[consensus Choice]

BELMONT RACE 6 ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 10/10/2019

RACE 6 – 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf) NY-Bred Optional Claiming 40,000/N2X

1 – SHIRAZ (7/2)

3 – BANANA THIEF (4/1)

2 – ELEKTRONIC (5/1)

4 – BOURBON MISSION (6/1)

6 – FAST GETAWAY (6/1)

7 – CATCH A CAB (6/1)

8 – MO MAVERICK (8/1)

9 – DISCRETIONARY MARQ (8/1)

 

1 – SHIRAZ has just missed in 2 straight turf sprints at this level at Saratoga and Belmont in August and September. Problem is this one has lost 9 straight races and his lifetime turf record is 22-1-8-4. His record at the distance is 11-1-5-1. His Belmont turf record is 12-1-7-1. Translation: Always finds a way to get beat.

3 – BANANA THIEF got up to win by a nose vs. 25k claimers last out. What is enticing is his prior race was a narrow loss in exactly this spot behind excellent NY turf sprinter Dowse’s Beach. By comparison his Belmont turf record is 14-3-4-2. His over lifetime turf record is 30-5-6-7. If you back him keep your fingers crossed. His last two wins were both by a nose.

2 – ELEKTRONIC seems to be the class of the race. Fourth in his last 2 in 100k turf sprint stakes, he just missed in the G3 Quik Call at Saratoga in July. Has won twice in Belmont turf sprints and trainer Linda Rice is 19% in turf sprints and 21% in allowance races. Comes from off the pace but closer to the leader than Banana Thief when he starts his rally.

4 – BOURBON MISSION has won twice for Irad Ortiz in his last 4 and comes off a win vs state-bred Alw N1X. Like Elektronic he only has 7 lifetime starts and sits a stalker position. Trainer Joe Sharp is 29% in Turf sprints and the 6/1 is juicy in this spot.

6 – FAST GETAWAY another Linda Rice trainee is 4-2-2-0 at this turf distance and had run 4 fine turf sprints at or about this level prior to spitting out the bit last time. That was 3 months ago, and he won off a 6-month layoff last April. As the Morning Line demonstrates, this is a wide-open race which makes it harder to handicap but also means you are likely to get paid handsomely if you get it right.

 

 

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