OAKLAWN PARK

SOUTHWEST STAKES CARD

JANUARY 29, 2022

ANALYSIS IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE

RACE 4 – MARTHA WASHINGTON – $200,000 1 1/6 MILES

#4 OPTIONALITY 9/5 – HAS BEEN AWESOME WINNING HER LAST 3 POWERFULLY BY A COMBINED 20 LENGTHS. SHE DID THIS BREAKING HER MAIDEN BY 6 AT INDIANA GRAND AND WINNING THE $50K PRINCESS STAKES AT ZIA PARK AND THE $100K TRAPEZE AT REMINGTON PARK. HER LAST WAS HER FIRST ROUTE TRY AND SHE HANDLED IT WITH EASE. ANOTHER GUN RUNNER PRODIGY, STEVE ASMUSSEN TRAINS AND STABLE JOCKEY RICARDO SANTANA RIDES.

#6 SECRET OATH 2/1 – HAS BEEN EQUALLY BRILLIANT BREAKING HER MAIDEN BY 5 AT CHURCHILL DOWNS AND WINNING A NON-CONDITIONED ALLOWANCE RACE HERE BY 8 LAST TIME. DISCONCERTING TO SEE HER GET THRASHED IN THE G2 GOLDEN ROD AT CHURCHILL IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO RACES, BUT SHE IS PROVEN ON THE BIG-LEAGUE CIRCUIT WHILE THE LIKELY FAVORITE IS COMING FROM SECOND TIER TRACKS. THE RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD TODAY. TALK ABOUT BREEDING, THIS ONE IS A DAUGHTER OF CHAMPION ARROGATE. D. WAYNE LUKAS TRAINS.

#3 COMO SQUARE 5/2 – IS UNDEFEATED IN 2 STARTS FOR TRAINER BRAD COX. WHILE NOT AS FLASHY OR AS FAST EARLY AS THE TOP 2, SHE WILL BE FLYING TURNING FOR HOME.

RACE 9 – SOUTHWEST STAKES G3 – $750,000 1 1/6 MILES

#10 NEWGRANGE 2/1 – BOB BAFFERT RUNNER, IS 2 FOR 2, BREAKING HIS MAIDEN AND THEN WINNING THE SHAM STAKES BY 3 AT SANTA ANITA. BAFFERT HAS USED THE OAKLAWN TRIPLE CROWN STAKES SERIES AS HIS PERSONAL ATM WINNING THE SOUTHWEST, REBEL AND ARKANSAS DERBY.

IN RECENT YEARS MOST NOTABLY WITH EVENTUAL TRIPLE CROWN WINNER AMERICAN PHAROAH, FUTURE DERBY AND PREAKNESS RUNNER UP BODEMEISTER, SECRET CIRCLE, CONCERT TOUR, NADAL, CUPID, HOPPERTUNITY, THE FACTOR, LOOKIN AT LUCKY, AND CHARLATAN JUST TO NAME A FEW.

YOU MUST RESPECT THIS HORSE AND TRAINER. BAFFERT ONLY SENDS RUNNERS HERE WHO HE THINKS ARE SERIOUS CONTENDERS AS HIS PAST SUCCESS MAKES VERY CLEAR.

#2 DASH ATTACK 7/2 – JUST WON THE SMARTY JONES, THE FIRST OAKLAWN DERBY PREP. HE CAME FROM WELL BEHIND AS DID ALL THE TOP FINISHERS AS THE PACE FELL APART OVER A SLOPPY TRACK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS HORSE HAS HAD SUCCESS LAYING CLOSER AND HE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSER GIVEN THE EARLY SPEED OF THE TOP HORSE AND LIKELY FAVORITE NEWGRANGE.

#8 BARBER ROAD 5/1 – FINISHED SECOND BEHIND DASH ATTACK. HE WAS MOVING RIGHT WITH THE WINNER FROM THE TOP OF THE STRETCH BUT COULDN’T OUTFINISH HIM. IS CAPABALE OF ALSO BEING PUT INTO THE RACE EARLIER AS SHOULD BE REQUIRED HERE IF THEY HOPE TO CATCH NEWGRANGE.

#6 OSBOURNE 8/1 – COMES HERE FRESH FROM FINISHING A GOOD SECOND IN THE $400K SPRINGBOARD STAKES AT REMINGTON PARK. THAT RACE PRODUCED LONGSHOT WINNER SUDDENBEAKINGNEWS IN 2016. HE IS THE ONE HORSE MOST LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO NEW GRANGE EARLY.

#7 IGNITIS 10/1 – TRAINED BY D. WAYNE LUKAS, WHO KNOWS A THING OR TWO ABOUT WINNING TRIPLE CROWN RACES, THIS HORSE WAS THIRD IN THE SMARTY JONES. HE IS ONE OF SEVEN SMARTY JONES RUNNERS TO WHEEL BACK LOOKING FOR A BETTER OUTCOME IN THE SOUTHWEST.

RACE 10 – KING COTTON – $150,000 6 FURLONGS

#4 COLLUSION ILLUSION 3/1 – WAS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON WINNING 4 OF HIS FIRST 5 STARTS. HOWEVER, HE TOO WAS ON THE SHELF A LONG TIME AFTER FINISHING THIRD IN THE G1 MAILBU AT SANTA ANITA. HIS LAST 2 RACES LOOK BAD ON PAPER, BUT THE FIRST WAS ON THE TURF OFF A LAYOFF AND HIS LAST WAS IN THE G2 SA SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP. HE IS FACING HIS EASIEST SPOT IN A LONG TIME. HE COULD BE READY FOR A BIG SHOWING TODAY.

#6 NASHVILLE 5/2 – NASHVILLE WAS BRILLIANT IN HIS FIRST 3 STARTS DISPLAYING EYE OPENING SPEED, DEMOLISHING HIS OPPONENTS. HE FOUND THE SLEDDING A LITTLE TOUGHER IN THE G1 MALIBU AT SANTA ANITA WHERE HE FADED TO FOURTH AFTER LEADING THE FIRST HALF OF THE RACE AND THAT LED TO A YEAR LAYOFF SO SOMETHING OBVIOUSLY WENT WRONG WITH HIM. QUESTION IS WAS HIS COMEBACK RACE JUST A TUNE UP FOR THIS OR IS HE NOT THE SAME AMAZING HORSE HE SHOWED IN HIS FIRST 3 RACES. THE CROWD IS CERTAIN TO GIVE HIM ANOTHER CHANCE AT A SHORT PRICE. WE WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

#1 HOLLIS 4/1 – ONLY HAS A COUPLE OF MINOR STAKES WINS ON HIS CARD BUT HE JUST BEAT LIKELY FAVORITE, NASHVILLE, IN HIS RETURN TO THE RACES AND HE DID IT CONVINCINGLY. SITTING JUST OFF OF NASHVILLE’S EARLY LEAD IN SECOND, AND THEN MOVING TO THE LEAD AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH TO WIN BY 4 LENGTHS GOING AWAY. HARD TO IGNORE THAT WIN, EVEN IF YOU BELIEVE THAT NASHVILLE WASN’T FULLY CRANKED UP FOR HIS RETURN. MAY BE WORTH A WAGER AS THE CROWD WILL LIKELY HAMMER NASHVILLE AGAIN AND YOU WILL LIKELY GET ODDS OF 4/1 OR HIGHER ON THIS ONE DESPITE HIS SUPERIORITY OVER NASHVILLE LAST TIME.