CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 11/4/2020

[consensus Choice]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 11/4/2020

EARLY SPEED (E/S) AND CLOSERS (C) ANALYSIS ONLY INCLUDE HORSES THAT ARE MORNING LINE CONTENDERS (8/1 OR LESS). LONGSHOTS (10/1 OR HIGHER) ARE LISTED UNDER LS.

RACE 1

E/S – TOP SPEED IS TRACI’S GREELEY 5/2 AND SHOULD BE TOUGH TO CATCH AS SHE HAS NO SERIOUS OPPOSITION EARLY.

C – TOP CLOSER IS GRATS ROAD 3/1 BUT HER RATING IS ONLY AVERAGE.

LS – SHE WANTS MORE 15/1 IS HORSE MOST LIKELY TO BE PRESSURING EARLY LEADER AS SHE IS MUCH FASTER EARLY THAN ANYONE ELSE BUT THE TOP SPEED. TWELVE MONARCHS 15/1 IS THE FASTEST CLOSER IN THE RACE.

RACE 2

E/S – FLATOYA 3/1 IS THE CLEAR TOP SPEED BUT COULD HAVE 2 CHALLENGERS EARLY IN HALAMA 5/2 AND SNEAK PEEK 8/1.

C – FLASHY BIZ 8/1 AND GOLD BUTTON 3/1 ARE THE TOP CLOSERS

RACE 3

E/S – EUPHORIC 3/1 HAS BIG TIME EARLY SPEED AND COULD BE LONG GONE

C – NONE

X-FACTORS – THERE ARE 6 FIRST TIME STARTERS. ONLY ONE IS A ML CONTENDER AND THAT IS MEGAN’S CLARA 8/1.

RACE 4

E/S – CABO DORADO 3/1 HAS TOP SPEED BUT DULCIMER DAME 7/2 AND RUNAWAY DREAM 8/1 WON’T BE FAR BEHIND EARLY.

C – NONE

RACE 5

E/S – TAKECHARGMATRIARCH 5/1 HAS THE CLEAR EARLY ADVANTAGE BUT WILL BE HOTLY PURSUED BY RECODED 5/2 AND DUPLICIOUS 3/1.

C – SUBIACO 9/2 IS THE BEST CLOSER AND THE 7 FURLONG DISTANCE SHOULD WORK TO HER ADVANTAGE.

RACE 6

E/S – BIG TIME SPEEDERS ARE MY MANE GIRL 6/1 AND SAIL ON ELLEN 5/1. THEY ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST.

C – KEEPTHE MAIN THING 7/2 IS CLEARLY THE BEST CLOSER AND SHOULD POSE A STRONG THREAT FROM BEHIND.

RACE 7

E/S –   THE PACE WILL BE WELL CONTESTED AS YOU COULD THROW A BLANKET OVER 4 HORSES RIGHT TOGETHER EARLY. JURISDICTION 5/1, IRISH SPIRIT 3/1, COMMUNICATOR 5/2 AND GOOD CLEAN FUN 5/1 ARE HARD TO SEPARATE.

C – ONLY MIDNIGHT PATRIOT 6/1 IS STRONG LATE AND THE EARLY DUEL SHOULD HELP HIM.

LS – TIZ MCNAMARA 12/1 COMES LATE AND IS THE SECOND BEST CLOSER IN THE FIELD.

RACE 8

E/S – RAGTIME BLUES 5/1 IS FASTEST EARLY SPEED AND SHOULD GET A CLEAR LEAD. OAK HILL 5/1 AND MO MOSA 4/1 ARE FAST ENOUGH TO APPLY SIGNIFICANT EARLY PRESSURE

C – SONNEMAN 7/5 AND WHAT A COUNTRY 5/1 ARE GOOD CLOSERS.

RACE 9

E/S – TOP SPEED IS STORM RUNNER 6/1 AT A PRICE. SUPER SOL 3/1 AND BELIEVEINHOLIDAYS 8/1 WILL SUPPLY THE EARLY PACE PRESSURE.

C – 2 STRONG CLOSERS FIT THE STYLE OF THIS TURF COURSE, HEMP HEMP HURRAY 7/2 AND APRECIADO 9/5.

LS – GO POKE THE BEAR 10/1 IS A CLOSER WITH A CHANCE NOT FAR BEHIND HHH.

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