CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 9/23/2020

[consensus Choice]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 9/23/2020

BEGINNING TODAY I WILL ONLY BE ANALYZING MORNING LINE CONTENDERS LISTED 8/1 OR LESS.

MOST RACES ARE WON BY ONE OF THESE HORSES. HORSES 10/1, 12/1 OR 15/1 CAN MAKE GOOD HORSES TO USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL WAGERS AND SOMETIMES SPRING A SURPRISE WIN. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT WIN OFTEN ENOUGH FOR YOU TO CONSIDER REGULARLY.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS STAKES RACES. THESE RACES LONGSHOTS ARE USUALLY STRONG HORSES.

RACE 1

E/S – CAROLINE LOIS 4/1 IS CLEARLY THE TOP SPEED AND WILL LEAD THEM AS FAR AS HER SPEED WIL CARRY HER, MAYBE ALL THE WAY.

C – TOOTSIE 3/1 IS CLEARLY THE BEST CLOSER. SILENT SURPRISE 5/1 WILL BE CLOSING AS WELL AND WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LEAD EARLY.

CAN IT BE THAT EASY?

RACE 2

E/S – WINGING WAYS 6/1 AND FIRST CITIZEN 3/1 SHOULD BE DUELING EARLY AND CAN MAKE THIS A 2 HORSE RACE.

C – NONE

RACE 3

E/S – STREET INDY 9/5 SHOULD CLEAR EARLY WITH MISSISSIPPI 8/1 IN CLOSE PURSUIT.

C – PROMPT 8/5 IS THE BEST CLOSER WITH HARDLY A SECRET 8/1 ALSO COMING HOME QUICKLY.

CHURCHILL DOWNS, OF ALL THE MAJOR TRACKS, FAVORS CLOSERS, EXCEPT WHEN IT DOESN’T.

RACE 4

E/S – TOP 2 SPEED ARE PASSAGEWAY 3/1 AND SOUTHERN WILL 5/2.

C – NONE

X-FACTORS – CASH ME OUT 6/1 IS THE ONLY FIRST TIME STARTER.

RACE 5

SPEED WILL RULE IN THE DIRT SPRINT.

E/S – PICK UP THE FONE 5/2 IS FASTEST EARLY, A HIGH PERCENTAGE PLAY FOR ML FAVORITES. SUPER WONDER GIRL 9/2 WILL BE RIGHT OFF THE TOP HORSES NECK AND THESE TWO SHOUD BE BATTLING EARLY AND LATE.

RECODED 3/1 WILL BE DRAFTING BEHIND THE TOP 2 IN THIRD AND CAN CERTAINLY WIN THIS. DUPLICITOUS 4/1 IS THE LIKELY REACHER.

C – NONE

RACE 6

E/S – ORSETTO 4/1 HAS BIG TIME EARLY SPEED AND WILL BE THE TARGET FOR THE FIRSTERS.

C – NONE

X-FACTORS – WILD COMBO 2/1, MARIAH’S PRINCESS 3/1 AND DANGER 6/1 ARE ALL FIRST TIMERS WHO COULD BE ANY KIND.

RACE 7

E/S – NOT A LOT OF SPEED EARLY. LOOKING AT LIBERTY 2/1 AND STREET CLASS 5/2 WILL BE IN FRONT BUT WON’T LIKELY OPEN UP ENOUGH TO DISADVANTAGE THE CLOSERS.

C – FIRST RATE 9/2 IS THE STRONGEST CLOSER, WITH STREET CLASS 5/2 POSSESING BOTH GOOD EARLY SPEED AS WELL. INDIAN COUNSELOR 8/1 WILL ALSO BE FLYING LATE.

RACE 8

E/S – MY SIXTH SENSE 8/1 MIGHT BE THE PRICE PLAY OF THE DAY. SHOULD BE CLEAR EARLY BY A WIDE MARGIN AND COULD PROVE TOUGH TO CATCH. ARGENTELLO 8/1 WILL BE THE CLOSEST EARLY PURSUER.

C – STRONGEST CLOSER IS ML FAVORITE SET PIECE 8/5. CULLUM ROAD 6/1 AND BIG AGENDA 4/1 WILL BE LATE FACTORS AS WELL IF THE SPEED FALTERS.

RACE 9

E/S – MALPAIS 5/2 AND SHARP ART 7/2 SHOULD BE HEAD TO HEAD THROUGHOUT. NOMO RON 4/1 WON’T BE FAR OFF AND COULD RUN BY BOTH THE TOP 2 LATE.

C – STAY HOME 8/1 AND GHOSTLY WHO 6/1 CAN CLOSE BUT DOUBT THEY CAN BEAT THREE FAST SPEEDSTERS TO THE WIRE.

HOWEVER, IF THE EARLY FRACTIONS ARE RIDICULOUS WHICH SEEMINGLY HAPPENS MORE AT CHURCHILLTHAN OTHER MAJOR TRACKS, IT IS POSSIBLE. WIDE OPEN FINALE.

 

 

 

 

 

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