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BELMONT PARK STAKES SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS – SATURDAY – 9/7/2019
8TH RACE – JOCKEY CLUB INVITATIONAL $300,000
EXPERT SELECTIONS: 7/8/4-1-5DETAILED ANALYSIS
7 – MARCONI (2/1) – In a replay of the G2 Brooklyn Invitational, this one took them all the way that day and I expect him to do it again. He was in way too tough in the (G2) Suburban behind Preservationist (who came back to win the (G1) Woodward) and Catholic Boy. Last time he was a distant second in the $100k Birdstone at 1 ¾ miles, at a distance too far for him. The Brooklyn was his third win in a row and he returns to a spot where he can shine.
4 – REALM (6/1) – Has lost twice to the top horse while contesting the pace with him. Both of those losses were by less than a length and expect a similar setup here. If Marconi for some reason isn’t fine tuned for this race, he could take advantage of the situation at three times the price.
8 – ROCKETRY (5/2) – Loves it the farther they run winning at 1 ¾ miles and 1 5/8 miles. He has finished behind Marconi in 4 of his last 5 races. Still, if he gets the right pace setup, he could take it all. He only missed by a diminishing ½ length in the Brooklyn.
9TH RACE – JOCKEY CLUB OAKS INVITATIONAL $750,000
EXPERT SELECTIONS: 1-5-2-6/8
DETAILED ANALYSIS
5 – LOVE SO DEEP (9/2) – In a puzzling race, going with a horse who is improving, has 2 sharp races in August, and gets Jamie Spencer to travel across the Atlantic for this race. Interesting that while this horse is a Japanese bred, she has raced almost exclusively in Europe.
3 – LADY PRANCEALOT (9/2) – Ships in from Del Mar where she got up for third to complete a nice trifecta behind Chad Brown’s brilliant Cambier Parc in the (G1) Del Mar Oaks. She is in fine form with solid efforts in her last 5 starts including winning the (G3) Honeymoon Handicap in her previous.
1 – EDISA (5/2) – Good runner up tries in small French Stakes and gets premier US turf rider Flavien Prat. Owned and bred by the Aga Khan so don’t think this one makes the trip just for the frequent flier miles. Hard to tell just how good the Euro raced horses are, but Euros always look pretty tough vs. most U.S. bred opponents.
8 – ART OF ALMOST (5/1) – Has run in the money vs. Graded company in her last 2 races but hasn’t closed the deal when well bet. Those races were at Woodbine and Arlington, second tier tracks. Nothing would surprise me in this race.
10TH RACE – JOCKEY CLUB DERBY $1,000,000
EXPERT SELECTIONS: 8/9-3-5-1/4
DETAILED ANALYSIS
8 – DIGITAL AGE (5/2) – Everything Chad Brown sends out is a contender. Couldn’t catch A Thread of Blue last time but gets 5/16 more ground and think that will make the difference. Has yet to run a bad one and think he makes his 3rd try in a million dollar race a winning one.
9 – SPANISH MOON (3/1) – Jamie Spencer again. Is this the Breeders’ Cup? This one looks even better than Love So Deep. Sharp races in last 2 in England at or about this distance. Might be making a mistake not putting this one on top. Sharp Euro invaders should always receive the utmost respect.
3 – HENLEY’S JOY (5/1) – This horse is a trier and won the G1 Belmont Derby beating Digital Age. Couldn’t catch a loose on the lead front running winner last time but think this one will benefit by the added distance. Record on Turf is 11-4-3-0.
1 – A THREAD OF BLUE (4/1) – Went gate to wire in $1 million Saratoga Derby Invitational but must carry his speed over a quarter of a mile farther. Not impossible task but not willing to bet on it. Will take them as far as he can.
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