BELMONT STAKES RACE ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 6-4-21 REVISED

[consensus Choice]

BELMONT GOLD CUP DAY STAKES RACES

JUNE 4, 2021

 

RACE 3 – TREMONT $150,000 5 1/2 FURLONGS

#6 LITTLE DRAMA (1/2) – DON’T NEED TO MAKE ANY EXCUSES FOR THIS ONE. HE DIDN’T MAKE ANY MISTAKES FIRST TIME OUT GOING GATE TO WIRE BY 5 OPEN LENGTHS HERE AT BELMONT MAY 16TH. HE WAS NO SURPRIZE THAT DAY FOR TRAINER ASMUSSEN GOING OFF AT 2/5 ODDS.

#3 OVERBORE (5/2) – HAS BEEN VERY UNLUCKY IN BOTH STARTS. HOPPED AND BOBBLED AT THE START IN HIS FIRST TRY AND CAME FLYING LATE TO FINISH THIRD BY 1/2 A LENGTH. IN HIS SECOND TRY HE BROKE ALERTLY IN A MAIDEN TURF RACE AND WAS ALWAYS ATTENDING THE PACE AND JUST GOT NAILED BY A NOSE ON THE WIRE. THIRD TIME THE CHARM FOR TOP 2YO TRAINER WESLEY WARD?

#4 TRUST OUR JOURNEY (8/1) – WAS NEVER HEADED IN HIS DEBUT WINNING AT 4 1/2 FURLONGS AT GULFSTREAM MAY 1ST. HE WAS NO SURPRISE EITHER SENT OFF AT 1/1.

BETTING SUMMARY – I HAVE NEVER CARED FOR GUESSING GAMES AND ESPECIALLY DON’T LIKE MAIDENS JUMPING INTO THE STAKES RANKS. THIS IS A PASS FOR ME.

 RACE 7 – TRU NORTH (G2) $300,000 6 1/2 FURLONGS

#1 FIRENZE FIRE (2/1) – IS ALWAYS A WIN THREAT AND COMES OFF AN IMPRESSIVE WIN HERE LAST TIME IN THE G3 RUNHAPPY AT 6 FURLONGS. HE WON THIS RACE LAST JUNE. HAS 13 LIFETIME WINS, 40% OF HIS RACES AND SIX WINS AT BELMONT.

#2 FLAGSTAFF (5/2) – HAS WON TWO IN A ROW, THE G3 COMMONWEALTH AT KEENELAND AND THE G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS SPRINT. THOSE 2 IMPRESSIVE SCORES CAME AFTER 6 STRAIGHT LOSSES PRIOR TO HIS PREVIOUS SCORE IN THE G2 SAN CARLOS AT SANTA ANITA. ONE CAUTION IS THAT ALL 3 OF THOSE WINS WERE ARE 7 FURLONGS.

#5 LOOKING AT BIKINIS (7/2) –HIS SPRINT SUCCESS HAS NOT COME IN STAKES RACES

#6 WICKED TRICK (6/1) – WAS A NON-THREATNING FOURTH BEHIND THE FIRENZE FIRE BUT HASN’T HAS SPRINT SUCCESS VS. THIS KIND.

#7 PHAT MAN (6/1) – SHOWS SOME SUCCESS AT A MILE OR MORE BUT HASN’T HAD THE SAME LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE SPRINTING ALTHOUGH HE WAS FIFTH ONLY BEATEN A LENGTH BEHIND FLAGSTAFF LAST TIME. NOT EXPECTING HIM TO SHOW MUCH IN TODAY IN THIS SPOT.

#4 AMERICAN POWER (8/1) – HAS BECOME A WIN MACHINE SCORING IN 4 OF HIS LAST 5. ALSO, WON THE G3 TOBOGGAN IN JANUARY AT AQUEDUCT.

BETTING SUMMARY – RACE SEEMS TO BE FIRENZE FIRE’S TO LOSE. FLAGSTAFF IS HIS MAIN COMPETITION AND IS ALWAYS RIGHT THERE. HE SEEMS TO FAVOR 7 FURLONGS BUT WOULDN’T BE SURPRIZED IF HE WINS IN HIS CURRENT SUPER SHARP FORM. AMERICAN POWER IS AN INTERESTING PRICE PLAY OFF HIS SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN HIS LAST 5 STARTS.

 RACE 8 – BED O’ ROSES (G3) – $300,000 7 FURLONGS

#6 CHUB WAGON (9/5) – IS UNDEFEATED IN 6 LIFETIME STARTS BY BIG MARGINS. SHE DID SHOW SHE COULD RATE SLIGHTLY LAST TIME, A GOOD SIGN AS HER FIRST 5 STARTS WERE ALL GATE TO WIRE. SHE GETS A BIG CLASS TEST TODAY AS ALL OF HER WINS BUT ONE HAVE BEEN AT PARX OR PIMLICO. SHE DID WIN AT AQUEDUCT BUT ONLY IN AN OPTIONAL $62.5K.

#5 VICTIM OF LOVE (7/2) – WON THE G3 VAGRANCY HERE 4 WEEKS AGO AT BELMONT AND WAS THIRD BEHIND CHAMPIONS SERENGETTI EMPRESS AND BELAFINA IN THE G1 BALLERINA LAST AUGUST AT SARATOGA. SHE ALSO WON THE G3 VAGRANCY LAST YEAR AND WAS SECOND IN THE G3 BARBARA FRITCHIE, ONE OF LAUREL’S PREMIER STAKES RACES.

#8 ESTILO TALENTOSO (9/2) – HASN’T FAILED TO FINISH IN THE TOP 3 IN ALL 13 STARTS, (13-2-8-3). HOWEVER, SHE ONLY HAS 2 WINS. HIS LAST THREE HAVE BEEN IN STAKES COMPANY WITH A SECOND IN THE G3 BARABARA FRITCHIE AT LAUREL, A DEADHEAT FOR SECOND IN THE G1 MADISON AT KEENELAND AND THIRD IN A CHURCHILL G1 BEHIND THE LIKES OF GAMINE AND SCONSIN. THE LATTER CAME BACK TO WIN. DON’T LEAVE HIM OUT UNDERNEATH.

#7 PACIFIC GALE (5/1) – WON THE G2 INSIDE INFORMATION AND THE G3 HURRICANE BERTIE BOTH AT GULFSTREAM IN HER PREVIOUS RACES BEFORE RUNNING THIRD LAST TIME BEHIND VICTIM OF LOVE IN THE G3 VAGRANCY. SHE WAS UNPREPARED FOR THE START AND BROKE SLOW SO SHE MAY HAVE HAD A LEGITIMATE EXCUSE LAST TIME.

#1 LAKE AVENUE (6/1) – IS UNPROVEN IN SPRINT STAKES. SHE DID WIN THE G2 DEMOISELLE AS A 2YO BUT THAT WAS 1 1/8 MILES. SHE DID WIN A NON-RESTRICTED STAKES AT A ONE TURN MILE ONE BACK AT AQUEDUCT.

BETTING SUMMARY – WHILE CHUB WAGON MAY GO FAVORED, I AM FIRMLY IN VICTIM OF LOVE’S CORNER. PACIFIC GALE SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST CHALLENGER TO THAT ONE. ESTILILO TALENTOSO DOESN’T WIN BUT IS ALWAYS IN THE MONEY AND VS. TOP COMPANY IN HER LAST 3 STARTS.   

RACE 9 – NEW YORK (G2) $750,000 1 1/4 MILES TURF

#5 HARVEY’S LIL GOIL (3/1) – WHAT IS NOT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS GOIL?  SHE HAS BEEN AWESOME. WINNING THE G3 REGRET AT CHURCHILL, JUST GETTING NAILED ON THE MONEY AT A 16TH OF A MILE FARTHER AT KENTUCKY DOWNS, WINNING THE G1 QEII AT KEENELAND, JUST MISSING BY A NECK IN THE G1 BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF AND WINNING THE G3 BEAUGAY LAST TIME HERE AT BELMONT. SHE IS USUALLY RIGHT THERE SITTING IN THE CAT BIRD SEAT BEFORE POUNCING.

#7 MEAN MARY (9/2) – IS ALL BUSINESS AND IF ALLOWED AN EASY LEAD SHE IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RUN DOWN IN THE STRETCH. SHE WON THIS SAME RACE LAST JUNE BY 5 OPEN LENGTHS. SHE IS A WIN MACHINE LIFETIME 10-6-2-0. COME CATCH HER.

#1 MAGIC ATTITUDE (6/1) – MADE AN AUSPICIOUS DEBUT WINNING THE G1 BELMONT OAKS INVITATIONAL AT TODAY’S DISTANCE. SHE WAS THIRD BEHIND HARVEY’S LIL GOIL IN THE G1 QEII AT KEENELAND AND WAS IMPRESSIVE LAST TIME WINNING BY 3 IN THE SHEPHERDS BAY. A MAJOR THREAT HERE.

#9 THUNDERING NIGHTS (6/1) – IS ANOTHER SHARP EURO SHIPPER FROM THE JOSEPH O’BRIEN STABLE AND I AM ALWAYS MORE CONCERNED WITH O’BRIEN HORSES AT A PRICE THAN THE “SURE THINGS” THEY SEND OVER. JOHNNY V. RIDES. SHE LIKES THE DISTANCE AS WELL.

#12 ALWAYS SHOPPING (8/1) – IS BETTER AT LONGER DISTANCES WHERE THE PACE IS SOFTER. SHE HAS ALSO DONE BETTER IN G3 RACES. STILL, SHE IS ALWAYS RIGHT THERE

#6 CIVIL UNION (12/1) – WON THE G1 FLOWER BOWL AT EXACTLY THIS DISTANCE LAST FALL BUT HASN’T BEEN ABLE TO DUPLICATE THAT FORM IN HER LAST 2 AND HAS FINISHED 5TH BEHIND HARVEY’S LIL GOIL IN BOTH RACES.

#4 MY SISTER NAT (15/1) – FINISHED SECOND BEHIND CIVIL UNION IN BOTH THE G2 GLEN FALLS AND THE G1 FLOWER BOWL BUT HAS TAILED OFF IN HER LAST 2.

BETTING SUMMARY – THIS IS THE BEST AND DEEPEST RACES ON FRIDAY’S CARD. MEAN MARY LIKES TO LEAD AND HARVEY’S LIL GOIL LIKES TO STALK THE LEADER IN SECOND. MAGIC ATTITUDE WON A G1 HERE IN HER FIRST RACE IS THE U.S. AND THE O’BRIEN SHIPPER THUNDERING NIGHTS IS A STOUT THREAT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST EXCITING RACE OF THE DAY AND MAY BE THE MOST PROFITABLE IF THE TWO LONGER PRICES CAN UPSET THE TOP TWO FAVORITES.

 RACE 10 – BELMONT GOLD CUP – (G2) $400,000 2 MILES TURF

#8 BARON SAMEDI (8/5) – AFTER NOT HITTING THE BOARD IN HIS FIRST 5 STARTS, THIS HORSE HAS WON 6 STRAIGHT RACES AND SHIPS IN FROM IRELAND FOR THE JOSEPH O’BRIEN STABLE (AIDAN’S SON) AND AGAIN THE STABLE EMPLOYS JOHNNY V. HIS LAST 2 RACES REALLY CATCH THE EYE. WINNING A G2 IN FRANCE AND WINNING AT 1 3/4 MILES LAST TIME. IN A FIELD OF QUESTIONABLE RUNNERS THIS ONE REALLY STANDS OUT.

#2 TIDE OF THE SEA (7/2) – WON THE G3 WL MCKNIGHT AT 1 1/2 MILES ON TURF 3 BACK AND FOLLOWED THAT WITH A NEAR MISS SECOND IN THE G2 MAC DIARMIDA, BOTH AT GULFSTREAM. HE WAS BEATEN 20 LENGTHS IN A FADE JOB LAST TIME IN THE G2 ELKHORN AT KEENELAND IN APRIL. SHOWS THAT WHAT HAPPENS AT GULFSTREAM OFTEN STAYS AT GULFSTREAM. TOUGH CALL.

#3 ZIYAD (5/1) – IS YET TO WIN IN THREE U.S. TRIES. HE DID FINISH THIRD IN THE G3 SYCAMORE AT KEENELAND LAST OCTOBER AND JUST MISSED, FINISHING SECOND, IN THE G3 RED SMITH AT AQUEDUCT. HE FINISHED SIXTH IN THE G1 MAN O WAR LAST OUT AT BELMONT. HE WAS A G2 WINNER IN FRANCE BUT THAT WAS 2 YEARS AGO. I’LL JUMP ON HIS BANDWAGON ONCE I SEE HIM CROSS THE FINISH LINE FIRST. AT LEAST IN HIS FAVOR IS HE HAS WON AT 1 9/16 MILES.

#5 FANTASIOSO (8/1) – HAS FAILED IN 2 TURF TRIES SINCE SHIPPING TO THE STATES FROM ARGENTINA. ANOTHER DEEP CLOSER WHO GETS CLOSE AT THE FINISH BUT SO FAR, NO CIGAR.

#9 AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM (8/1) – IS WINLESS IS HIS LAST 10 STARTS BUT DID FINISH SECOND IN THE G3 JB CONLEY AT 1 1/2 MILES ON TURF AT SAM HOUSTON. HE IS A DEEP CLOSER WHICH EXPLAINS HIS CLOSE FINISHES BUT LACK OF WINS.

BETTING SUMMARY – I AM VERY INTERESTED TO SEE BARON SAMEDI RUN AND LIKE HIS CHANCES GIVEN HIS COMPETITION. THAT BEING SAID, I PREFER EURO’S THAT ARE OFFERING MORE VALUE. I’LL WATCH THE RACE AND GET READY FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY OF RACING ON BELMONT STAKES DAY SATURDAY.

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