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Home Forums Horse Racing Picks CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 10/29/2020

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      CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 10/29/2020

      RACE 1

      E/S – SUBSTANTIAL 3/1 AND BEAVER HAT 9/5 SHOULD LEAD EARLY.

      C – FRA MAURO 8/5 AND BEAVER HAT 9/5 ARE THE TOP CLOSERS.

      RACE 2

      E/S – TIZSO AWESOME 9/5 AND SUPER CAT 3/1 ARE THE SPEED BRIGADE.

      C – THE ONLY CLOSER IS LONGSHOT GRIMPANTE 12/1.

      X-FACTORS – LONGSHOT SHAHERA 12/1 IS THE ONLY FIRSTER.

      RACE 3

      E/S – BLANKENBAKER 3/1 IS THE TOP SPEED AND WILL BE CHASED BY LONGSHOT HEX 10/1 AND TACTICIAN 8/5.

      C – 2 MODERATE CLOSERS LED BY DETECTIVE 8/1 AND TACTICIAN 8/5.

      RACE 4

      E/S – DIRT MILE HAS A CLEAR-CUT SPEED CONTENDER IN ABOVE BOARD 3/1. LONGSHOTS BLUE STEEL 10/1 CAN PRESSURE TOP HORSE EARLY AND QUICKSILVER 10/1 WILL LIKELY STALK IN THIRD.

      C – TRES EQUIS 5/1 IS BEST CLOSER AND SHOULD BENEFIT FROM AN EARLY DUEL. ZEALOUS 5/2 ALSO DOES HIS BEST RUNNING LATE BUT MAY BE LIMITED TO A MINOR AWARD.

      RACE 5

      E/S – COPLEY 5/2 IS THE CLEAR SPEED. NIP N TUCK 4/1 AND SIR ACEALOT 3/1 WILL BE CHASING. WITH THE LACK LATE SPEED EVEN LONGSHOT BIG SKY MONTANA 12/1 COULD FILL OUT EXOTIC TICKETS UNDERNEATH.

      C – THERE ARE NO CLOSERS TO FEAR

      RACE 6

      E/S – THERE ARE 3 RUNNERS WHO SHOULD SET OR PRESS THE PACE. ATTACHMENT RATE 7/5, GUIDED MISSLE 6/1 AND ONE NATION 5/1.

      C – TOP CLOSERS ARE ATTACHMENT RATE 7/5 AND ALEX JOON 9/2.

      RACE 7

      5 1/2 TURF SPRINT USUALLY FAVORS E/S

      E/S – THE REAL SPEED HORSES JOY OF PAINTING 5/1 AND ILLEGAL SMILE 8/5 ARE ALSO ELIGIBLES. IF THEY DON’T GO, A SLOW PACE LED BY RISKY REWARD 4/1 AND CUZZYWUZZY 7/2 IS LIKELY UNLESS THEY CAN’T KEEP UP WITH THE NEW FACES.

      C – ONLY CLOSER WITH MODERATE RUN IS CUZZZYWUZZY 7/2

      X-FACTORS – TRAIN TO ARTEMUS 4/1 IS UNRATED. IMPEACH ME 9/2 AND SANTA RITA 9/2 ARE WELL REGARDED FIRST TIMERS.

      RACE 8

      E/S – 4 EVENLY MATCHED SPEED TYPES ZUSHA 9/2, BYE BYE BERTIE 8/1, CARDAMON 4/1 AND LONGSHOT A.P. PRINCESS 15/1 SHOULD BE SHOULDER TO SHOULDER EARLY.

      C – TOP CLOSERS ARE THE ML FAVORITE CLUB CAR 2/1 AND REGAL RETORT 6/1.

      RACE 9

      ANOTHER 1 3/8 TURF RACE WHICH USUALLY FAVORS CLOSERS

      E/S – ONLY TOP CONTENDERS LIKELY TO BE PACE FACTORS ARE KENTUCKY GHOST 4/1 AND SHARECROPPER 7/2.

      C – WHILE MOST EVERY CONTENDER RUNS LATE, THE TOP CONTENDERS ARE HELLORHIGHWATER 9/2, AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAY 3/1. THE OTHER CLOSER OF NOTE, LONGSHOT ORIGINAL INTENT 10/1, IS AN MTO.

      RACE 10

      E/S – TOP SPEEDERS IN THIS DIRT MILE ARE RAYO DE LUZ 9/2, TOWN DRUNK 9/2 AND LONGSHOT FEELING IT 15/1.

      C – BIG TIME CLOSER TO FEAR IS MARTIAL EAGLE 5/1.

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