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Home Forums Horse Racing Picks CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 11/5/2020

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      CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY 11/5/2020  

       EARLY SPEED (E/S) AND CLOSERS (C) ANALYSIS ONLY INCLUDE HORSES THAT ARE MORNING LINE CONTENDERS (8/1 OR LESS). LONGSHOTS (10/1 OR HIGHER) ARE LISTED UNDER LS.

       RACE 1

      E/S – TWO VERY FAST RUNNERS FACE OFF EARLY HERE. ROUX GA ROUX 9/2 AND PIRATE RICK 5/2.

      C – ONLY LEMON AND DIEM 7/2 IS A FAIR LATE CLOSER

      RACE 2

      E/S – ANOTHER DUEL AMONG PRICE HORSES. HIGH SEASON 8/1 AND LANGUAGE BARRIER 6/1 SHOULD BE THROWING IT DOWN EARLY.

      C – ONLY FAIR CLOSER IS STAR MISSION 6/1.

      RACE 3

      E/S – LOTS OF FAST SPEED ON DISPLAY IN THE FIRST 3 RACES. HARD TO BE GOOD 3/1 AND CHARLIE’SARCHANGEL 4/1 ARE VERY QUICK. STREET TO INDY 7/2 AND LADDIE BOY 4/1 ARE NOT AS FAST BUT FAST ENOUGH TO BE CLOSE TO THE DUELERS EARLY AND MAYBE INHERIT THE LEAD IF THEY BURN EACH OTHER OUT.

      C – HARDLY A SECRET 4/1 IS THE BIG CLOSER.

      RACE 4

      E/S – KIFFLE 2/1 IS THE TOP HORSE AND SHOULD CLEAR SHACKLEFORD COUNTY 5/2 BUT WILL STILL HEAR THAT ONE’S FOOTSTEPS STALKING HERE.

      C – CENTERFOLD ANGEL 6/1 AND PARKING TICKET 5/1 ARE THE TOP CLOSERS AND BOTH ARE CLOSE IN ABILITY.

      RACE 5

      E/S – ENJOYITWHILEWECAN 3/1 IS FASTEST. MARKET RUMOR 5/2 IS SECOND BEST.  

      C – 2 GOOD CLOSERS SIGNED UP FOR THIS 1 1/8 RACE. FIRST COURSE 8/1 AND TEMPERS RISING 2/1. ARE ABOUT EQUAL BUT THE FIRST IS A MUCH BETTER PRICE.

      LS – MATT’S HONEY 10/1 CAN BE A PACE FACTOR CHASING THE EARLY LEADER.

      RACE 6

      E/S – LITTLE KNOWN SPEED IN HERE. ALWAYS LATE 4/1 IS QUICKEST.

      C – LET’S SKEDADDLE 3/1 IS A TOP CLOSER FOR A 2-YEAR OLD.

      X-FACTORS – REBUFF 3/1 AND RICHEBOURG 4/1 ARE BOTH FIRST TIMERS.

      LS – ESPERER 12/1 HAS SPEED TO BE IN A PACE BATTLE WITH THE EARLY LEADER.

      RACE 7

      E/S – WINDCRACKER 3/1 SHOULD BE THE CLEAR LEADER. VEGAS GUY 7/2 AND TOP GOLD 6/1 WILL BE IN HOT PURSUIT.

      C – BIG IN THE CITY 6/1 IS ONLY A FAIR CLOSER.

      LS –SUPER WISE 10/1 HAS GOOD SPEED. TWO PRINCES 12/1 ALSO HAS SOME LATE SPEED.

      RACE 8

      E/S – TOP SPEEDERS ARE HAYDENS HAVOC 8/1 AND ROB THE RICH 7/2. EVEN CASH 5/1 NOW WILL SHOW SPEED.

      C – EEL POINT 5/2 THE ML FAVORITE IS A TOUGH CLOSER.

      RACE 9

      E/S – SNAPPER SINCLAIR 7/2 IS THE TOP SPEED. BOTH PARLOR 5/2 AND BORRACHO 5/2 WON’T BE FAR AWAY.

      C – BG SCORE 4/1 IS A BIG TIME CLOSER. MR. MISUNDERSTOOD 7/2 AND PARLOR 5/2 DO THEIR BEST RUNNING LATE AS WELL

      LS –REAL NEWS 10/1 ON HIS BEST DAY IS THE FASTEST HORSE IN THE RACE EARLY. JASIKAN 15/1 IS A TOP NOTCH CLOSER OFF HIS BEST.

      RACE 10

      E/S – COULD YOU 5/2 VERY WELL COULD BE AS SHE SHOULD BE LOOSE EARLY. BOW DOWN TEWMEY 5/1 AND IRISH WILLOW 3/1 ARE NOT IN THE TOP HORSE’S LEAGUE BUT THEY WILL BE CHASING.

      C – ONLY CREATE A STORY 4/1 CLOSES FROM AMONG THE CONTENDERS BUT IS A TEPID CLOSER AT BEST.

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