[consensus Choice]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 9/24/2020

RACE 1

E/S – WAYAKIN 7/2 IS THE TOP SPEED BY A LOT AND HE IS ALSO THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE PLAY IN RECENT WEEKS.

C – BEAUCETTE’S EKATI 9/2 IS BY FAR THE BEST CLOSER.

RACE 2

E/S – WE’RE STILL HERE 6/1 SHOULD BE THE CONTROLLING PACE PLAYER EARLY. HEX 8/1 AND SEIZE THE DAY 5/2 CAN BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO STAY IN CONTACT WITH THE LEADER EARLY.

C – SEIZE THE DAY 5/2 COULD CHOOSE TO COME FROM OFF THE PACE BEING THE BEST CLOSER BUT SITTING CLOSER THAN USUAL AND SMART CALL 7/2 SHOULD BE RUNNING LATE AS WELL.

RACE 3

E/S – GOING TO BE A SCRAMBLE EARLY. FOUR HORSES ARE VERY CLOSE IN ABILITY. HARD TEN 4/1, I’M JUST FINE 8/1, AIRSTEEM 7/2 AND ABAAN 9/2 SHOULD BE VYING FOR THE ADVANTAGE EARLY.

C – MAU MAU 3/1 SHOULD BE LICKING HIS LIPS IF THERE IS A CONTESTED PACE AS HE IS A BIG TIME CLOSER. DISTORTED MOON 7/2 COULD ALSO BENEFIT BY AN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE EARLY BATTLE.

RACE 4

E/S – SPEIGHTFUL CHARGE 5/1 SHOULD BE THE EARLY LEADER WITH ONLY WHAT’S THE MOVE 4/1 CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A THREAT.

C – DADDYMADEMEDOIT 3/1 IS A SERIOUS CLOSER WHICH SHOULD WORK WELL IN THIS TURF ROUTE. WHAT’S THE MOVE 4/1 FIGURES FROM BEHIND AS WELL ALONG WITH AREEMAA 8/1.

RACE 5

C – LAST SAMURAI 5/1 IS THE ONLY CONTENDER WITH A START THAT CAN BE RATED. HE CLOSED WELL ENOUGH TO BE A STRONG WIN THREAT.

X-FACTORS – BOTH ALEJANDRO 5/2 AND A C EXPEESSWAY 7/2 ARE FIRST TIME STARTERS. BUFFALO SHUFFLE 3/1 HAS RUN BUT HAS NO RATING BUT IS CONSIDERED A STRONG SECOND CHOICE BY THE MORNING LINE.

RACE 6

E/S – HIDDEN TALENT 3/1 IS FAVORED BY THE ML AND HAS SUPERIOR EARLY SPEED. SUBDUED 8/1 AND MIDNIGHT PATRIOT 9/2 CAN BE EFFECTIVE STALKERS

C – JACK’S ADVANTAGE 4/1 IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM BEHIND WHILE MONEY FOR MISCHIEF 8/1 WILL ALSO BE CLOSING.

RACE 7

E/S – MAJESTIC BLEND 7/2 SHOULD BE THE EARLY LEADER WITH PALIO FLAG 2/1 CLOSEST EARLY. REGAL BEAUTY 4/1, ENJOTITWHILEWECAN 4/1 AND GERRI B 8/1 SHOULD BE STALKING FROM THIRD.

C – REGAL BEAUTY 4/1 AND ENJOYITWHILEYOUCAN 4/1 SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE STRETCH FROM A CLOSEUP POSITION.

RACE 8

E/S – SUGOI 8/1 HAS SERIOUS EARLY SPEED AND SHOULD BE ISOLATED EARLY. SABADOR 8/1 AND ROTATION 2/1 ARE THE TOP PAIR WAITING FOR THE SPEED TO COME BACK TO THEM.

C – MOROCCO 7/5 IS A SERIOUS CLOSER WHO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO COLLAR THE EARLY SPEED. SABRADOR 8/1, ROTATION 2/1, TIZZARUNNER 3/1 AND KAZIRANGA 6/1 WILL BE RUNNING LATE BUT THE LATER TWO MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST A PIECE OF THE PIE.

RACE 9

E/S – OF THOSE THAT HAVE RUN, SWILL 4/1 SHOULD HAVE THE LEAD AND SANTA CRUISER 7/2 STALKING.

C – NONE

X-FACTORS – FOUR FIRSTERS ARE CONTENDERS, SCARLET FUSION 3/1, RACE CRAFT 7/2, RUNAWAY MAGIC 4/1, AND BIG LAKE 8/1.   

 

 

 

 

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