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    CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY – 10/28/2020 – FULL CARD

    RACE 1

    E/S – ICATIRO 7/5 IS THE FASTEST EARLY BUT NOT BY A LARGE MARGIN. BOBBY BABY 8/1 AND LIGHT OF THE WORLD 8/1, ARE BOTH FAIR PRICES TO BE CLOSE EARLY. THE REST OF THE FIELD SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE SECOND TIER

    C – THERE ARE 2 CLOSERS OF NOTE. THE TOP ONE BOBBY BABY 8/1 IS ALSO THE SECOND SPEED HORSE WHICH COULD MAKE HIM DANGEROUS SINCE HE WILL CLOSE ENOUGH EARLY TO EFFECTIVE USE HIS CLOSING KICK. THE OTHER IS STROLLING 3/1 WHO WON’T BE IN THE EARLY SPEED GROUP BUT IS ALMOST ON EQUAL TERMS WHEN IT COMES TO CLOSING LATE.

    RACE 2

    E/S – THE TOP SPEEDS ARE AUTOPILOT 5/1 AND CONQUISTADOR SHOW 7/2. THEY WILL BE SETTING A MODERATE EARLY PACE.

    C – TOP CLOSER BY FAR IS THE ML FAVORITE AMERICAN HUMOR 3/1. 

    X-FACTORS – TWO LONGSHOTS, HAWK TAIL 10/1 AND HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT 12/1 ARE BOTH FIRST TIME STARTERS WHO CAN PAY A FAIR PRICE IF THEY ARE READY TO FIRE. THERE ARE NO SUPERSTARS AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE STARTED

    RACE 3

    E/S – THE PACE IN THIS THIRD STRAIGHT DIRT SPRINT AT 6 FURLONGS WILL BE FAST AND FURIOUS COMPARED TO THE FIRST 2 RACES. HOOF PRINCE 5/2 AND SUSPECT 10/1 SHOULD BE SMOKING EARLY WITH ALL EYES WEST 2/1 SITTING IN THE GARDEN SPOT STALKING THE TOP 2 EARLY.

    C – THE ONLY CLOSER WHO SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF CATCHING THE SPEEDS IS BLUERIDGE MOUNTAIN 7/2. SINCE HE IS NOT A SUPER STRONG CLOSER, THE SPEED WILL NEED TO FALL APART FOR HIM TO SUCCEED.

    RACE 4

    E/S – THIS MILE RACE WILL HAVE A STRONG CONTESTED PACE WITH HE’S THE SUOPERWON 5/2MIDNIGHT SWAP 6/1 AND PADDY O’DINI 6/5 BATTLING EARLY.

    C – THERE ARE NO CLOSERS TO FEAR

    RACE 5

    E/S – THIS 7 FURLONG MAIDEN CLAIMER WILL BE A SLOW WALK EARLY. NOT ONE RUNNER HAS DISTINGUSIHED HERSELF EARLY.

    C – MAGIC SOLUTION 7/5 IS THE BEST CLOSER AND SHOULD BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE PACE EARLY WHICH COULD MAKE HER HARD TO BEAT. LONGSHOT WHAT GOES ON TOUR 12/1 IS THE ONLY OTHER CLOSER WORTH MENTIONING.

    X-FACTORS – TWO FIRST TIMERS GET AN EXCELLENT RACE TO STRUT THERE STUFF AS NO ONE HERE IS VERY QUICK EARLY OR LATE. THE LEADING CANDIDATE IS CARRY ON 3/1. THE OTHER IS LONGSHOT POST CODE ENVY 15/1.

    RACE 6

    E/S – TOP SPEED BY FAR IS LONGSHOT HIGH PROOF 10/1. HE SHOULD BE WELL IN FRONT EARLY. IF NOT, TAKE YOUR PICK.

    C – TOP CLOSER IS SHASHASHAKEMEUP 8/5 WHO IS A FAST CLOSER AND SHOULD BE A WELL-BET FAVORITE. COLTONATOR 3/1 AND STAY HAPPY 6/1 ALSO LIKE TO RUN ON LATE.

    RACE 7

    A LOT OF RUNNERS (17) SIGNED UP FOR THE TURF ROUTE WITH 4 ALSO-ELIGIBLES (AE)AND 3 MAIN TRACK ONLY (MTO).

    E/S – THE TOP 3 EARLY SPEED HORSES MAY NOT RUN. SKY TEMPLE (AE) 4/1RICOCHET (MTO) 8/1 AND SANTA CRUISER (MTO) 5/2. IF THEY DON’T GO THEN REPO ROCKS 8/1 AND LOUMO 7/2 SHOULD SET A MODERATE EARLY PACE.

    C – THERE IS ONLY ONE SERIOUS LEGITIMATE CLOSER, LAKER MAMBA 3/1.

    X-FACTORS – 3 UNKNOWNS, FIRST TIMERS AMERICAN PATROL 8/1 AND GHOSTLIGHTER 15/1 AND FREDDY FLINTSHIRE 8/1 HAS RACED BUT IS UNRATED.

    RACE 8

    E/S – BACK TO A DIRT SPRINT AT 6 FURLONGS. A CONTESTED EARLY PACE LED BY CHASING ANNA 8/1LONG TERM THINKING 6/5 AND LAKE NIMROD 2/1.

    C – 2 CLOSERS LONGSHOT NILES CHANNEL 12/1 AND BUBBA CABALLO 8/1 LIKE TO RUN LATE BUT COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO CATCH THE TOP  2 SPEEDERS.

    X-FACTORS – LONGSHOT NIGHT CANDY 15/1 IS THE ONLY FIRST TIMER.

    RACE 9

    ANOTHER TURF ROUTE AT 1 3/8 MILES.

    E/S – ONLY REAL SPEED IS LONGSHOT SHIMMERING 12/1.

    C – BIG TIME CLOSER IS SURSUM CORDA 9/2FIRST COURSE (AE) 3/1 ALSO RUNS BIG LATE AT A TURF DISTANCE  THAT IS OFTEN WON BY CLOSERS. OTHERS THAT RUN BEST FROM BEHIND WITH REALISTIC CHANCES TO HIT THE BOARD ARE COILEAN BROWN 7/2THREE FLAMINGOS 6/1 AND QUIET DIGNITY 7/2.

    X-FACTORS – WAR LIKE GODDESS 6/1 HAS RACED WELL BUT IS UNRATED.

    RACE 10

    E/S – MILE RACE HAS A DOMINATE FRONT RUNNER IN DRINK 9/5. HE SHOULD BE TOUGH TO CATCH. IF HE SHOULD FALTER THOSE CHASING COULD INHERIT THE LEAD IN THE STRETCH, SUBDUED 3/1, LONGSHOT HITTHEGROUNDRUNNIN 15/1, LONGSHOT BLAZED UP 12/1 AND LEA RIDGE 8/1.

    C – THERE ARE NO CREDIBLE CLOSERS, SO FEEL FREE TO “KEY THE SPEED”

     

     

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