BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES RACES FOR FRIDAY 5-14-2021

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BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES RACES

MAY 14, 2021

 RACE 8 – ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF – 1 1/8 MILES (G3) $150,000

#5 HOROLOGIST (3/1) – SAT JUST OFF THE LEADER IN THE $100K TOP FLIGHT HANDICAP LAST TIME BEFORE OVERTAKING THE LEADER AND GETTING THE WIN. THAT RACE CAME OFF A 5 MONTH LAYOFF AFTER FINISHING A WELL BEATEN NINTH IN THE (G1) BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF.

THE REASON FOR HER FAVORITISM IS HER WIN LAST FALL IN THE (G2) BELDAME INVITATIONAL AT BELMONT AND HER THIRD IN THE G1 LA TROIENNE BEHIND CHAMPION MONOMOMY GIRL.

#4 GETRIDOFWHATAILESU (7/2) – THIRD IN THE G2 AZERI BEHIND LAST YEAR’S KY OAKS WINNER SHESARESTHEDEVIL AND NEXT OUT STAKES WINNER LETRUSKA, IN HER LAST START SHE WAS A WELL BEATEN FOURTH IN THE G1 APPLE BLOSSOM BY LETRUSKA, MONOMONY’S GIRL AND SWISS SKYDIVER. DON’T SEE ANY OF THOSE SUPERSTARS IN HERE. 

#3 SPICE IS NICE (7/2) – WAS SECOND IN FEBRUARY 2020 IN THE G2 DAVONA DALE AT GULFSTREAM BUT HER POOR EFFORTS IN THE G2 GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS AND THE G1 ALABAMA MAKE HER HARD TO LIKE BUT SHE WAS THRASHED IN BOTH OF THOSE RACES BY FILLY PHENOM AND PREAKNESS WINNER SWISS SKYDIVER.

#6 MRS. DANVERS (4/1) – WAS SECOND BEHIND THE TOP HORSE LAST BUT HER ONLY STAKES WIN WAS IN THE G3 COMELY AT AQUEDUCT. IN VS. A COUPLE OF PRETTY CLASSY GIRLS IN HERE.

#8 LUCKY STRIDE (6/1) – WAS THIRD LAST OUT BEHIND THE TOP HORSE AND HER ONLY SUCCESS SO FAR HAS BEEN IN NON-GRADED STAKES RACES.

#2 DREAMALILDREAMOFU (10/1) – SHIPS IS FROM TURFWAY OFF A WIN IN A NON-GRADED STAKES WHICH DOESN’T SEEM GOOD ENOUGH TO MAKE AN IMPRESSION HERE. HOWEVER, VISITANT HAD A SIMILAR PATTERN TWO WEEKS AGO ON THE DERBY UNDERCARD AND FINISHED SECOND AT 11/1. BEWARE!

BETTING SUMMARY – SEEMS LIKE HOROLOGIST AND GETRIDOFWHATAILESU STANDOUT BY THE COMPANY THE HAVE FACED. WOULDN’T BE SURPRIZED BY A WIN BY EITHER. THE FAVORITE WILL GET THE JUMP PRESSING THE PACE EARLY WHILE THE LATTER WILL BE STORMING HOME FROM BEHIND. TOO CLOSE TO CALL BETWEEN THE TWO.

RACE 9 – THE VERY ONE – 5F TURF $100,000

#11 DIXIEINCANDYLAND (3/1) – IS 13-4-3-3 ON THE TURF AND ALL BUT ONE OF THOSE RACES WAS AT OR ABOUT THIS DISTANCE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LACK OF STAKES SUCCESS ON HER RESUME.

#3 CARAVEL (7/2) – JUST FINISHED THIRD IN THE $100K LICENSE FEE STAKES AT 6 FURLONGS ON BELMONT TURF AND SHOULD APPRECIATE THE SHORTER DISTANCE HERE. SHE WON THE FIRST 2 RACES OF HER CAREER AT EXACTLY THIS DISTANCE AT PENN NATIONAL.

#9 CATCH A BID (4/1) – JUST MISSED BY A HEAD OF CATCHING THE TOP HORSE LAST OUT BUT IS ANOTHER WITH NO STAKES SUCCESS IN THIS KIND OF RACE.

#5 VICTORY KINGDOM (6/1) – JUST MISSED IN A $75K OVERNIGHT STAKES AT GULFSTREAM AT THIS DISTANCE FLYING LATE. SHE JUST MISSED GOING GATE TO WIRE IN A G3 ON WOODBINE’S ARTIFICIAL SURFACE WHICH IS OFTEN KIND TO TURF RUNNERS. ON THE DOWNSIDE, THERE ARE NO WINS SHOWING IN HER LAST 10 STARTS.

#6 QUEEN OF SHADES (8/1) – QUIT ON THE PACE VS. THE TOP HORSE LAST TIME, BUT SHE IS VERY FAST EARLY AND THESE TYPE OF HORSES MUST ALWAYS BE CAUGHT AND CAN OFTEN GET BRAVE ON THE LEAD.

#12 GOTTA GO MO (8/1) – HAS WON 3 STRAIGHT TURF SPRINTS BUT HAS NO STAKES EXPERIENCE.

BETTING SUMMARY – THESE NON-GRADED STAKES CAN BE VERY TRICKY TO PLAY SINCE IT IS OFTEN A STEPING STONE FOR THOSE WHO ARE STICKING THEIR TOES IN STAKES COMPANY FOR THE FIRST TIME. ONE WOULD THINK THAT CARAVEL MIGHT HOLD THE EDGE AND VICTORY KINGDOM COULD BE A COULD REACHER, BUT THESE TYPE OF RACES ARE USUALLY FULL OF SURPRISES.

RACE 10 – MISS PREAKNESS – 6 FURLONGS (G3) $150,000

#1 ABROGATE (7/2) – FOLDED HER TENT IN THE STRETCH OF THE G2 8BELLES FAILING TO REPEAT HER GOOD WIN IN THE $200K PURPLE MARTIN AT OAKLAWN. IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN DUE TO THE EXTRA FURLONG OR BECAUSE SHE DIDN’T BREAK AS SHARPLY AND WAS DONE AFTER TRYING TO OVERCOME HER SLOW START. WHICHEVER IT WAS, I EXPECT A MUCH BETTER EFFORT TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE RAIL.

#9 JOYFUL CADENCE (4/1) – JUST MISSED BY A HALF LENGTH BEHIND THE TOP HORSE IN THE PURPLE MARTIN AND SHOWED A HIGH CRUISING SPEED IN HER MAIDEN GOING INTO THAT RACE. BIG SHOT HERE.

#5 STREET LUTE (9/2) – IS A WIN MACHINE AT LAUREL WINNING 5 STRAIGHT AND AT DELWARE WHERE SHE WON TWICE. ALL BUT ONE OF THOSE RACES WERE IN NON-GRADED STAKES FOR ABOUT THIS PURSE VALUE. HER THIRD PLACE FINISH LAST TIME WAS AT A MILE. IN SPRINTS, SHE IS A NECK SHY OF BEING UNDEFEATED AND A WINNER OF HER FIRST 8 STARTS. SHE CAN ALSO RATE TUCKED IN RIGHT BEHIND THOSE THAT ONLY HAVE ONE WAY TO GO.

#2 RED GHOST (5/1) – IS 2 FOR 2 IN DIRT SPRINTS BUT TRIES A DIRT STAKES FOR THE FIRST TIME.

#7 INJECT (6/1) – HAS 3 GOOD RACES IN ALLOWANCE AND OPTIONAL CLAIMERS BUT NO SPRINT STAKES EFFORTS.

#8 EUPHORIC (6/1) – WAS DONE AFTER THE HALF OF THE G2 8BELLES, BUT WILL BE BATTLING FOR THE LEAD EARLY.

BETTING SUMMARY – WILL SIDE WITH THE TOP 2 FINISHERS IN THE PURPLE MARTIN AT OAKLAWN ABROGATE AND JOYFUL CADENCE BUT WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF THE LOCAL WIN MACHINE, STREET LUTE BEATS THEM BOTH.  

RACE 11 – HILLTOP STAKES – 1 MILE TURF $100,000

#5 BUBBLES ON ICE (7/2) – CLOSED TO GET UP IN HER U.S. DEBUT IN THE NON-GRADED $100K MEMORIES OF SILVER LAST MONTH. SHE IS NOW 2 FOR 2 AT OR ABOUT THIS DISTANCE.

#3 ALDA (5/1) – WAS A NARROW LOSER IN THE G1 NATALMA AT WOODBINE LAST SEPTEMBER AND THEN WAS SOUNDLY BEATEN IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF. SHE DIDN’T DO MUCH RUNNING IN HER COMEBACK SPRINT OFF A 6 MONTH LAYOFF. THE CONCERN IS THAT SHE HAD RUN WELL IN PREVIOUS TURF SPRINTS BUT GIVING HER THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THAT SHE CAN REPEAT HER NATALMA RUN TODAY.

#6 MIA MARTINA (5/1) – AFTER WINNING HER FIRST 2 STARTS IN A MAIDEN AND AN OPTIONAL CLAIMER, SHE WAS FOURTH IN THE TAMPA BAY FLORIDA OAKS AND WAS EASED ON THE DIRT IN THE G3 GAZELLE LAST TIME. HARD TO GAUGE HER CHANCES IN HERE.

#1 TRACY FLICK (6/1) – HAS RUN TWO STRONG MAIDEN RACES BUT WAS DISQUALIFIED FROM BOTH FOR BUMPING RIVALS IN THE STRETCH. TALENTED BUT CAN’T USE HER TODAY.

#2 SEASONS (8/1) – WAS THIRD IN THE G1 NATALMA BEHIND ALDA AFTER A POOR START; THAT WAS ONLY THE SECOND RACE OF HER CAREER AFTER BREAKING HER MAIDEN IN OBVIOUSLY A QUALITY FIELD AT SARATOGA. HASN’T STARTED IN 8 MONTHS FOR A TRAINER THAT DOESN’T HAVE A GOOD PERCENTAGE OFF A LAYOFF OF THIS TYPE, BUT I AM STILL USING HER.

BETTING SUMMARY – WHILE THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH SUPPORTING THE FAVORITE, BUBBLES ON ICE IN HERE, I AM GOING TO SIDE WITH ALDA AND SEASONS OFF THEIR IN-THE-MONEY FINISHES IN THE G1 NATALMA AT WOODBINE. I ALSO CANNOT THROW OUT MIA MARTINA WHO COULD PICK UP ALL THE MARBLES OFF HER BETTER THAT LOOKED FOURTH IN THE FLORIDA OAKS. WIDE OPEN RACE.   

RACE 12 – PIMLICO SPECIAL – 1 3/16 MILES (G3) $250,000

#2 FEARLESS (9/5) – COMES OFF BACK-TO-BACK BIG EFFORTS, A WIN AT GULFSTREAM IN THE (G2) GP MILE AND A NEAR MISS SECOND AT OAKLAWN IN THE (G2) OAKLAWN HANDICAP. THE LAST WAS JUST A 1/16 OF MILE SHORTER THAN TODAY’S DISTANCE AND THE DISTANCE SUITS HER RUNNING STYLE.

#11 LAST JUDGEMENT (4/1) – WENT GATE TO WIRE IS THE G3 CHALLENGER AT TAMPA BAY AND TRIED THE SAME TACTICS IN THE G3 GHOSTZAPPER AT GULFSTREAM BUT COULDN’T STAY WITH THE WINNER IN THE STRETCH AND WOUND UP SECOND BEATEN BY 5. SHOULD BE THE TARGET AGAIN.

#1 MODERNIST (6/1) – COULDN’T CATCH LAST JUDGEMENT IN THE CHALLENGER BUT PREVAILED IN HIS NEXT START IN THE G3 EXCELSIOR AT AQUEDUCT. PERHAPS HIS BEST RACES WERE AS A 3YO WINNING THE 2020 (G2) RISEN STAR AND FINISHING THIRD IN THE (G2) LOUISIANA DERBY.

#5 MAX PLAYER (12/1) – MADE NO IMPACT IN THE 2021 SAUDI CUP, OR LAST YEAR’S PREAKNESS OR KENTUCKY DERBY. HOWEVER, HE WAS THIRD IN THE G1 TRAVERS AND THE G1 BELMONT STAKES BEHIND CHAMPION TIZ THE LAW. QUESTION IS WHO SHOWS UP TODAY? THIS IS A (G3) SO CLASS MAY TELL.

BETTING SUMMARY – HARD RACE TO FIGURE. FEARLESS IS THE OBVIOUS CHOICE. MODERNIST ALWAYS SEEMS TO FIRE HIS BEST SHOT. NOT SURE WHAT TO DO WITH MAX PLAYER OFF HIS LAST THREE DULL EFFORTS IN TOP CLASS RACES. LAST JUDGEMENT MUST GO FROM THE OUTSIDE POST AND GET THE FEELING HE WILL GET CAUGHT AGAIN, ALTHOUGH UNCONTESTED SPEED IS ALWAYS DANGEROUS.

RACE 13 – BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES – 1 1/8 MILES (G2) $250.000

#10 BEAUTIFUL GIFT (9/5) – BAFFERT SEEMS TO HOLD THE ACES IN BOTH THE BLACK-EYES SUSAN AND THE PREAKNESS. JUST MISSED IN THE G2 SANTA ANITA OAKS AND BAFFERT HAS WON 4 KENTUCKY DERBY’S WITH RUNNERS WHO FINISHED SECOND IN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY. SAME PREP RACE PATTERN ON DISPLAY HERE.

#9 ADVENTURING (4/1) – BRAD COX AND GODOLPHIN LOOK FOR REDEMPTION FOR THE DERBY. WON THE $150K BOURBONETTE AT TURFWAY WHICH SEEMS AN UNLIKELY PATH TO SUCCESS IN HERE. HOWEVER, THESE TYPES ARE OFTEN VERY UNDERRATED IN THE BETTING AND AT LEAST SHE DID WIN LAST IMPRESSIVELY AND IS IN CAPABLE HANDS.

#8 THE GRASS IS BLUE (6/1/) – WAS FOURTH BEHIND ARMY WIFE IN THE G3 GAZELLE. THE WINNER OF THAT RACE ALSO TRAINED BY CHAD BROWN, WAS SEARCH RESULTS WHO GAVE MALATHAAT ALL SHE COULD HANDLE IN THE KENTUCKY OAKS.

#1 ARMY WIFE (8/1) – WAS A NON-THREATENING THIRD IN THE (G3) GAZELLE. THAT WAS HER FIRST STAKES TRY.

#6 ICED LATTE (8/1) – MAKES HER STAKES DEBUT FOR PLETCHER AFTER A MAIDEN WIN AND A SECOND IN AN OPTIONAL CLAIMER. THIS IS A FAMILIAR UPSET PATTERN BY PLETCHER SO EXPECT A GOOD EFFORT IN HER FIRST STAKES TRY AT A PRICE.

BETTING SUMMARY – BEAUTIFUL GIFT SEEMS TO HAVE THESE BY THE THROAT. EVERYONE ELSE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING FOR A MINOR AWARD.

 

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