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    CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 9/17/2020

    RACE 1

    E/S – SHORT FIELD LED BY BIG TIME SPEEDER SHACKLEFORD COUNTY 8/5. SHE HAS A BIG ADVANTAGE OVER EVERYONE IN THE FIELD. QUEENOFCATNIPHILL 5/2 IS THE LIKELY CHASER BUT SHOULD BE FAR BEHIND LEADER EARLY.

    C – DOUBLE OAKED 3/1 IS THE SERIOUS CLOSER HERE TRYING TO RUN DOWN A RUNAWAY LEADER

    RACE 2

    E/S – WILD LOVE 4/5 IS ANOTHER FAVORITE WITH A BIG EARLY ADVANTAGE. STORM AT SEA 3/1 WILL BE CLOSEST EARLY.

    C – EXTRA ATTENTION 9/2 IS THE BEST CLOSER WITH SINGITA DREAMS 5/1 FOLOWING HER HOME.

    LS – GOLD INCLUDED 15/1 WILL TRY TO GO LAST TO FIRST AS THE SECOND BEST CLOSER ON PAPER.

    RACE 3

    E/S – BIG TIME EARLY SPEED ON DISPLAY HERE SHOULD LEAD TO A FASTER THAN NORMAL PACE. CONTROL SHAKE 3/1, NICE WORK 8/1 AND HOLD ME BLACK 5/2 ARE HARD TO SEPARATE.

    C – TOP CLOSING CONTENDER IS HOLLY BLAME 3/1 FOLLOWED BY BITUMEN 7/2. NEITHER OF THESE ARE FAST LATE RUNNERS. THEIR BEST CHANCE COMES IF THE SPEED HORSES GO TOO FAST EARLY.

    LS – UNDERCOVER LETTER 12/1 AND SPEIGHTSONG 12/1 ARE THE BEST CLOSERS BUT ARE NOT BEING RESPECTED BY THE MORNING LINE, OFTEN A SIGN THAT THEIR CURRENT FORM DOESN’T IMPRESS.

    RACE 4

    E/S – INSTIGATED 5/1 SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEPARATE EARLY ON THE LEAD. CLOSEST PURSUERS SHOULD BE BOSS LIFE 7/2 AND GOOD CLEAN FUN 5/1.

    CLOSERS – NONE

    X-FACTOR – ONLY FIRSTER IS LONGSHOT AHMAS 12/1.

    RACE 5

    FIRST TURF RACE IS 1 1/16 MILES FOR MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS IS A WIDE-OPEN AFFAIR.

    TOP SPEEDER BY A WIDE MARGIN IS OCTAVA 7/2 WHO IS AN MTO. IF SHE DOESN’T RUN, REGAL PASSAGE 6/1 IS THE CLEAR LEADER. URBANA 8/1 AND GREAT ISLAND 7/5 ARE BOTH REALLY CLOSERS THAT HAVE ENOUGH EARLY SPEED TO NOT FALL TOO FAR BEHIND HOPING TO GET A JUMP ON THE DEEPER CLOSERS.

    C – SEVERAL GOOD CLOSERS SIGNED ON. TAKE CHARGE PATTI 6/1, GREAT ISLAND 7/5, PYTHONESS 6/1, SHE’S A DEAL 3/1 MTO, AND URBANA 8/1.

    X-FACTORS – PALAMOS 5/1 AND DINN RIGH 10/1 ARE ONLY FIRSTERS.

    LS – BOTH SHELL SHOCK 10/1 AND TIZEMOTIONALGOLD 15/1 BOTH HAVE CONTENDNG EARLY SPEED.

    RACE 6

    ONLY ONE HORSE HAS STARTED A RACE IN THE AFTERNOON.

    E/S – LITTLESTITIOUS 4/1 HAS DECENT EARLY SPEED AND COULD GO FAVORED AND MUST BE CAUGHT.

    X-FACTORS – 11 FIRST TIMERS, 4 OF THOSE 8/1 OR LESS IN ML.

     RACE 7

    E/S – TWO HORSES DOMINATE THE EARLY PACE WITH BIG TIME SPEED. JESSUP 2/1 SHOULD BE FIRST OUT OF THE GATE AND MY MAN FLINTSTONE 3/1 SHOULD BE PRESSURING HARD EARLY.NO ONE ELSE IS CLOSE.

    C – TOP CLOSER IS INTIMIDATION 4/1. BIGMANCAN 6/1 ALSO RUNS BEST FROM BEHIND.

    LS – JURISDICTION 12/1 COULD BE EARLY FACTOR SITTING BEHIND THE TOP 2. GROOVE DADDY 12/1 IS ANOTHER WHO COMES RUNNING LATE.

    RACE 8

    1 MILE ON TURF STARTER ALLOWANCE.

    E/S – MAJOR ATTRACTION 3/1 SHOULD BE THE CLEAR LEADER EARLY. BOX OF CHOCOLATES 8/1 AND BEAVER HAT 9/2 WON’T BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A CHANCE IF THE TOP HORSE FALTERS.

    C – TOP CLOSER IS FRA MAURO 5/1 AND FRONT MAN 5/2 ARE THE ONES TO FEAR LATE. BEAVER HAT 9/2 HAS SOME EARLY SPEED AS WELL, SO HE SHOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE LEADER BEFORE STARTING HIS LATE RUN.

    LS – TIS OUR TURN 10/1 CAN BE AN EARLY PACE FACTOR TRACKING THE CLEAR PROJECTED LEADER.

    RACE 9

    LARGE FIELD OF 2-YEAR OLD MAIDEN SPRINTERS TO END THE CARD.

    E/S – DECADE 3/1 IS CLEARLY FASTEST FLASHING BIG TIME EARLY LICK. MONTGOMERY PARK 3/1 ALSO HAS GREAT EARLY FOOT. THE FIRST TIME STARTERS BETTER HAVE THEIR RUNNING SHOES ON TO BEAT EITHER RUNNER.

    CNONE OF THE CONTENDERS

     X-FACTORS9 FIRST TIME STARTERS, 3 OF THEM ML CONTENDERS.

     LS – LEN LO LADY 10/1 HAS SHOWN SOME CLOSING ABILITY.

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