BREEDERS CUP 2021 AT DEL MAR ANALYSIS – FRIDAY 11-5-2021

[consensus Choice]

2021 BREEDERS’ CUP AT DEL MAR ANALYSIS

DAY 1 – FRIDAY NOVEMBER 5, 2021

ANALYSIS IN MORNING LINE ORDER (NOT ORDER OF PREFERENCE)

 

DEL MAR RACE 6 – BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT 5 FURLONGS TURF G2 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#8 AVERLY JANE 5/2 – IS 4 FOR 4 LIFE-TIME WITH WINS AT 4 ½, 5 AND 5 ½ FURLONGS. HER LAST RACE IN THE $200K INDIAN SUMMER AT KEENELAND WAS HER FIRST ON TURF AND SHE SAILED GATE TO WIRE TO WIN BY 3 OPEN LENGTHS. THAT WAS HER THIRD CONSECUTIVE STAKES WIN FOR WESLEY WARD WHO HAS A KNACK FOR DOMINATING WITH 2YO TURF RUNNERS.

#6 TWILIGHT GLEAMING 4/1 – ALSO TRAINED BY WESLEY WARD, SHE BROKE HER MAIDEN BY 7 AT BELMONT THREE BACK AND SHIPPED TO ROYAL ASCOT WHERE HE PROMPTLY FINISHED SECOND IN THE G2 QUEEN MARY STAKES. SHE THEN WENT TO FRANCE AND WON A HANDICAP. THIS EURO BRED WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FAVORITE ALL THE WAY AND PACKS A NICE 1-2 PUNCH FOR THE WARD BARN.

#9 ONE TIMER 4/1 – IS UNDFEATED IN THREE CAREER STARTS IN THESE SHORT DISTANCE WITH 2 STAKES WINS, THE 125K VICTORIA AT WOODBINE AND LAST TIME IN THE 100K SPEAKEASY AT SANTA ANITA. HE ALSO IS BLESSED WITH SPEED AND HAS NUMBERS THAT PUT HIM CLOSE TO THE TOP HORSE. THE RUNNER-UP, TIME TO PARTY, WHO ALSO IS IN THIS RACE, WAS CUTTING INTO HER SIZABLE ADVANTAGE LAST TIME IN THE STRETCH, WHILE THE TOP HORSE SIMPLY PULLS AWAY FROM HER COMPETITON THROUGHOUT.

#7 ARMOR 6/1 – IS A EURO INVADER WHO HAS WON TWICE AT THE DISTANCE, HIS LAST WIN A 102k G3 AT GOODWOOD. HE HAS LOST HER LAST THREE AGAINST STIFF COMPETITION AND COMES FROM MID-PACK WHICH MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CATCH THE EARLY SPEED.

LONGSHOTS

#2 KAUFYMAKER 12/1 – IS THE THIRD WESLEY WARD RUNNER IN HER AND JUST FINISHED SECOND BEHIND AVERLY JANE IN THE INDIAN SUMMER.  SHE COMES FROM MID-PACK BUT CERTAINLY IS A THREAT TO GIVE THE WARD BARN A COLD TRIFECTA.

 

DEL MAR RACE 7 – BC JUVENILE FILLIES 1 1/16 MILES G1 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#6 ECHO ZULU 4/5 – IS THE ODDS-ON PICK TO WIN THIS FOR RED-HOT STEVE ASMUSSEN. UNDEFEATED IN THREE STARTS, WINNING IN A DOMINATING FASHION IN ALL THREE. SHE HAS BACK TO BACK G1 WINS TAKING THE SPINAWAY AT SARATOGA BY 4 AND LAST TIME THE FRIZETTTE AT BELMONT BY 7. SHE HAS DOMINANT EARLY SPEED AND JUST PULLS AWAY FROM HER RIVALS.

#2 HIDDEN CONNECTION 5/2 – ALSO HAS 2 AUTHORITATIVE WINS IN HER 2 STARTS FOR BRET CALHOUN, BY 7 AND 9 LENGTHS. HER LAST WIN WAS IN THE G3 POCAHONTAS AT CHURCHILL DOWNS.

#5 JUJU’S MAP 5/2 – STEPPED UP FROM AN IMPRESSIVE MAIDEN WIN AT ELLIS PARK TO EASILY WIN THE G1 ALCIBADES STAKES AT KEENELAND LAST TIME FOR THE VERY SUCCESSFUL BRAD COX BARN. SHE IS A MAJOR PLAYER TODAY.

LONGSHOTS

#4 TARABI 12/1 – FINISHED SECOND BEHIND ECHO ZULU IN THE SPINAWAY ALTHOUGH NO THREAT IN THE LANE. STRETCHES OUT FOR THE FIRST TIME AND COULD FIND HER WAY INTO THE EXACTA OR TRIFECTA.

 

DEL MAR RACE 8 – BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF 1 MILE TURF G1 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#1 PIZZA BIANCA 5/1 – BROKE HER MAIDEN AT FIRST ASKING ON SARATOGA TURF AT 1 1/16 MILES AND SHIPPED TO WOODBINE TO FINISH SECOND AT A MILE ON THE TURF IN THE G1 NATALMA FOR CHRISTPHE CLEMENT. OWNER AND BREEDER AND CELEBRITY CHEF BOBBY FLAY HAS ENJOYED PREVIOUS BREEDERS’ CUP SUCCESS AND MAY DELIVER ANOTHER ONE TODAY. HOWEVER, HER 5/1 ODDS AS THE FAVORITE SHOW HOW WIDE OPEN THE MORNING LINE FEELS THIS RACE IS.

#9 KOALA PRINCESS 6/1 – HAS WON BOTH HER STARTS BUT IN TURF SPRINTS AT MONMOUTH AND KENTUCKY DOWNS. WOULD PREFER A RUNNER PROVEN AT A DISTANCE BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE TASK.

#13 MISE EN SCENE 6/1 – WON 2 TURF SPRINTS AT 7 FURLONGS IN EUROPE BUT FINISHED FOURTH IN HER FIRST ROUTE TRY. IT WAS A G1 RACE, BUT SHE WAS CLOSE UP EARLY AND DROPPED BACK.

#5 BUBBLE ROCK 8/1 – WON A G3 TURF SPRINT LAST TIME AT BELMONT FOR SUPER TRAINER BRAD COX.  IS ANOTHER ONE UNPROVEN IN A ROUTE.

#7 CONSUMER SPENDING 8/1 – IS A CHAD BROWN TRAINEE FOR HIS BIG CLIENT THE KLARAVICH STABLE. WON HER STAKES DEBUT AT LAUREL IN THE $150K SELIMA STAKES. IF IN ANOTHER BARN WOULD BE A LONGSHOT IN HERE BUT MUST RESPECT THE STABLE WILL HAVE HER READY FOR THIS. CHAD HAS WON SEVERAL PAST BREEDERS’ CUP RACES WITH HORSES WHO EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS.

#12 MALAVATH 8/1 – IS A FRENCH BASED TURF STAKES WINNER BUT AL OF HER RACES HAVE BEEN AT 6 FURLONGS. HARD TO GAUGE THESE TYPES CHANCES OF SUCCESS ON THE STRETCHOUT.

#14 CALIFORNIA ANGEL 8/1 – IS BY KENTUCKY DERBY CHAMPION CALIFORNIA CHROME AND WON THE G2 JESSAMINE AT KEENELAND LAST TIME IN AN AMAZING EFFORT RUNNING TWELFTH MOST OF THE RACE, EIGHTH AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH AND STILL GOT UP TO WIN AT 17-1. SHE ALSO CAME FROM LAST TO FIRST TO BREAK HER MAIDEN FIRST OUT ON THE KENTUCKY DOWNS TURF AT 28-1. TWO OUTSTANDING EFFORTS, IS A THIRD IN STORE TODAY AT ANOTHER LONGSHOT PRICE?

LONGSHOTS

#8 SAIL BY 20/1 – HORSE JUST WON THE G2 MS GRILLO AT BELMONT WHICH HAS LONG BEEN A KEY PREP RACE FOR THIS RACE. DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY SHE IS SUCH A BIG PRICE IN HERE. COULD BE THE MS. GRILLO WAS A WEAK RACE THIS YEAR, BUT I AM USING HER REGARDLESS.

DEL MAR RACE 9 – BC JUVENILE 1 1/16 MILES G1 $2,000,000

CONTENDERS

#1 JACK CHRISTOPHER 9/5 – IS THE REAL DEAL. USED TO BE EAST COAST HORSES WOULD STRUGGLE IN CALIFORNIA BUT THESE TRACKS HAVE CHANGED THEIR SURFACES TO BE MORE INVITING TO EASTERN INVADERS AND THE BREEDERS CUP. THAT BEING SAID “JACK” HAS WEST COAST TYPE OF SPEED. HIS FINAL TIME IN HIS DIRT WIN WAS 109.4, THE SAME AS HIS 6F CALL IN HIS ROUTE VICTORY IN THE G1 CHAMPAGNE.  HE HAS BLITZED HIS OPPONENTS IN BOTH STARTS AND IS TRAINED BY THAT MAN, CHAD BROWN.  SPEED HORSE DRAWS THE RAIL, SHOULD BE LONG GONE.

#12 CORNICHE 5/2 – BOB BAFFERT TRAINED SPEEDSTER IS POORLY DRAWN ON THE EXTREME OUTSIDE POST. HOWEVER, HE WON FROM THE OUTSIDE POST IN HIS PREVIOUS START. WON THE G1 AMERICAN PHAROAH AND BAFFERT ISN’T AFRAID TO SEND. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THESE CALIFORNIA PREP STAKES HAVE NOT PERFORMED WELL IN THE BREEDERS CUP IN THE PAST. WILL MAKE “JACK” EARN IT.

#10 COMMAND PERFORMANCE 5/1 – WAS SECOND BEHND THE FAVORITE IN THE G1 CHAMPAGNE AND IS STILL A MAIDEN. HIS RUNNING STYLE IS EITHER A DETRIMENT OR IF THE TOP TWO THROW IT DOWN EARLY COULD BE A BIG ADVANTAGE. I AM LOOKING FOR HIM PRIMARILY UNDERNEATH IN THE EXOTICS.

#9 PINEHURST 8/1 – ANOTHER QUICK BOB BAFFERT HORSE WHO WON THE G1 DEL MAR FUTURITY GATE TO WIRE. STRETCHES OUT TODAY AND IF ANYONE CAN SUCCEED WITH THIS MOVE IT IS BAFFERT.

LONGSHOTS

#4 PAPPACAP 15/1 – IS WELL DRAWN AND HIS DADDY IS CHAMPION GUN RUNNER. FINISHED SECOND BEHIND CORNICHE IN THE G1 AMERICAN PHAROAH BUT WASN’T THREATENING HIM THROUGHOUT. COULD GET A PIECE.

DEL MAR RACE 10 – BC JUVENILE TURF  1 MILE G1 $1,000,000

CONTENDERS

#14 DUBAWI LEGEND 4/1 – HAS BEEN SECOND AND THIRD IN TWO 7 FURLONGS RACES IN ENGLAND, THE LAST A G1 WORTH 700K. IS A CURIOUS CHOICE TO BE THE FAVORITE ESPECIALLY FROM SUCH A POOR POST.

#1 MODERN GAMES 5/1 – HAS WON 3 OF LAST 4 STARTS ALL AT 7 FURLONGS. HE GETS A RAIL DRAW WHICH SHOULD SUIT HIM PERFECTLY. HE LIKES TO RACE MID-PACK WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GROUND SAVING RIDE. CHARLIE APPLEBY IS GOLDOLPHIN’S LEAD TRAINER AND HAS DONE GREAT WITH EURO SHIPPERS.

#2 ALBAHR 6/1 – HAS A HUGE CLASS ADVANTAGE OFF HIS G1 WIN IN THE SUMMER SATKES AT WOODBINE WHEN HE SHIPPED IN FROM OVERSEAS. HE LOST HIS FIRST START BUT HAS WON HIS LAST FOUR.  MOST IMPORTANTLY TWO OF THOSE RACES WERE AT TODAY’S DISTANCE. SURPRISED HE IS NOT THE FAVORITE HERE. HIS ODDS OF 6/1 ARE VERY TEMPTING UNLESS HE IS BET DOWN. A GREAT OF EXAMPLE OF HOW DANGEROUS CHARLIE APPLEBY IS WITH EURO SHIPPERS.

#10 PORTFOLIO COMPANY 6/1 – CHAD BROWN RUNNER SECOND IN BOTH THE G3 WITH ANTICPIATION AND A NARROW DEFEAT IN THE G2 PILGRIM, A KEY RACE TRADITIONALLY FOR THIS RACE. ANOTHER KLARAVICH STABLES HORSE BUT HE SEEMS UNABLE TO SEAL THE DEAL FROM UP CLOSE EARLY. BEATEN BY COINAGE WHO IS IN THIS RACE, WHO WON THE WITH ANTICIAPTION GATE TO WIRE.

#3 DAKOTA GOLD 8/1 – UNDEFEATED IN TWO STARTS WINNING AT MONMOUTH IN A 500K RACE.

#4 TIZ THE BOMB 8/1 – HIS DADDY, HIT IT A BOMB, WON THIS RACE AS A DEEP CLOSING LONGSHOT A FEW YEARS BACK. THIS ONE HAS WON LAST 3 INCLUDING THE G2 BOURBON AT KEENELAND. LIKE HIS CLOSING STYLE BASED ON WHAT SHOULD BE A SPIRTED PACE UP FRONT.

#6 MACKINNON 8/1 – HAS WON 3 IN A ROW INCLUDING TWO CALIFORNIA PREP RACES WHCH SELDOM SPELL SUCCESS IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP.

LONGSHOTS

#11 GRAFTON STREET 15/1 – SECOND IN THE G1 SUMMER BEHIND ALBAHR.  COULD DEFINITELY BE A NICE PRICE UNDERNEATH IN THE EXOTIC BETS.

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