Actually, I liked this race because #14 (8/1) had a +36 point gain in his ABILITY figure even though his numbers were low.  When you add going up in distance this can lead to great overlays!

I use the PICKS category when trying out new theories. I pick my races by looking at E-P oddsline compared to Morning Line odds.  If I see a lot of 8/1 and greater ML horses with a single digit rating from E-P then this race scenerio becomes playable.  Sample result 12/22/23 Turfway Park race #6. Winner #11 paid $154.

results 12/22/23 Turfway Park Race #6  Winner #11 $154

results resubmitted!