[consensus Choice]

BELMONT PARK RACE 4 ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY – 10/10/2019

RACE 4 – 6 Furlongs (Turf) Claiming 32,000

2 – KITTEN’S CAT (7/5) 

8 – END PLAY (8/5)

 7 – SWIPING DAN (5/2)

6 – MACHTREE (9/2) 

5 – PSYCHIC ENERGY (8/1)

 

2 – KITTEN’S CAT drops in from Optional 62K/N2X off 2 in the money finishes at Kentucky Downs in August and September. While favorites dropping in class of good recent races usually run very well, this guy has lost 8 straight races and has a propensity for settling for minor awards (lifetime turf record 25-4-6-7). He drops to his lowest level in his last dozen starts so unless they are just trying to unload him, this is his easiest chance in the last 17 months.

8 – END PLAY nearly won first race off the claim by 29% trainer Jason Servis coming from eight to second beaten only half a length in a 50k starter allowance race. He also drops to a low that goes back to Oct. 2017. He also likes to nibble (lifetime turf record 28-4-4-6). Tough to take short odds on such unreliable horses on the win end. Drops below the 40k claiming price of previous race signaling that an all-out effort should be coming as they are already risking an $8,000 loss on what they claimed him for.

6 – MACH TREE came from dead last to win at 5 ½ on turf at Colonial in his prior start. That was his only sprint in his last 12 starts and it came vs 40k optional claimers. Gets a 1/16 of mile more distance and Brendan Walsh has two interesting trainer stats, he is 25% in turf sprints and with horses going from route to sprints.

5 – PSYCHIC ENERGY is interesting from a pace angle. In a race with the top contenders coming from well back, this one went gate to wire in his third race back at Aqueduct in April. at this distance vs 40k optional claimers. He got caught in May to finish third. In July he was dropped to 25k and showed no speed at all. He was claimed out of that race by Mertkan Kantarmaci, not exactly a household name. However, he is 25% first race off the claim and in turf sprints. If he gets away cleanly, he could be tough to catch at 8/1 or higher.

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