BREEDERS CUP 2021 AT DEL MAR ANALYSIS – SATURDAY 11-6-2021

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2021 BREEDERS’ CUP AT DEL MAR ANALYSIS

DAY 2 – SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2021

ANALYSIS IN MORNING LINE ORDER (NOT ORDER OF PREFERENCE)

 

DEL MAR RACE 4 – BC JUVENILE FILLY AND MARE SPRINT 7 FURLONGS G1 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#5 GAMINE 3/5 – HAS ONLY LOST ONCE IN 10 STARTS AND THAT WAS IN THE KENTUCKY OAKS WHICH WAS TOO FAR FOR HER AND SHE STILL FINISHED THIRD. WON THIS RACE LAST YEAR. HAS ALSO WON 5 OTHER G1’S, INCLUDING THE BALLERINA AT SARATOGA LAST TIME, THE TEST AND THE ACORN LAST YEAR. THIS BAFFERT SUPERSTAR HAS HAD THE LEAD AT THE FIRST TWO CALLS IN 9 OF HER 10 STARTS AND JUST IMPROVES FROM THERE. SHE IS UNDEFEATED SPRINTING AND HAS WON 4 TIMES AT THIS DISTANCE. DESERVING FAVORITE.

#6 BELLA SOPHIA 5/2 – IS A REALLY NICE FILLY WHO HAS WON 4 OF 5 RACES INCLUDING THE G1 TEST AT TODAYS DISTANCE. WOULD LOVE HER IF NOT FOR THE TOP FILLY. SHE AND GAMINE WILL HOOKUP EARLY AND SHE WILL HAVE EVERY CHANCE TO PROVE HERSELF WORTHY OF THE CROWN THAT GAMINE CURRENTLY WEARS.

#4 CE CE 4/1 -WAS A NON-THREATENING THIRD BEHIND GAMINE IN THE G1 BALLERINA. HER GRADE 1 WIN GAME AT A DISTANCE IN THE APPLE BLOSSOM LAST YEAR. HER SPRINT SCORES HAVE BEEN IN G2’S AND G3’S. TALL TASK, WOULD NEED A PACE MELTDOWN.

LONGSHOTS

#2 ESTILO TALENTOSO 12/1 – NOT A THREAT FOR THE TOP PRIZE BUT HAS HIT THE TOP 3 IN 16 OF 17 RACES AND 8 OUT OF 9 AT THE DISTANCE. SHE IS THE PRICE YOU NEED TO MAKE THE EXOTICS PAY.

 

DEL MAR RACE 5 – BC TURF SPRINT 5 FURLONGS TURF G1 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#3 GOLDEN PAL 7/2 – HAS PROVED AN ELUSIVE TARGET WINNING ALL 4 OF HIS U.S. TURF SPRINTS GATE TO WIRE AND USUALLY BY OPEN LENGTHS. HE WON THE BC JUVENILE TURF LAST YEAR AT KEENELAND. WESLEY WARD TRAINEE HAS HAD THE LEAD AT THE FIRST 3 CALLS IN ALL HIS RACES. COME CATCH HIM.

#2 EMARAATY ANA 5/1 – WON THE G1 BETFAIR SPRINT CUP 374K LAST OUT AT 6 FURLONGS BUT HAS WON AT 5 PANELS.  HIS PROBLEM WILL BE GIVNG THE TOP HORSE A BIG HEAD START EARLY. KEVIN RYAN TRAINS AND IS ALSO THE TRAINER OF GLASS SLIPPER WHO WAS THE FIRST EURO TO WIN THIS RACE IN LAST YEARS BREEDERS’ CUP.

#10 GEAR JOCKEY 5/1 – WON THE G3 TURF SPRINT LAST TIME AT KENTUCKY DOWNS AND WILL BE PROMINENT EARLY CHASING THE TOP HORSE.

#1 GLASS SLIPPER 6/1 – WON THIS RACE LAST YEAR COMING FROM TENTH EARLY. HAS THREE THIRDS SINCE IN TOUGH EURO TURF SPRINTS. DEFENDING CHAMP HAS TO BE RESPECTED TO REPEAT IF THE PACE FALLS APART.

#4 LIEUTENANT DAN 6/1 – HAS WON 3 OF LAST 4 TURF SPRINTS BUT ALL IN CALIFORNIA VS. G2 AND G3 AND STATE-BRED STAKES.

#9 KIMARI 6/1 – THE OTHER WESLEY WARD RUNNER WHOSE TURF SPRINT WINS CAME BACK IN 2019. DID FINISH SECOND IN G1 AT ROYAL ASCOT IN JUNE 2020 AT 6 FURLONGS. WON THE TOUGH GI MADISON LAST TIME AT KEENELAND IN A DIRT SPRINT. PACE MAY WORK AGAINST HER.

#6 A CASE OF YOU 8/1 – FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH THAT LED TO VICTORY IN THIS RACE BY GLASS SLIPPER, FINISHING IN FRONT OF THAT ONE IN HIS LAST 2. HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL AT THIS DISTANCE LAST PAIR AND WILL BE THE PRICE YOU NEED TO CASH A BIG TICKET IN HERE.

LONGSHOTS

#12 EXTRAVAGANT KID 12/1 – ONLY WIN IN LAST 10 RACES CAME AT DUBAI IN THE $1M AL QUOZ TURF SPRINT. SHE DOES HIT THE BOARD A LOT 27-7-10-4 AT THE DISTANCE. REACHER SUPREME FOR YOUR VERTICAL EXOTIC BETS.

 

DEL MAR RACE 6 – BC DIRT MILE 1 MILE G1 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#4 LIFE IS GOOD 4/5 – SURPRISED TO SEE 4/5 ON THIS GUY BUT AFTER SOME REFLECTION CAN UNDERSTAND THAT THE BELIEF IS HE WILL GET EARLY COMMAND VS. THESE AND COULD BE LONG GONE. HE WAS AN EARLY FAVORITE THIS YEAR ON THE TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL AND BEAT EVENTUAL KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER MEDINA SPIRIT SOUNDLY TWICE. ONLY LOSS FOR BAFFERT RUNNER CAME AT THE HANDS OF JACKIE’S WARRIOR IN A LIFE AND DEATH BATTLE IN THE G1 JERKENS AT SARATOGA IN HIS COMEBACK RACE.

#1 SILVER STATE 7/2 – REALLY LIKE THIS GUY, IMPRESSIVE 6 RACE WIN STREAK PEAKING WITH A G1 WIN IN THE MET MILE. NO APOLOGY NECESSARY FOR 6 LENGTH LOSS TO KNICKS GO AND MAXFIELD IN THE G1 WHITNEY AND LOOKED TO HAVE THE PARX MILE WON LAST TIME ONLY TO LOSE A HEAD BOB TO MIND CONTROL. CAN SEE THAT IT TAKES THIS GUY SOME TIME TO GET GOING AND THE TOP HORSE COULD BE A LONG WAY IN FRONT BY THEN.

#3 GINOBILI 4/1 – SURPRIZED IN THE G2 PAT O’BRIEN AT 7 FURLONGS LAST OUT AT DEL MAR BUT BASED ON HIS BODY OF WORK, THIS ONE SEEMS OVERMATCHED HERE.    

LONGSHOTS

#7 SNAPPY SINCLAIR 12/1 – HAS THE KNACK FOR HITTING THE BOARD WHEN LEAST EXPECTED. MAY BE THE PRICE YOU NEED TO MAKE THE EXOTICS PROFITABLE.

 

DEL MAR RACE 7 – BC FILLY AND MARE TURF 1 3/8 MILES TURF G1 $2,000,000

CONTENDERS

#7 WAR LIKE GODDESS 7/2 – INTRIGUING EDITION OF A RACE THAT IS USUALLY WON BY A PRICE AND QUITE OFTEN BY A EURO IMPORT. NOTHING WRONG WITH THE TEPID FAVORITE WHO HAS WON 6 OF 7 STARTS INCLUDING THE G1 FLOWER BOWL AT THIS UNIQUE 1 3/8 MILES DISTANCE AT SARATOGA LAST TIME. THAT IS THE THIRD TIME SHE HAS WON AT THIS EXACT DISTANCE. PROBLEM IS SHE IS IN AGAINST A BAND OF TALENTED EUROS FILLIES AND MARES. THE LAST TIME I CAN REMEMBER AN AMERICAN RUNNER LIKE THIS WHO WON THIS RACE WAS STEPHANIES KITTEN BACK IN 2015.  

#6 LOVE 4/1 – TRAINED BY AIDAN O’BRIEN. THIS FILLY HAS THE CREDENTIALS TO WIN HAVING WON FIVE 5 G1’S IN EUROPE INCLUDING THE PRINCE OF WALES AT ROYAL ASCOT THIS PAST JUNE AT 1 1/4 MILES. SHE HAS ALSO WON IMPRESSIVELY TWICE AT 1 1/2 MILES. WHILE SHE HAS LOST HER LAST 3, TWO OF THOSE WERE BEHIND CHAMPION MISHRIFF WHO WON BIG RACES IN SAUDI ARABIA AND DUBAI EARLIER THIS YEAR. SHE SEEMS LIKE THE ONE TO BEAT.

#8 LOVES ONLY YOU 4/1 – IS A RUNNER FROM JAPAN WHO HAS A BANKROLL OVER $5M. ONE BACK SHE WON A $3M RACE, THE QUEEN ELIZABETH II IN HONG KONG. SHE WAS A NARROWLY BEATEN THIRD IN THE DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC BEHIND MISHRIFF. THOSE RACES WERE AT 1 1/4 MILES AND 1 1/2 MILES BUT SHE ALSO OWNS A WIN A TODAY’S DISTANCE. HER LAST 4 EFFORTS HAVE BEEN OUTSTANDING.

#12 AUDARYA 5/1 – LAST YEAR’S WINNER OF THIS RACE AT 17-1 WHEN SHE UPSET RUSHING FALL. IS USING THE SAME TWO PREP RACES THIS YEAR AS SHE DID LAST YEAR AND MUST BE GIVEN A SOLID CHANCE TO REPEAT. SHE LOST THE G1 PRINCE OF WALES AT ROYAL ASCOT TO LOVE BY ONLY 3/4 OF A LENGTH AND WAS A CLOSE FOURTH LAST TIME IN THE PRIX DE L’OPERA BEHIND UPSET WINNER ROUGIR.

#4 ROUGIR 6/1 – WON THE PRIX DE L’OPERA BY A NOSE AT A BIG PRICE. SHE WAS ON A 6 RACE LOSING STREAK PRIOR TO THAT WIN, SO A REPEAT WOULD BE ANOTHER SURPRISE BUT SHE DOES DESERVE RESPECT AS THAT RACE, WHICH FOLLOWS THE “ARC”, HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SUCCESSFUL RUNNERS IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP.

LONGSHOTS

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DEL MAR RACE 8 – BC SPRINT  6 FURLONGS G1 $2,000,000

CONTENDERS

#2 JACKIE’S WARRIOR 6/5 – CLEARLY THE HORSE TO BEAT. HAS WON 7 OF 10 CAREER STARTS BUT 2 OF THOSE LOSSES WERE IN ROUTES. IN LAST 10 STARTS, HAS LED AT FIRST 2 CALLS IN 8 OF THEM AND LED TURNING FOR HOME 9 OF 10. HIS FRACTIONS ARE REAL RACEHORSE TIMES AND YOU BETTER HAVE YOUR SHOELACES TIED TIGHT WHEN YOU FACE OFF AGAINST HIM. VERY SIMILAR TO GAMINE IN MALE SPRINTS. THIS HORSE WANTS TO BEAT YOU.

#9 DR. SCHIVEL 4/1 – LOST HIS FIRST 2 STARTS AND HAS WON HIS LAST 5 IN A ROW INCLUDING THE G1 DEL MAR FUTURITY, THE G1 BING CROSBY AND THE G2 SANTA ANITA SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP LAST TIME. THAT LAST WIN WAS GATE TO WIRE BUT HE IS REALLY A STALKER WHICH IS TO THE TOP HORSE’S ADVANTAGE. THAT BEING SAID, HE WAS CLOSE UP ON THE PACE IN THE DEL MAR FUTURITY SO HE CAN ADAPT TO THE SITUATION. BELIEVE THE RACE IS DEFINITELY BETWEEN THE TOP 2.

#1 FOLLOWING SEA 6/1 – WON THE G2 VOSBURGH LAST TIME AT BELMONT ONE RACE AFTER FINISHING 9 LENGTHS BEHIND JACKIES WARRIOR AND LIFE IS GOOD IN THE G1 H ALLEN JERKENS. HE WILL HAVE TO IMPROVE A LOT TO COMPETE TODAY IN THIS RACE.

#8 SPECIAL RESERVE 6/1 – HAS WON 5 OF HIS LAST 7. HIS LAST WIN WAS IN THE G2 PHOENIX AT KEENELAND AND PRIOR TO THAT HE LOST BY HALF A LENGTH TO LONGSHOT LEXITONIAN IN THE G1 VANDERBILT AT SARATOGA. NICE HORSE BUT IN TOUGH.

#5 ALOHA WEST 8/1 – JUST MISSED BY A NECK VS. SPECIAL RESERVE LAST TIME IN THE G2 PHOENIX COMING FROM THE BACK OF THE PACK. TALL ORDER IN HERE.

LONGSHOTS

#3 CZ ROCKET 12/1 – HAS HIT THE TOP 3 IN ALL OF HIS LAST 10 STARTS. WAS SECOND BEHIND WHTMORE IN LAST YEAR’S BC SPRINT AND WON THE G2 SA SPRINT CHANPIONSHIP AND G2 PAT O’BRIEN HERE JUST PRIOR TO THAT RACE. HE SEEMS TO HAVE LOST A STEP A YEAR LATER BUT IS STILL A LONGSHOT THREAT UNDERNEATH IN YOUR EXOTICS.  

#7 LEXITONIAN 20/1 – POPS UP WHEN LEAST EXPECTED AND IS ALWAYS A PRICE. BEAT SPECIAL RESERVE IN THE G1 VANDERBILT AT 24-1 ONE BACK, WAS SECOND IN THE CHURCHILL DOWNS SPRINT AT 46-1 ON DERBY DAY AND ONLY MISSED BY A NOSE AT 8-1 IN DEL MAR’S G1 BING CROSBY LAST YEAR. DON’T FALL ASLEEP ON THIS GUY IN THE VERTICAL EXOTICS.

 

DEL MAR RACE 9 – BC MILE 1 MILE TURF $2,000,000

CONTENDERS

#3 SPACE BLUES 3/1 – DID NOT EXPECT THIS HORSE TO BE THE FAVORITE IN THIS RACE SINCE HE HAS NEVER GONE A MILE. BUT UPON FURTHER INSPECTION OF HIS RESUME, HE HAS WON 2 G1’S AT 6 1/2 AND 7 FURLONGS, INCLUDING HIS LAST RACE IN THE PRIX DE LA FORET AT LONGCHAMPS. AFTER WINNING 3 BC RACES LAST YEAR, FRENCH RACED RUNNERS HAVE SUDDENLY DISCOVERED THE GOLDMINE THAT IS THE BREEDERS’ CUP. THIS GUY ALSO WON THE TURF CUP ON THE NEW BIG STAKES CARD AT SAUDI ARABIA THIS PAST FEBRUARY. TRAINED BY CHARLIE APPLEBY FOR GOLDOPHIN, THIS RUNNER HAS WON 7 OF HIS LAST 10 AND SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE CHOICE FOR TOP PICK.

#6 MO FORZA 5/1 – IS AN AMERCAN BASED RUNNER WHO HAS WON 8 OF HIS LAST 9 RACES. HIS ONLY LOSS DURING THAT STREAK WAS IN THE PEGASUS WORLD TURF AT GULFSTREAM LAST JANUARY. MOST OF HIS WINS HAVE BEEN IN G2 AND G3 EVENTS BUT HE DID WIN THE G1 HOLLYWOOD DERBY HERE AT DEL MAR. WHAT IS IMPRESSIVE IS THIS STREAK HAS BEEN GOING SINCE SEPTEMBER 2019 DEMONSTRATING THE SKILL OF TRAINER PETER MILLER TO KEEP HIM SO SHARP FOR SO LONG. HE ALSO HAS 6 WINS IN 8 STARTS AT TODAY’S MILE DISTANCE.

#7 IN LOVE 8/1 – THIS HORSE IS TRAINED BY PAULO LOBO, WHO SPECIALIZES IN FINDING HORSES IN SOUTH AMERICA THAT HE TURN INTO STAKES WINNERS IN THE U.S. HIS PATIENCE HAS PAID OFF AS THIS ONE BECAME A STAKES WINNER IN HIS SEVENTH U.S. START ONE RACE BACK AT KENTUCKY DOWNS IN THE TVG 400K AND FOLLOWED THAT UP LAST TIME WITH A GRADE 1 WIN IN THE KEENELAND TURF MILE. HE IS PEAKING AT EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME.

#9 MOTHER EARTH 8/1 – THIS FILLY USUALLY PROMSES MORE THAN SHE DELIVERS. SHE HAS ONLY WON 2 G1’S IN HER LAST 10 START BUT HAS BEEN STAKES PLACED IN 7 OTHER G1’S INCLUDING LAST YEAR’S BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF COMING FROM TWELFTH TO GET SECOND BEHIND AUNT PEARL. AIDAN O’BRIEN TRAINS.

#10 BLOWOUT 8/1 – CHAD BROWN RUNNER ISN’T HIS USUAL TYPE OF DEEP CLOSER. BEING A SPEED DEMON, SHE HAS BEEN FIRST OR SECOND AT EVERY PRE-FINISH CALL IN HER LAST 10 BUT HAS ONLY WON 3 TIMES. TO HER CREDIT, IN ALL RACES VS. FEMALES, SHE HAS HUNG ON TO FINISH IN THE MONEY IN THE RACES SHE HAS LOST. SHE BECAME A G1 WINNER LAST TIME AT KEENELAND IN THE FIRST LADY. YOU KNOW WHERE SHE WILL BE EARLY. 

LONGSHOTS

#2 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT 10/1 – IS A VERY CONSISTENT CALIFORNIA TURF SPECIALIST WHO HAS FINISHED IN THE TOP 3 IN 9 STRAIGHT STAKES POSTING A G1 WIN IN THE SHOEMAKER MILE THIS YEAR. HER RECORD AT A MILE IS 9-4-4-0. SHOWS YOU WHAT A DEEP FIELD THIS IS. 

# 11 GOT STORMY 10/1 – WAS MY ORIGINAL PICK IN THIS RACE FOLLOWING HER G1 WIN VS THE BOYS IN THE 4STARDAVE AT SARATOGA. HER RECORD AT THE DISTANCE IS 20-10-5-2 WINNING $1.9M DOLLARS. SHE IS DEFINITELY WORTH STRONG CONSIDERATION IN THE EXOTICS.

 

DEL MAR RACE 10 – BC DISTAFF 1 1/8 MILES $2,000,000

CONTENDERS

#6 LETRUSKA 8/5 – THIS MARE HAS TURNED INTO TIGER. SHE HAD WON THREE G3’S AND SEEMED A USEFUL SORT AND THEN AFTER LOSING BY A HEAD TO SHEDARESTHEDEVIL IN THE G2 AZERI SHE HAS WON 5 STRAIGHT STAKES, FOUR OF THEM G1’S, AMONG THEM THE APPLE BLOSSOM, THE OGDEN PHIPPS, THE PERSONAL ENSIGN AND THE SPINSTER. IN ADDITION TO THAT, THEY HAVE BEEN AT 7 DIFFERENT TRACKS AND TODAY SHE WILL TRY TO MAKE DEL MAR NUMBER 8. SHE HAS SPEED TO BURN GOING GATE TO WIRE IN HER LAST 4 AND IN ALMOST EVERY RACE GOING TO THE FRONT AND IMPROVING FROM THERE. YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO RUN THE RACE OF YOUR LIFE IF YOU ARE GOING TO BEAT HER.

#3 MALATHAAT 4/1 – IS A REALLY GOOD FILLY WHO HAS ONLY LOST ONCE IN 7 STARTS AND THAT WAS BY A HEAD TO MARACUJA IN THE COACHING CLUB OAKS AT SARATOGA IN HER PREVIOUS RACE. SHE HAS WON 3 GI’S IN HER LAST 4 STARTS INCLUDING THE ASHLAND, THE KENTUCKY OAKS AND THE ALABAMA. SHE HAS WON TWICE AT TODAY’S DISTANCE AND HER LAST RACE AT 1 1/4 MILES. SHE IS BEST COMING FROM SLIGHTLY OFF THE PACE WHICH MEANS SHE MAY NEED SOME PACE HELP RUNNING WITH LETRUSKA EARLY. TODD PLETCHER TRAINS

#8 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL 4/1 – THIS IS THE HORSE THAT WILL BE CHALLENGING LETRUSKA EARLY AS THAT IS WHERE SHE DOES HER BEST RUNNING. THAT FRONT RUNNING TACTIC WORKED IN THE AZERI WHERE SHE WAS THE LAST HORSE TO BEAT LETRUSKA, BUT IT DIDN’T WORK IN THE OGDEN PHIPPS, THEIR LAST MEETING, WHERE LETRUSKA BEAT HER TO THE LEAD AND SHE HAD TO SETTLE FOR THIRD.  THIS FILLY WON THE G1 CLEMENT L HIRSCH HERE AT DEL MAR IN AUGUST, THE G1 LA TROIENNE AT CHURCHILL DOWNS IN APRIL AND THE G1 KENTUCKY OAKS IN SEPTEMBER OF 2020. THIS MAY WELL BE ONE OF THE BEST RENEWALS OF THE DISTAFF IN A LONG TIME AND MAYBE THE BEST RACE OF THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HER TRAINER BRAD COX HAS SEVERAL LIVE HORSES FOR THIS YEAR’S BREEDERS’ CUP INCLUDING THE TOP 2 FAVORITES IN THE CLASSIC.

#1 PRIVATE MISSION 8/1 – BOB BAFFERT TRAINEE IS 4 FOR 5 WINNING A G2 AND A G3 AT SANTA ANITA AND DEL MAR. PROBLEM FOR HER IS SHE ALSO LIKES THE LEAD MEANING A BATTLE WITH LETRUSKA AND SHEDARESTHEDEVIL.

#2 ROYAL FLAG 8/1 – IS CHAD BROWN’S CHARGE. LIKE PRIVATE MISSION SHE TOO HAS WON G2 AND G3 RACES BUT HASN’T BEEN THIS TOUGH A FIELD AND HAS TO COME FROM BEHIND. HARD TO LIKE HER CHANCES.

LONGSHOTS

#5 CLAIRIERE 12/1 – WON THE G1 COTILLION AT PARX LAST TIME BUT HAS FINISHED BEHIND MALATHAAT 3 TIMES. SHE’S A HARD TRIER WHO ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE CLOSE AT THE FINISH BUT THIS RACE IS LOADED WITH SOME PRETTY TOUGH LADIES.

 

DEL MAR RACE 11 – BC TURF 1 ½ MILES TURF $4,000,000

CONTENDERS

#13 TARNAWA 9/5 – THIS IS THE DEFENDING CHAMPION WINNING LAST YEAR AT KEENELAND. SHE WAS A GOOD THING IN THE BETTING AT 9/2. SHE HAS BEEN SECOND BEATEN LESS THAN A LENGTH IN THE G1 IRISH CHAMPIONS AND LAST TIME IN THE G1 ARC DE TRIOMPHE. SHE DRAWS POORLY BUT SINCE SHE IS A LATE RUNNER IT MIGHT NOT MATTER THAT MUCH. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT VISUALLY SHE DIDN’T SEEM TO BE CLOSING THAT WELL IN THE “ARC” LAST TIME BUT THE TRACK WAS HEAVY AND THAT WON’T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONE TO BEAT.

#3 DOMESTIC SPENDING 4/1 – IS THE BEST AMERICAN RUNNER IN THE FIELD WITH 3 CONSECUTIVE G1 WINS IN THE HOLLYWOOD DERBY AT DEL MAR, THE TURF CLASSIC AT CHURCHILL DOWNS AND THE MANHATTAN AT BELMONT. SHE ONLY MISSED BY A NECK IN THE G1 MR D LAST TIME AT ARLINGTON, THE REPLACEMENT FOR THE ARLINGTON MILLION. CHAD BROWN IS THE ONLY TRAINER TO WIN THIS RACE WITH AN AMERICAN HORSE, BRICKS AND MORTAR, IN THE LAST 6 RUNNINGS. EURO’S USUALLY OWN THIS RACE.

#12 TEONA 6/1 – WON THE G1 PRIX VERMEILLE 708K AT LONGCHAMPS AT TODAY’S DISTANCE LAST TIME BEATING AIDAN O’BRIENS SNOWFALL WHO WAS ON A 3 RACE WIN STREAK. TARNAWA WON THE SAME RACE LAST YEAR BEFORE SHE WON THE PRIX DE L’OPERA AND THEN WON THE BC TURF. THAT FACT ALONE MAKE HER A STRONG THREAT TODAY. SHE ALSO DRAWS POORLY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE MORE EARLY SPEED THAN TARNAWA AND MAY BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER RAIL EARLY IN THE RACE. BIG SHOT AT A SQUARE PRICE.

#7 WALTON STREET 8/1 – WAS FOURTH IN THE $5M SHEEMA CLASSIC AT DUBAI BEHIND MISHRIFF AND LOVES ONLY YOU IN MARCH. SHE THEN RAN THIRD IN A G1 IN GERMANY FOR A PURSE OF ONLY 180K. WHAT IS SIGNIFICANT IS SHE FINISHED RIGHT BEHIND TORQUATOR TASSO, WHO WOULD COME BACK AND UPSET IN THE ARC DE TRIOMPHE AT A HUGE PRICE. LAST TIME CHARLIE APPLEBY SHIPPED HIM TO WOODBINE WHERE HE WAS THE EASIEST KIND OF WINNER BY OVER 5 LENGTHS IN THE G1 CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL. INTERESTING PRICE POSSIBILITY.

#11 GUFO 8/1 – MADE A PREMATURE MOVE IN THE G1 TURF CLASSIC AT BEMONT LAST TIME TO GET THE LEAD, WHICH LEFT HIM WITH AN EMPTY TANK IN THE STRETCH AND HE FINISHED THIRD. WON THE G1 SWORD DANCER THE RACE PRIOR TO THAT AND ALSO THE G1 BELMONT DERBY IN OCTOBER 2020. HE ALSO HAD NEAR MISSES IN THE G1 MAN O WAR AND G1 HOLLYWOOD DERBY AT DEL MAR. HE IS OFTEN COMPROMISED BY HIS LATE RUNNING STYLE. THINK HE IS AN UNDERNEATH PLAY IN THE EXOTICS.

LONGSHOTS

#10 YIBIR 12/1 – CHARLIE APPLEBY (GODOLPHINS LEADING TRAINER) SHIPPED THIS GUY INTO BELMONT TO TAKE THE JOCKEY CLUB DERBY INVITATIONAL LAST OUT. IT APPEARS IT WAS A WEAK RACE AS HIS CREDENTIALS IN EUROPE WERE NOT THAT STRONG. CAN’T THROW OUT ANYTHING FROM THESE CONNECTIONS AS THEY HAVE HAS GREAT SUCCESS WITH SHIPPERS, BUT NOT CONVINCED HE IS THIS CALIBER. 

#2 UNITED 20/1 – IS A SOLID CALIFORNIA G2 AND G3 RUNNER. IF YOU LOOK AT HIS RESUME YOU WILL SEE AN EIGHTH PLACE FADE JOB IN LAST YEARS BC TURF. HOWEVER, WHAT IS NOT SHOWING IS HIS 40-1 NEAR UPSET OF BRICKS AND MORTAR IN 2019. LOOK IT UP. THEY MAY EVEN HAVE THE REPLAY ON YOU TUBE OR CERTAINLY THE BREEDERS’ CUP WEBSITE.

 

DEL MAR RACE 12 -BC CLASSIC 1 ¼ MILES $6,000,000

CONTENDERS

#5 KNICKS GO 5/2 – THIS RACE REMINDS ME OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY. IT SHOULD. THE FIRST, THIRD AND FOURTH PLACE FINSIHERS ARE BACK AT 1 1/4 MILES IN THE NEXT BIGGEST RACE OF THE YEAR. IN THE DERBY BRAD COX HAD 2 HORSES, THE FAVORITE ESSENTIAL QUALITY AND THE LIGHTLY REGARDED MANDALOUN. I BELIEVE THE LATTER WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A RABBIT FOR THE FAVORITE BUT THE WAY THE RACE UNFOLDED, THE SPEED HELD ON AND THE CLOSERS HOT ROAD CHARLIE AND ESSENTIAL QUALITY COULDN’T GET UP. MY VIEW IS THAT KNICKS GO IS IN HERE AS RABBIT FOR ESSENTIAL QUALITY BUT WILL WE SEE A SIMILAR RESULT AS THE DERBY? I AM NOT A KNICKS GO FAN. HE IS AN ALL OR NOTHING HORSE THAT ONLY WON THE BC DIRT MILE LAST YEAR AND A MEDIOCRE PEGASUS WORD CUP. BUT CAN YOU LEAVE HIM OUT? IF YOU DO, YOU RUN THE RISK OF WATCHING HIM WIN GATE TO WIRE ON A SPEED FAVORING TRACK. HOWEVER, IF HE DOESN’T CLEAR OR IF HE CAN’T GET THE DISTANCE, HE WON’T LIKELY HIT THE BOARD. THIS DILEMMA IS GOING TO COST VERTICAL EXOTICS BETTORS A LOT OF EXTRA MONEY.     

#4 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 3/1 – SHOULD BE THE FAVORITE. HE HAS ONLY LOST ONE RACE IN 9 CAREER STARTS AND THAT WAS THE KENTUCKY DERBY WHERE HE WAS BUMPED AT THE START, HAD A WIDE TRIP AND HAD NOTHING LEFT IN THE STRETCH. HIS BELMONT WIN WAS SWEET REVENGE AND JUSTIFICATION OF HIS CLAIM TO BE THE BEST HORSE OF HIS GENERATION. A WIN IN THE BC CLASSIC WOULD LIKELY MAKE HIM HORSE OF THE YEAR.

#3 HOT ROD CHARLIE 4/1 – HAS SHOWN GRIT AND DETERMINATION AND HE HAS THAT BLUE COLLAR FEEL ABOUT HIM THAT HE CONSISTENTLY OUTRUNS HIS NATURAL ABILITY. HE TOO GOT HIS DUE RESPECT WHEN HE FINISHED SECOND IN THE BELMONT STAKES.

#8 MEDINA SPIRIT 4/1 – HAS A CLOUD STILL HANGING OVEF HIS HEAD CONCERNING MEDICATION IN THE DERBY. INTERESTING THAT HE IS LIKELY TO BE THE ONE THAT WILL EITHER PUT A STAKE THROUGH KNICKS GO’S HEART OR LET HIM GET AN UNCONTESTED LEAD. BAFFERT IS CERTAINLY GOING TO LET HIM ROLL. HE SENT BODEMEISTER AND NEARLY WON THE DERBY AND SIMILAR TACTICS LED TO TWO TRIPLE CROWNS WITH AMERICAN PHAROAH AND JUSTIFY AND THE LAST 2 KENTUCKY DERBIES WITH AUTHENTIC AND MEDINA SPIRIT. I CAN SEE NO DOWNSIDE TO SENDING HIM. HE DOESN’T PASS HORSES, HIS ONLY CHANCE FOR GLORY IS TO CHALLENGE KNICKS GO EARLY AND HOPE THAT ONE GIVES IT UP THE FINAL QUARTER MILE LEAVING MEDINA SPIRIT IN A POSITION TO INHERIT THE LEAD AND ONCE AGAIN HOLD OFF HOT ROAD CHARLIE AND ESSENTIAL QUALITY.

#6 ART COLLECTOR 8/1 – COULDN’T HANDLE THE EARLY SPEED OF SWISS SKYDIVER AND AUTHENTIC IN LAST YEAR’S PREAKNESS OR KNICKS GO IN THE DIRT MILE LAST YEAR. HIS LAST WAS AN IMPRESSIVE WIN OVER MAXFIELD, BUT IN ORDER TO WIN HE WOULD HAVE TO OUTDUEL BOTH KNICKS GO AND MEDINA SPIRIT. 

#9 MAX PLAYER 8/1 – THERE IS A LOT OF CHATTER ABOUT THIS HORSE BUT HIS LAST TWO WERE AGAINST INFERIOR COMPANY IN NEW YORK.

LONGSHOTS

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