Belmont Stakes Day Best Selections

[Beth Donahue-Steward]

BELMONT BETH’S BELMONT STAKES DAY REPORT

Race 1
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Purse $90,000 6F (Turf)
The history of a 6F Maiden Turf is pretty non-existent. From 2018 to 2020 the first race has alternated between Dirt and Turf going 8F & 8.5F. In 2021 it was a 5.5F Dirt and last year it was a 80K Allowance going 6F turf. So no long history of results here. Last year was the first upset victory for the 1st race since 2015. The winner went on at 14-1. previous years it was all CHALK 2-5, 5-2, 2-1 and 8-5 winners.

I expect #7 Spun Special 8-1 to get out fast and set a fast pace with #6 Quiescent 15-1 following and the #4 Oolong Hai to be followed, if so, … this pace can NOT be sustained! The strong closers are #3 Roman Goddess 12-1 and the FAV #9 Love to shop 5-2 owned by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable and this group is a consist turf winner at Belmont, and the #9 Love could snap every horse at the wire with that closing speed. On a side note: I’m a BIG FAN of Klaravich Stables, with Chad Brown using jockey Irad Ortiz and he is on the #5 Accept the Outcome after watching the past two races, the horse tires because Ortiz gets him to the front and burns the horse up.

MY PICK
1st #9 Love to shop 5-2
2nd #3 Roman Goddess 12-1
3rd #6 Quiescent 15-1 / #7 Spun Special 8-1

Race 2
ALLOWANCE Purse $80,000 7F (Turf)
This is the first of three 7F races (1-on-turf and 2-on-dirt). The #3 Sikum 10-1 has had issues out the gate and in large fields with traffic, however, the horse has GREAT closing speed that can not be overlooked. The downside is the horse has never raced to 7F, only 6F. The horse shows there’s more in the tank and his 6F times have been 1.08 and 1.09…that’s blazing fast. The same is true for #4 Weekend Rags 3-1, big fields and has never raced 7F and again blazing 1.08 speed. The wildcard in this race is #5 U Should Be Dancing 8-1 a horse that easily won at 6F with a 1.07 and a horse that nailed a 7F at 1.21 and was edged out by a head. The horse is a closer, so if it’s a fast pace, this horse will eat up the competition. The horse that will set the pace should be #7 Royal Dancer 12-1, this horse should get to the front and stay there and then fade about 100ft to the finish,OR he could win if no other horse keeps pace. As a replacement, I would use #3 Sikum 10-1 because the horse is used to racing 1-mile TURF and is a strong closer. I will take the gate to wire finish by #7 Royal dancer

MY PICK
1st #7 Royal dancer 12-1
2nd #4 Weekend rags 3-1
3rd #5 U Should Be Dancing 8-1 / #3 Sikum 10-1

Race 3
True North Stakes. (Grade II) Purse $250,000 6.5F Dirt
This is our first Stakes race of the day. The True North Stakes is traditionally on Friday before Belmont Stakes Day and normally the 8th race on the card. Since 2018 EVERY race has been won by the post time FAV …and 4 of the 5 races have been won by the ML Fav. The only change was the 2018 winner (Imperial Hint) which was 9-2 ML AND by post time, turned into the FAV at 8-5. The 3rd place horse has been at double digit odds all 5-years at 11-1 or higher at post time. Last year’s race between Jackie’s Warrior and Baby Yoda turned into big payouts behind Jackie the 1-5 winner. (5-1) for 2nd and (60-1) for third.

This is just a six horse field, like last year you have two great horses and only one can win. Going with past trends and Taking the 4-5 FAV #4 Elite Power, he has 6-wins-in-a-row against GREAT competition and the WINS have come at 6F, 7F and 1-Mile! My two coming in 2nd and 3rd are #1 Today’s Flavor (5-1) and #3 Anarchist (10-1). #1 Today’s Flavor can win with a 1.23 at 7F and #3 Anarchist has hit a BLAZING 1.15 at
6 1/2 F

MY PICK
1st #4 Elite Power 4-5
2nd #1 Today’s Flavor 5-1
3rd #3 Anarchist 10-1

Race 4
Allowance Race for $95K going 7F on Dirt
This 4th race may be a race with some good prices. As it sits now, the LOWEST price on the board is 4-1.
#1 American Law (4-1) is one of three horses that can hit 1:10 at 6F and one of three horses in the race that can hit 1:23 at 7F. The other two speedsters are #7 Life Changer (7-2) and #10 Luni Sima (8-1) The #9 Twelfth Man (6-1) will be my replacement if any of those three get scratched.

MY PICK
1st #1 American Law 4-1
2nd #7 Life Changer 7-2
3rd #10 Luni Sima 8-1

Race 5
Poker Stakes (Grade III) Purse $200,000 8F Turf
The Poker Stakes was held last year on June 18 and has been held a week or two after the Belmont Stakes day. Other than the 2022 race, which had a post time 3-5 winner, all other races have had BIG payouts and NO FAV’s winning this race. With that being said, I just can’t see an upset winner in today’s race.

There is NO DOUBT that if #8 Bourbon Calling 8-5 is allowed to run he wins this race by 10-lengths HOWEVER he is listed as MTO..The #1 Chez Pierre 4-5 at 1-1 the ML FAV had a masterful performance back in April at Keeneland AND Flavien Prat was masterfull being patient and waiting for the moment to strike and WIN..I expect the same results in this race. SIDE NOTE watch the reply of this race as they put the last horse in the gate..WATCH the the odds on (#3 Chez Pierre) go from 24-1 to 11-1 as soon as the gate opens! Then halfway through the race his odds drop again to 9-1. JUST FYI he set the Makers Mark 1-mile stakes record with a Finish time of 1:33.4. The Brazilian Horse, #7 Filo Di Arianna at 4-1 would be a good 2nd or 3rd place horse, she was never pushed in the 1-mile stakes race at Woodbine, the horse will get to the front, that where she likes to run, AND she may set a slow pace, which will favor #1 “Shay” BUT the reality is; “Shay” should go off at 1-9 which will explode every horse’s odds in this race. The wild card in this race is the #2 Emaraaty 6-1. The horse PROVED it can get a SUPER HOT FINISH TIME of 1:32 at Belmont, which is 1-second faster than #1 Chez Pierre, AND you know how Saez is on longshots, I have to put this horse in the mix. SO it’s best to just SINGLE the #1 here for the Pick 3, 4 and 5 selections. My backup if any get scratched is #3 Mackinnon 15-1 Because – the horse is an American Pharoah Sire

MY PICK
1st #1 Chez Pierre 4-5
2nd #2 Emaraaty 6-1
3rd #7 Filo Di Arianna 4-1 / #3 Mackinnon 15-1

RACE 6
Brooklyn Stakes. (Grade II) Purse $250,000 12F Dirt
In the last five years (2022-2018) the ML FAV or the post time FAV has NOT won this race. The winners have been horses with 3-1 or 4-1 Morning line odds. The ML FAV has finished 2nd 3-times, finished 3rd and in 2020 did not place. The #7 Warrant (5-2) is the ML fav in this race AND the the 3-1 ML Fav is #5 Next and the 4-1 ML Fav is #4 Bright Future.

I have a WARNING the #6 Forewarned 20-1 (no pun intended) is owned and trained by Uriah St. Lewis. 90% of his horses race at Parx, then the rest between NYRA tracks and Finger Lakes. ” I’m just saying” ….NOT accusing anyone, …but St. Lewis’ horses always seem to be 20-1 to 100-1 when they win AND it happens a lot at Parx AND his horses stable is sometimes littered with sharp pointy objects and the horses seem to run better after these objects are found…again just saying! In this race. Last year, the finish order was: Fearless / Warrant / Lone Rock and Warrant and Lone Rock are back again this year. Fearless was owned by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable and Trained by Todd Pletcher and Saez was on the mount. Warrant had a VERY Strong late close for 2nd edging out the fading Lone Rock. These long distance races are tough to handicap because they go very slow until the last 2F and then they start to race. Most of the time the horses are all bunched up and close until the final turn. With that being said….I like the #4 Bright Future at 4-1, with the team of Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. They won the race last year! I like #5 Next 3-1 because he’s raced this distance and longer. Lastly, I have to go with the FAV #7 Warrant (5-2). I will be keeping an eye on the #6 Forewarned at 20-1 and I might throw $2 on him to win.

MY PICK
1st #4 Bright Future at 4-1
2nd #7 Warrant 5-2
3rd #5 Next 3-1 / #6 Forewarned 20-1

RACE 7
Ogden Phipps Stakes Purse $500,000 8.5F Dirt
Beside the Belmont Stakes, this race is one of the most predictable and has the Chalk winning almost EVERY YEAR. It’s a no brainer I’m taking #6 Clairiere (Clair-E-Air) 7-2, #4 Secret Oath 4-1 and #2 Search Results 5-1 in THAT ORDER. I love horses that run together, and these three horses seem to find themselves in almost every race and YES they run as friends!

MY PICK
1st #6 Clairiere 7-2
2nd #4 Secret Oath 4-1
3rd #2 Search Results 5-1

Race 8
Woody Stephens Stakes (Grade I) Purse $400,000 7F Dirt
In the last 5-years 2022 had its first ML Fav win. Before last year, the best FAV finish was 2nd in 2021 other than those two finishes, the FAV has never placed! Jose Ortiz has won this race the last two years, riding Jack Christopher 2022 BTW Jack set a record winning by 10 lengths, and in 2021 Ortiz riding Drain the Clock. This year Jose is on #5 Arman at 30-1. For this race a horse will need a 1:21 or lower at 7F to win this race. Only a handful of times in the history of this Stakes race has there been a winner with a 1:22.

I looked for a horse that can hit 1:21, I see #6 Harrodsburg 12-1 and #7 Federal Judge 8-1 with a 1:16 at 6.5F. The wild card is #10 Dark Vector 30-1 This horse had a 1:24 in a 90K Maiden and won by 10-lengths AND pretty much walked the last three furlongs, AND he looked like a ton of gas ready to burn. Does that sound familiar to last year’s race? For my backup IF horses get scratch, I’ll grab #3 Arabian Lion 4-1, because the last time he raced a 7F he hit 1:22

MY PICK
1st #10 Dark Vector 30-1
2nd #6 Harrodsburg 12-1
3rd #7 Federal Judge 8-1 / #3 Arabian Lion 4-1

RACE 9 Jaipur Stakes (Grade I)
Purse $400,000 6F Turf
You will not get what you expect in this race, you never do! This race is all over the board year after year. In 2017, Disco Partner won the race with a 1:05.67 (2017) new world record! The last two years the race was won by Casa Creed owned by LRE Racing & JEH Racing Stable and trained by William I. Mott. Just a heads up! #11 Casa Creed 9-2 is shooting for 3-wins. LOOKING OVER THE WHOLE FIELD, of 16 horses, I have narrowed it down to 6-horses that can hit 1:07 or better for 6F TURF. I will not use time from the 6F Downhill at Santa Anita or the Kentucky Downs “downhill track” ; those numbers are so misleading. I went with #11 Casa Creed 9-2, #9 Nothing Better 8-1, #8 Arrest Me Red 6-1, and #12 Caravel 3-1 and longshots #1 Yes and Yes 20-1 and #7 Thin White Duke 30-1. Of those six horse, the fast finish time came from #9 Nothing Better with a 1:06.8, and that was at Aqueduct. The most experience horse is #11 Casa Creed and the most potential is #12 Caravel.
MY PICK
1st #11 Casa Creed 9-2
2nd #9 Nothing Better 8-1
3rd #12 Caravel 3-1 / #7 Thin White Duke 30-1

Race 10 Metropolitan Handicap (Grade I)
Purse $1,000,000 8F Dirt
In the last four years (2018, 2019, 2021, & 2022) the ML FAV or the post time FAV finished this race 1st or 2nd. The only year the ML FAV did not finish ITM was 2021 with Knicks Go finishing 4th. This race was not run during the 2020 Covid year. Last year was the only year that the winning horse did not have odds higher than 3-1. I hate taking the favorite, however, when it looks like it will be a clear winner, I cannot discount that. The #1 Cody’s Wish 7-5 with Junior on the mount, Bill Mott trainer, and owner Godolphin is a force to be reckoned with. The #7 Repo Rocks 4-1 is just as good and beat out #6 Zandon 5-1 last time out at Belmont last month by 5+ lengths. Now, I think there may be a Wildcard in this bunch, the #3 Dr. Schivel 10-1. This horse has only raced two races this year and last year. However, both times it finished ITM. I think the long break from Dec. ‘21 to Mar. ‘22 to May ‘23 may have done this horse some good. I am not completely throwing out #9 White Abrarrio 10-1, however, I think this horse may have run its course. White has not been doing so well as of late so I will throw him in at the backend and use him only for Pick 3’s, 4’s, etc.

MY PICK
1st #1 Cody’s Wish 7-5
2nd #7 Repo Rocks 4-1
3rd #6 Zandon 5-1 / #3 Dr. Schivel 10-1 / #9 White Abrarrio 10-1

Race 11 Manhattan Stakes (Grade I)
Purse $750,000 10F Turf
In the last four years (2018, 2019, 2021, & 2022), three of the races the ML FAV or the post time FAV finished this race ITM (two 1st and one 3rd). Last year the ML FAV finished dead last. The horse that finished 1st was original ML 18-1 and post time ML 12-1. This race was not run during the 2020 Covid year. In 2018 and 2019 this was a $1,000,000 race. I don’t think that will happen again. Although, this is horse racing. LOL.

You all know how I love the American Pharoah offspring. Well, we have one today in this race, however, I am actually hesitant about taking it. The #9 Ocean Atlantique with Saez on the mount, Michael Maker, and Three Diamond Farms is normally a pretty decent trio. Out of the last 27 mounts Saez has had, he has 14- 1st and 2nd’s, 0- 3rd’s, and the rest (13) 4th or higher. I am not really liking those odds.

I do like #8 Up to the Mark 8-5. This horse started racing on turf this year and has done well. All four races he has finished “ITM” (3-1st and 1- 3rd). Next, the #3 Warren Point 5-2 just came to the US from overseas and raced its first race at Belmont last month. He finished 5th, but I am going to chalk that up to getting accustomed to being over here. I am throwing in a longshot in with the #7 Rockemperor 12-1. This horse now has Pratt on the mount who does pretty well at the longer distances on turf. Now, this is the first time Pratt has been on this horse, however, I still think there is a better chance for this horse with him on the mount. Couple that with Chad Brown and owners Madaket Stables, Michael Dubb, and Michael Caruso and we just may have something here.

MY PICK
1st #8 Up to the Mark 8-5
2nd #3 Warren Point 5-2
3rd #7 Rockemperor 12-1

RACE 12 Belmont Stakes (Grade I)
Purse $1.5 Million 12F Dirt
The ML Fav became the post time Fav and has won this race 4 of the 5 years. Only in 2019 did the FAV finish 2nd. Sir Winston, who went off at (10-1) , won the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes. Tacitus, the Kentucky Derby winner and the morning-line favorite, finished second.

AND THE WINNER IS: #6 Forte 5-2

MY PICK FOR 2ND & 3RD
#2 Tapit Trice 3-1
#9 Red Route One 15-1
#4 National Treasure 5-1

RACE 13 Allowance
Purse $80,000 8.5F Turf
Based on the last 5-years 2022-2018 the 3rd place horse has been BIG odds, 19-1, 25-1, 17-1, 8-1 and 30-1. FURTHERMORE The FAV has not finished in the money except in 2022 and 2020. In fact, 2022 was the first time the Fav has won in 10-years.

Going with local talent #8 Barrel of Quests 15-1, Dylan Davis jockey, David Donk Trainer and Owners Tri County Stables all NYRA New York! I’ll take #3 Clear Conscience 5-1 and #1 Spirit of St Louis 5-2 to round it out!

MY PICK
1st #8 Barrel of Quests 15-1
2nd #3 Clear Conscience 5-1
3rd #1 Spirit of St Louis 5-2

BELMONT BETH’S DERBY DAY SELECTIONS FOR
DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 3, 4, 5 AND 6 SELECTIONS

RACE 1 9.3.6.7
RACE 2 7.4.2.5
RACE 3 4.1.3.5
RACE 4 1.7.10
RACE 5 (1) SINGLE
RACE 6 4.5.7
RACE 7 6.4
RACE 8 10.6.7
RACE 9 11.9.12
RACE 10 (1) SINGLE
RACE 11 8.3.7
RACE 12 (6) SINGLE
RACE 13 8.3.1.5

[Author]

Posts