2023 DERBY SOFTWARE RESULTS AND PICKS update 050523

So the favorite #15 rated 16^th using the MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING Software. Most of the horses above it were 8/1 or higher with the third choice going off at 50/1 odds (#7). #15 was only top ranked for (first half energy consumption), (earnings) and (rank of last work). #15 is not impressive when it comes to pace especially (Late Pace) (78-90-96). Some other horses have (Late Pace) ranging from (106 – 108).

My longshot picks looking at every thing from BEST and down the line

#4 20/1 – #6 12/1 – #14 8/1 – #3 12/1 – #10 10/1 – #11 30/1 – #9 20/1

SHOCKERS #19 30/1 #1 30/1 #7 50/1

MY BETS Win 4/6/14/10/11/3 in this order I might use the favorite #15 in place/show on an exacta or trifecta. I really have to see how the RACE STYLE plays out (that’s not to say that two longshots couldn’t make for an exciting exacta).

MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING Software I have attached a spreadsheet with the top four rated in each category. You can see the actual results on my ad free site (dot) = “.” derby(dot)2ya(dot)com because of time constraint I didn’t want this post MODERATED.

WINNING AT THE TRACK by David L. Christopher software 1986

I have kept the also listed horses 21-23 as in past years a horse has been scratched prior to the race.

I also list results with the extra horses removed.

BEST FOUR BEST FOUR 21-23 REMOVED

#23 King 50/1 3637 # 3 Two 12/1 2816

# 3 Two 12/1 2817 #15 Forte 3/1 2794

#15 Forte 3/1 2795 # 8 Mage 15/1 2779

#22 Mandarin 20/2 2783 # 9 Skinner 20/1 2767

SPEED SPEED 21-23 REMOVED

#23 King 50/1 195 #15 Forte 3/1 70

#21 Cyclone 30/1 72 # 8 Mage 15/1 69

#15 Forte 3/1 70 #10 Practical 10/1 69

#10 Practical 10/1 69 # 9 Skinner 20/1 65

LAST QUARTER LAST QUARTER 21-23 REMOVED

# 3 Two 20/1 167 Horses 21-23 did not appear in this category

#14 Angel 8/1 165

# 9 Skinner 20/1 164

# 6 Kingsbarn 12/1 164

I have a spreadsheet listing the top 4 results for the 27 categories which are the result of using the “MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING” software. It is attached below.

I have entertained the breakdown of Past Performance using the following criteria. The results are as follows with the first horse being the best to meet the parameters. Horses 21* – 23* are included.

Horse #15 is the favorite horse 3/1

#1 Regular PP – the important thing here is to determine a class ranking for the horse based upon running times of a race. This is my breakdown of exceptional times to look for:

 
<p align=”LEFT”>It depends on the distance whether you use speed or pace as an indicator.  For example according to the book “Modern Pace Handicapping”  6 furlong and route races over 1 1/16 you want to use pace.  The rest are better facilitated by speed.  Dropping in class is always best if the times of the race merit a true indicator of class (5f  :55-:57; 6f 1:07-1:08; 6.5f 1:14-1:18; 7f 1:20-1:22; 8f 1:33-1:35; 1 1/16 1:39-1:42; 1 1/8  1:47-1:49; 1 1/4 1:57-1:59) I don’t care what the horse’s odds are if they meet these indicators.  So once I have a contender I look at the quarter times of their last race especially if it is close to the same distance of today’s race.  HINT: if the horse’s fractional quarter time is the same as the leaders then you have a real contender to blow away the competition.</p>
Horses 17 – 20 – 10 – 9 – 22* – 3 – 8 – 7 – 14 – 18 – 21* – 22*

#2 Leader’ s Fractions – In this case we are looking at Past performance listing of the incremental fractions of the horse in the lead for a race. These fractions can be useful when compared to the participant horse’s incremental fractions.

Horses 17 – 20 – 3 – 6 didn’t have enough data for determination

Horses 1 – 3 – 13 – 14 – 4 – 15 – 21* – 22* – 7 – 8 – 9 – 10 – 16 – 18 – 19

#3 Horse’s Fractions – There are two things that I am looking for here 1) as mentioned above how do these fraction compare with the Leader’s Fractions and 2) How do the Fractions look especially when compared to previous races in which the horse has run. If the horse improves in two of the four fractions and especially if one of those is the last fraction of a same previous distance race.

Horses 4 – 14 – 21* – 3 – 1 – 8 – 11 – 13 – 15 – 16 – 18 – 19 – 23* – 5 – 7 – 9 – 10

#4 Power Ratings – A breakdown of horses from TOP – BOTTOM

Horses 15 – 1 – 5 – 3 – 2 – 10

#5 Speed Points – A breakdown of horses with the greatest Speed Ranking from TOP – BOTTOM

Horses 2 – 10 – 4 – 6 – 7 – 8

#6 Running Style – A breakdown of horses from early running to late running capabilities E – S

Horses 14 – 9 – 3 – 11 – 10 – 7 – 21* – 18 LAST RACE

Horses 14 – 9 – 3 – 2 – 11 – 10 – 15 – 7 LOCATED IN PAST PERFORMANCES NOT LAST RACE