOVER CLIFFS (3/1)
      10 – TIZK TIZK (8/1)
      2 – BIRDSNEST PARTY (5/2)
      4 – POSTINO’S VOW (15/1)
      There’s plenty of early pace on paper which would normally set things up for a closer, (especially on turf.) But the top 3 choices all have strong late pace numbers so the one that gets the trip is likely to get up. The 4 is interesting as he may be rounding into form and a longshot that merits consideration is the 1. Off the layoff the works are sporadic so he may need a race or 2. But those closing efforts in Chicago when sprinting are impressive enough when considering the moderate pace.

      Best of Luck!

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