BELMONT PARK RACE 7 ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 10/12/2019

[consensus Choice]

BELMONT PARK RACE 7 ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY – 10/12/2019

RACE 7 – 6 FURLONGS (TURF) – FLORAL PARK STAKES $100,000

6 – GOLDWOOD (7/5)

1 – FIRE KEY (5/2)

7 – MOMINOU (7/2)

3 – FEAR NO EVIL (8/1)

 

6 – GOLDWOOD was scratched out of a G3 yesterday to run in this easier spot. She has won 5 in a row and 8 of her last 12. In her last 5 races, four at Monmouth and one at Laurel, she was running vs this type in races worth $71k-$100k, so she fits on class. She also sits right on top of the pace. She has not won at 6 Furlongs but has only tried it twice and won at 5 ½ Furlongs on turf in 3 of her last 5. Must respect a horse with 18 turf starts winning at a 50% rate.

1 – FIRE KEY just missed by half a length behind the top horse last time at Laurel. Six Furlongs is an ideal distance for her with a record of 11-6-4-0. Since September 2018, she has won the 125k License Fee and this race last year both at Belmont. She also won the 100k Sensible Lady last year at Laurel. While she isn’t the win machine the top horse is, she fits and gets the perfect distance for her. Major threat to take it all.

7 – MOMINOU is going to give Goldwood all she can handle on the front end as she has keen early speed and has gone gate to wire 3 times, including the $200k Caress at Saratoga in July beating Fire Key. She did lose the pace battle to the top horse in her previous at Monmouth.

3 – FEAR NO EVIL doesn’t win. Lifetime turf record 20-3-3-7. She has lost her last 10 starts, although did finish in the money in close losses behind Goldwood one back and 3 times behind Fire Key. If I use her it will be underneath only.

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