CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR SUNDAY – 11/1/2020

[consensus Choice]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR SUNDAY – 11/1/2020

RACE 1

E/S – RARE FORM 5/2 IS TOP FRONTRUNNER AND WILL BE HARD TO CATCH. MOONOVERSEBA 3/1 AND GREELEY AND BEN 3/1 WILL BE ON THE CHASE THE WHOLE TRIP.

C – NONE

RACE 2

E/S – THE SPEED ARE LONGSHOTS MAJESTIC EDGE 8/1 AND MIS ELAIN E US 8/1.

C – WHILE THE TOP CLOSERS ARE TEPID AT BEST, THEY ARE THE TOP 2 FAVORITES, GESTURE 6/5 AND BET YOUR BANKROLL 7/2.

RACE 3

E/S – TOP SPEEDS ARE CLARESTOWN 6/1 AND LONGSHOT WAYAKIN 10/1. THE STALKERS ARE LEND IT TWENTY 8/1, ML FAVORITE ILLEGAL SMILE 4/5 AND HILLBILLY LOGIC 6/1.

C – NONE

X-FACTORS – DINNER BELL 6/1 HAS RACED BUT IS UNRATED. THE OTHER UNRATED HORSE AND 4 FIRST TIMERS ARE ALL LONGSHOTS.

RACE 4

E/S – SHORT FIELD IS NOT SHORT ON SPEED. THIS SHOULD BE A DOGFIGHT BETWEEN HONEY PARADE 3/1, LA FEMME ROYALE 5/2 AND HETTY G. 3/1.

C – NONE

RACE 5

E/S – HOISTTHEMAINSAIL 7/2 HAS LITTLE EARLY OPPOSITION AND SHOULD BE LONG GONE.

C – CLOSERS STORMING LION 2/1 AND AMES MISTER 5/1 WILL HAVE TO RUN DOWN A LONE FRONT RUNNER, A DIFFICULT TASK INDEED.

RACE 6

E/S – TOP 2 CONTENDING SPEED ARE NINEELEVENTURBO 4/1 AND CARMICHAEL 5/1.

C – THREE STRONG CLOSERS, EXULT 8/1, BRIEFCAE BULLY 5/2 AND CAPT. MAESTRI 6/1.

X-FACTORS – THERE ARE 2 FIRST TIME STARTERS WHO ARE ML CONTENDERS, BRAZILLIONAIRE 7/2 AND IMPERIAL CONFLICT 8/1.

TOUGH RACE.

RACE 7

E/S – OF THE TWO HORSES WHO HAVE STARTED, THE ML FAVORITE UNITEDANDRESOLUTE 2/1 HAS SHOWN SUPERIOR EARLY SPEED. SLIP INTRO 5/1 ALSO SHOWED SPEED BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE A THREAT TO THE TOP HORSE AND NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BEAT A PRECOCIOUS FIRST TIMER.

C – NONE

X-FACTORS – THERE ARE 7 FIRST TIME STARTERS, 5 OF WHICH ARE ML CONTENDERS, CONVENTION 4/1, TEST OF WILL 6/1, KING OF NITE 8/1, ANGKOR 8/1 AND SWOT ANALYSIS 8/1.

RACE 8

E/S – 4 QUICK EARLY SPEED TYPES WILL MAKE OR FORCE THE PACE. LONGSHOT FULL AUTHORITY 15/1 IS JUST QUICKER THAN GIROLAMO’S ATTACK 5/2 AND KADRI 7/2. ENERGIZER 7/2 ALSO FIGURES RIGHT THERE.

C – THE MAIN CLOSER TO FEAR IS ANSWER IN 3/1.

RACE 9

E/S – EVEN THOUGH THIS RACE IS AT 1 3/8 MILES, A CLOSERS DISTANCE, THERE ARE 2 HORSES WITH GOOD SPEED. THE TOP HORSE IS GOLDEN CURL 5/1, THE OTHER LIKELY TO BE ON THE CHASE IS CASH OUT 5/1. THESE TWO ARE THE ONLY EARLY SPEED RUNNERS.

C – DELTA’S KINGDOM 5/2 IS THE BEST CLOSER. ROMANTIC PURSUIT 3/1 ALSO RUNS WELL LATE.

RACE 10

E/S – TOP SPEED IS THE ML FAVORITE FUGITIVE 9/5. THERE ARE ALSO 2 LONGSHOTS THAT CAN COMPETE EARLY, MONTE NE 10/1 AND WINGING WAYS 10/1.

C – SMART CALL 3/1 IS A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLOSER.

X-FACTORS – LONGSHOT CANOE 10/1 IS ONE OF TWO FIRST TIME STARTERS, THE OTHER IS A 30/1 SHOT.

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