BREEDERS' CUP AT KEENELAND ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 11/6/2020

[consensus Choice]

BREEDERS’ CUP AT KEENELAND ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 11/6/2020

EARLY SPEED (E/S) AND CLOSERS (C) ANALYSIS ONLY INCLUDE HORSES THAT ARE MORNING LINE CONTENDERS (8/1 OR LESS). LONGSHOTS (10/1 OR HIGHER) ARE LISTED UNDER LS.

RACE 1 – NYQUIST STAKES $125,000

E/S – BIG TIME SPEED FROM SAFFA’S DAY 7/2 AND QUICK TEMPO 5/2.

C – ONLY MODERATE CLOSERS UPSTRIKER 6/1 AND HIGHLY MOTIVATED 7/2

LS – RODERICK 10/1 HAS ENOUGH EARLY SPEED TO BE RIGHT ON THE PACE EARLY.

RACE 2 – SONGBIRD STAKES $125,000

E/S – CALIFORNIA LILY 9/2 AND JOY’S ROCKET 9/2 ARE THE BIG TIME SPEED

C – ONLY CLOSER TO FEAR IS THE GRASS IS BLUE 4/1

LS – OFF WE GO 10/1 HAS ENOUGH EARLY LICK TO BE RIGHT IN THE THICK OF THINGS.

RACE 3 – BRYAN STATION STAKES $150,000

E/S – DON JUAN KITTEN 6/1 AND FANCY LIQUOR 4/1 ARE THE FASTEST EARLY.

C – PIXELATE 8/1 AND RECONVENE 8/1 ARE THE TOP CLOSERS

X-FACTORS – ORDER OF AUSTRALIA 6/1 IS UNRATED.

LS – ENFORCEABLE 10/1 IS THE TOP CLOSER IN THE FIELD AND MUST BE RESPECTED.

RACE 4 – MCCONNELL SPRING STAKES $150,000

E/S – BIG SPEED FROM AMY’S CHALLENGE 4/1 AND HEADLAND 6/1.

C – TOP CLOSER IS UNIQUE FACTOR 6/1.

RACE 5 – THE AFTERCARE ALLIANCE (G2) $200,000

E/S –PLUS QUE PARFAIT 8/1 WILL LIKELY BE LEADING EARLY BUT HAS ONLY MODERATE EARLY SPEED. THAT IS SOMETIMES DANGEROUS IN A LONG RACE LIKE THIS FOR CLOSERS THAT ARE PACE DEPENDENT.

C – BIG TIME CLOSER IS TENFOLD 5/1. CUPID’S CLAWS 5/1 AND YOU’RE TO BLAME 8/1 ARE ALSO THREATS FROM BEHIND

LS – MILITIAMAN 15/1 IS MOST LIKELY TO PRESS THE PACE EARLY. BOTH ROCKETRY 12/1 AND FARMINGTON ROAD 15/1 WILL BE COMING HOME QUICKLY LATE.

RACE 6 – BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (G2) $1,000,000

E/S – THREE SPEED BURNERS LEAD THIS SHORT TURF SPRINT. BODENHEIMER 8/1, GOLDEN PAL 8/5, AND COWAN 8/1.

C – BEST CLOSER IS SECOND OF JULY 8/1

LS – MOMOS 15/1 IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST HORSE EARLY IN THE ENTIRE FIELD

RACE 7 – BC JUVENILE TURF (G1) $1,000,000

E/S –   OUTADORE 8/1 IS QUICKEST AND SHOULD HAVE THE LEAD EARLY.  MUTASAABEQ 5/1 AND GRETZKY THE GREAT 8/1 WILL BE HIS EARLY PURSUERS.

C – BEST CLOSER IS PUBLIC SECTOR 8/1

X-FACTORS – CADILLAC 6/1, BATTLEGROUND 6/1, AND SEALIWAY 8/1

LS – ABARTA 12/1 IS RIGHT BEHIND PUBLIC SECTOR LATE

RACE 8 – BC JUVENILE FILLIES (G1) $2,000,000

E/S – LOTS OF SPEED ON DISPLAY. TOP 2 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE 5/2 AND VEQUIST 8/1

C – ONLY CLOSER IS MODERATE LATE RUNNER GIRL DADDY 8/1

RACE 9 – BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF (G1) $1,000,000

E/S – AUNT PEARL 3/1 IS THE CLEAR EARLY SPEED.  CAMPANELLE 4/1 SHOULD BE CLOSEST TO HER EARLY.

C – PLUM ALI 4/1 IS THE TOP CLOSER AMONG THE CONTENDERS.

LS – EDITOR AT LARGE 12/1 IS THE TOP CLOSER IN THE FIELD.

RACE 10 – BC JUVENILE (G1) $2,000,000

E/S –TWO TOP SPEEDSTERS ARE JACKIE’S WARRIOR 7/5 AND REINVESTMENT RISK 9/2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4/1 IS NOT NEARLY AS FAST BUT CAN SIT IN THE GARDEN SPOT AND HOPE THE SPEED COMES BACK TO HIM.

C – NONE

LS – LIKEABLE 15/1 CAN BE IN THE EARLY BATTLE BEING CLOSEST TO THE TOP SPEED HORSE. CLOSERS SITTIN ON GO 12/1 AND ROMBAUER 15/1 ARE THE TOP 2 CLOSERS IN THE ENTIRE FIELD OFF THEIR BEST RACES.

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